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Posts Tagged ‘Economy’

What is The Real Rate of Unemployment in the United States?

Posted by Larry Doyle on August 13th, 2010 8:06 AM |

Just what is the true rate of unemployment in our country? Our headline U-3 rate is currently 9.5%. Our U-6 rate, more broadly defined, is 16.5%.

Many people are aware of the differences between U-3 and U-6; however, renowned economist John Williams takes our analysis to an entirely new level. Williams is far ahead of the curve in his work.

William is likely not a regular on the Washington cocktail circuit. Why’s that? He goes far deeper in his work and exposes inconsistencies, if not worse, in government statistics. Let’s learn more about Williams and his work at Shadow Government Statistics:>>>> (more…)

How Long Will ‘Walking Pneumonia’ Economy Last?

Posted by Larry Doyle on July 20th, 2010 6:28 AM |

I have told many people that I equate our current economic situation to a serious case of ‘walking pneumonia.’ If you have suffered from that dreadful malady, as I have, you can appreciate my sentiments. While we are going to live, and will move on from our current condition, the question everybody wants to know is how long will this sluggish, sickening episode last?

I wish I was so prescient as to be able to pinpoint the month and year when our economy may return to real vitality. I am neither that smart nor that egotistical. I do strongly believe, though, that we are looking at a number of years of continued underperformance. (more…)

Consumer Metrics Institute: Double Dip Mild, but Prolonged

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 27th, 2010 6:54 AM |

Is the economy slipping into a double dip or has it already slipped and we just need to wait a few months for the mainstream media to hopefully report on it?

Clearly, our domestic and global economies are very fluid and subject to serious fluctuations given the massive amount of government intervention, but where can we go to receive a real-time look at the economy?

Let’s review the work of Sense on Cents Hall of Famer Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute. Recall that Rick and his colleagues capture and review a wealth of consumer retail data across ten sectors of our economy on a ‘real time’ basis. While analysts are downstream assessing developments with production, Rick and team are way upstream assessing what the consumers are doing NOW. Current consumer activity is highly correlated with GDP out 17-18 weeks. Yes, we are getting a sneak peek at next quarter’s GDP now. Amazing stuff.

What does Rick see and what does he project? Let’s navigate. (more…)

What Happened to Focus on Jobs?

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 16th, 2010 9:38 AM |

If America and Americans are not at work, then how can we truly expect any other initiatives and undertakings to gain a foothold? There is nothing that generates more personal and collective confidence than a job. In fact, I would go even further and state that a job not only generates personal confidence for individuals, but ultimately a job very often defines a person’s self-worth.

Then why is it that the topic of jobs is not the OVERWHELMING focus in Washington eight days a week? While President Obama elevated the focus on job growth in his State of the Union speech, the topic seems to receive front page coverage only on the first Friday of the month when unemployment statistics are released. (more…)

March 14, 2010: Economic/Market Week in Review

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 14th, 2010 9:31 AM |

No rest for the weary given the slew of developments on Wall Street, in Washington, and around the world. That said, are the markets getting tired or are they preparing to receive another jolt of government caffeine?

Welcome to our Sense on Cents Week in Review where I provide a streamlined recap of the major economic data and news, along with month-to-date market returns.

ECONOMIC DATA
Overall, we did not receive a lot of economic news this week but what we did receive was decidedly mixed (although that is not exactly how it was presented). Let’s navigate.

1. Jobless Claims: remained stubbornly high at 460k jobs. Congress extended unemployment benefits until year end as the long-term unemployed remain at extremely high levels. This structural unemployment receives little media attention, but is THE critical issue in our economy. (more…)

Duke/CFO Survey: Good News and Bad News

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 4th, 2010 10:01 AM |

What can we learn from those who sign the checks at over a thousand companies around our country? Let’s review a synopsis of a recently released Duke University CFO Survey. This analysis, On the Mend, is presented by CFO Magazine:

At last, some good news. For the first time in more than a year, finance chiefs expect double-digit growth in earnings and significant growth in capital spending over the next 12 months, according to the Duke University/CFOMagazine Global Business Outlook Survey for the first quarter of 2010. Finance chiefs are also loosening the reins on technology spending, research and development spending, and marketing and advertising spending.

The welcome news doesn’t come without a few troubling reservations, however. (more…)

February 20, 2010: Market Week in Review

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 20th, 2010 7:54 AM |

Markets rebounded strongly this week. In the process, most of the major market equity averages, commodity indices, and bond ETFs recouped January’s declines and are now back close to their December 31, 2009 levels. What happened?

Welcome to our Sense on Cents Week in Review where I provide a streamlined recap of the major economic data and news, along with month-to-date market returns.

ECONOMIC DATA

A lot of news and data this week. Some good. Some not so good. Let’s dive right in. (more…)

February 13, 2010: Market Week in Review

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 13th, 2010 8:12 AM |

Markets remain volatile and skittish. Why? Our global economy along with our domestic economy remain under the pressure of massive debts and deficits across the sovereign, corporate, and consumer spectrum.

Global governments can not prop economies and markets forever, try as they might. Can 2010 successfully transition from these total government supported and propped markets to a hoped for return to private enterprise with private capital? This week brought us more ups and downs in the markets as the economy overall searches for its footing. We remain a long way from being out of the woods. Pack lightly and lets navigate.

Welcome to our Sense on Cents Week in Review where I provide a streamlined recap of the major economic news and month-to-date market returns.   (more…)

Will the EU ‘Greece the Wheels?’

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 9th, 2010 11:03 AM |

The recent market volatility reflects the fact that our overall economic and market foundations are anything but secure. In fact, dare I say the market over the last few weeks resembles a rollercoaster. While our market rollercoaster, with Uncle Sam’s assistance, climbed the wall of worry in 2009, so far in 2010 we are cascading along and taking some hard turns at full speed. Keep those seats belt fastened.

What has precipitated our 1% upward move this morning? News from the Euro-zone that the EU will backstop Greece’s budget deficit or, if I could stick with our theme, the EU will “greece the wheels” of our rollercoaster. (more…)

Greenspan: U-Shaped Recovery

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 8th, 2010 11:30 AM |

Alan Greenspan is certainly not viewed in the same light now as he was during a large part of his tenure as chairman of the Federal Reserve. That said, when the former Fed chair speaks, people do listen. What is he saying now? Greenspan is throwing some cold water on the topic of a V-shaped economic recovery. Bloomberg highlights his views this morning in writing, Greenspan Sees ‘Slow’ Recovery, Is ‘Concerned’ if Stocks Drop:

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said a U.S. economic recovery is “going to be a slow, trudging thing,” and that he “would get very concerned” if stock prices continue to fall. (more…)






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