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Archive for the ‘Consumer Confidence’ Category

How Long Will ‘Walking Pneumonia’ Economy Last?

Posted by Larry Doyle on July 20th, 2010 6:28 AM |

I have told many people that I equate our current economic situation to a serious case of ‘walking pneumonia.’ If you have suffered from that dreadful malady, as I have, you can appreciate my sentiments. While we are going to live, and will move on from our current condition, the question everybody wants to know is how long will this sluggish, sickening episode last?

I wish I was so prescient as to be able to pinpoint the month and year when our economy may return to real vitality. I am neither that smart nor that egotistical. I do strongly believe, though, that we are looking at a number of years of continued underperformance. (more…)

If The Market Declined 15% . . .

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 28th, 2009 9:22 AM |

. . . would you be surprised? What would you do? What if the market declined by 20%? Would you be surprised? What would you do? How about if the market rose by 10% to 20%? Would you be surprised? I would.

The reason I ask these questions is an attempt to address the fundamental question as to what the market is telling us and what American consumers believe.

The equity market has traditionally been a reliable indicator of the future economy. The market provides a discounted valuation of future earnings. Those earnings drive companies and the economy at large.

As the market declines and prospects wane, businesses and consumers react accordingly. On the other side of the coin, as the market improves forecasting an improving economy, businesses and consumers react accordingly . . . until now. What is going on? (more…)






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