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HomeSteady Decline Through 2060?
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 28th, 2010 1:12 PM |
What type of legacy are we leaving our kids? Will we leave them so burdened with overwhelming debts and deficits so as to strangle and choke off real opportunities? While Uncle Sam is able to play charades in an ever increasing and dramatic fashion, Sam’s smaller brethren at the state and local levels do not have those capabilities.
On that note, let’s look westward. I wrote in May 2009, “As California’s Economy Goes, So Goes the Country.” Along the same line, today we read from Bloomberg, States of Crisis for 46 Governments Facing Greek-Style Deficits:
Californians don’t see much evidence that the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression is coming to an end. (more…)
White House Sees Elevated Unemployment for ‘Extended Period’
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 16th, 2010 11:43 AM |
Is the White House reading Sense on Cents?
While I ask that question in a self-effacing fashion, I will allow others to pass muster as to whether my commentary deserves attention in Washington. Why do I ask that question now though? I wrote this morning, “What Happened to Focus on Jobs?”:
The ‘talking points’ utilized by those in Washington project that our economy and markets are experiencing cyclical unemployment. I firmly believe they are wrong. Our economy and markets are experiencing structural unemployment.
Now it appears as if the White House ‘talking points’ have changed. (more…)
What Happened to Focus on Jobs?
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 16th, 2010 9:38 AM |
If America and Americans are not at work, then how can we truly expect any other initiatives and undertakings to gain a foothold? There is nothing that generates more personal and collective confidence than a job. In fact, I would go even further and state that a job not only generates personal confidence for individuals, but ultimately a job very often defines a person’s self-worth.
Then why is it that the topic of jobs is not the OVERWHELMING focus in Washington eight days a week? While President Obama elevated the focus on job growth in his State of the Union speech, the topic seems to receive front page coverage only on the first Friday of the month when unemployment statistics are released. (more…)
Larry Kudlow on Janet Yellen
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 13th, 2010 7:13 AM |
President Obama will likely nominate Janet Yellen of the San Francico Fed to replace Donald Kohn as number two in the hieracrchy at the Federal Reserve behind Fed Chair Ben Bernanke.
What can we learn about Ms. Yellen? Let’s read Larry Kudlow, a highly regarded economist and market practitioner with extensive experience on Wall Street, in Washington, and on the airwaves. Kudlow and Yellen look at the economy from a decidedly different perspective. Kudlow recently wrote of Ms. Yellen’s nomination and what it says about the Obama administration in his Kudlow’s Commentary:
The new Obama Fed is going to be very dovish when it comes to fighting future inflation and defending the value of the dollar. (more…)
Duke/CFO Survey: Good News and Bad News
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 4th, 2010 10:01 AM |
What can we learn from those who sign the checks at over a thousand companies around our country? Let’s review a synopsis of a recently released Duke University CFO Survey. This analysis, On the Mend, is presented by CFO Magazine:
At last, some good news. For the first time in more than a year, finance chiefs expect double-digit growth in earnings and significant growth in capital spending over the next 12 months, according to the Duke University/CFOMagazine Global Business Outlook Survey for the first quarter of 2010. Finance chiefs are also loosening the reins on technology spending, research and development spending, and marketing and advertising spending.
The welcome news doesn’t come without a few troubling reservations, however. (more…)
Greenspan: U-Shaped Recovery
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 8th, 2010 11:30 AM |
Alan Greenspan is certainly not viewed in the same light now as he was during a large part of his tenure as chairman of the Federal Reserve. That said, when the former Fed chair speaks, people do listen. What is he saying now? Greenspan is throwing some cold water on the topic of a V-shaped economic recovery. Bloomberg highlights his views this morning in writing, Greenspan Sees ‘Slow’ Recovery, Is ‘Concerned’ if Stocks Drop:
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said a U.S. economic recovery is “going to be a slow, trudging thing,” and that he “would get very concerned” if stock prices continue to fall. (more…)
Unemployment Report: February 5, 2010
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 5th, 2010 8:58 AM |
The widely anticipated February Unemployment Report covering the month of January was just released. Let’s dive right in and take a look at the numbers . . .
I. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
August: 9.4%
September: 9.7%
October: 9.8%
November: 10.2%…revised to 10.1%
December: 10%
January: 10%
– February Consensus Expectation: 10.1%
- February Actual: 9.7%
>> LD’s comments: A fluke. A drop in the rate would typically be viewed as a positive, but then why didn’t we see job growth? Today’s report indicates that a lot of people have given up looking for work, thus shrinking the overall labor pool. The U-6 (the underemployment rate) is now 16.5%. Better? Don’t be fooled. I think it is again more an indication that people are exiting the labor force overall. (more…)
CFO/Duke University Survey Paints Different Picture Than Federal Reserve
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 17th, 2009 9:24 AM |
A recently released survey of CFOs paints a decidedly different picture on the jobs front than that portrayed in yesterday’s Federal Reserve release. Let’s compare, contrast, and navigate the most important trail on our economic landscape.
The Federal Reserve’s statement yesterday:
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November suggests that economic activity has continued to pick up and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating. The housing sector has shown some signs of improvement over recent months. Household spending appears to be expanding at a moderate rate, though it remains constrained by a weak labor market, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment, though at a slower pace, and remain reluctant to add to payrolls;
In every report that I have read and heard, this statement has been portrayed as one in which the employment situation is improving. I am an optimist by nature, but one has to spin that statement very hard to view it as a sanguine outlook for jobs. (more…)
Have Mortgage Delinquencies Peaked?
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 8th, 2009 9:43 AM |
This past May, I designated mortgage delinquencies as “The Most Critical Economic Statistic.” I wrote then and continue to believe now:
Which economic statistic is the most important? Unemployment? Housing starts? Trade deficit? Inflation? Retail sales?
Well, they are all important . . . but as I review the many statistics, the economic data that I believe most significant are loan delinquencies.
While assorted analysts and economists have called the bottom in housing numerous times, rest assured a true bottom will not be established until we see a meaningful decline in mortgage delinquencies. Why? There is a strong correlation between delinquencies, defaults, and foreclosures. Until delinquencies decline, the supply of homes coming onto the market through the foreclosure process will not abate.
While analysts and economists have been wrong in their calls to this point, I keep my eyes and ears open when another entity calls a peak in the rate of delinquencies. I witnessed another one again this morning. (more…)
Jobs is Job #1
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 30th, 2009 9:34 AM |
“Kiss me!!”
“What?”
That’s right, I said, “Kiss me!!”
Many a businessman is familiar with the basic principle of “kiss me,” that is “Keep It Simple, Stupid.”
Regrettably, Washington is not familiar with that simplest of business principles. Legislative bills that run into the thousands of pages and admittedly go unread by our lawmakers prior to vote are often an unmitigated disaster for American business. How so?
These bills create an environment of uncertainty. What do business leaders do when they’re unsure of what is coming out of Washington and how it might impact their business? “When in doubt, wait it out.”
I witness increasing evidence of this basic business dynamic and believe it will be on full display this coming Thursday. What will happen Thursday? President Obama is hosting a Jobs Summit in Washington. Sounds like a reasonable idea given the domestic employment situation is so bad and getting worse, despite assertions to the contrary by a number of public officials and economists.
How convenient that the summit is being held Thursday. Why? This summit will provide plenty of photo ops and media coverage highlighting that Washington is hard at work addressing the employment situation right before the monthly unemployment report is released on Friday morning. Do not think for a second that the timing of this summit was not strategically scheduled to negate the negative impact of another weak report. (more…)
