Posted by Larry Doyle on September 7th, 2012 9:32 AM |
The September employment report was just released. Many analysts, economists, and political hacks will regurgitate the numbers 8.1 and 96k. These numbers represent respectively the current unemployment rate and the increase in non-farm payrolls.
While these numbers are of very real interest, they are not the most important number to gauge the health of our overall economy. What number is most important? 368k. What does that represent? (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 5th, 2011 9:13 AM |
The big exhale you may have just heard emanating from Washington follows a slightly better than expected unemployment report this morning.
I am happy to hear that the report is slightly better than expected and will address the particulars momentarily. I caution people not to make too much of this report, though. Why?
While the report may have exceeded expectations, let’s not lose sight of the fact that the expectations were not all that high at the outset.
Additionally, this report is backward looking. What have we seen and heard from a wide array of companies recently? Indications of further layoffs.
Those with a measure of ‘sense on cents‘ do not take reports on face value. Let’s dig a little deeper. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 20th, 2011 8:07 AM |
Over the last few years I have highlighted the fact that the deflationary impact of declining wages and home values gave cover to the Federal Reserve for maintaining an excessively easy monetary policy and pumping up asset prices via quantitative easing. That party would now seem to be over. Why?
There is no doubt that Fed chair Bernanke’s easy money has played an integral role in the inflation we are experiencing at the pump, in the supermarket, and across a number of other commodities.
As we continue to navigate the U.S. economic landscape circa 2011 and beyond, the ongoing decline in home values in many regions of our nation now would seem to be setting the table for an inflationary spike in housing costs. How so? What is going on here? (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 13th, 2010 7:01 AM |
Who would not admit that the ability to review plays in athletic contests has made for an overall better product? While continually questioning calls and plays would obviously detract from the pleasure of the game, I think most – if not all – fans truly appreciate the benefit of reviewing critically important plays so the outcome and integrity of the game are not compromised.
Can you imagine if we had the same ability to review the release of economic statistics?
Picture this. A key economic statistic is set to be released at 8:30am. Traders and investors the world over are hanging on the edge of their seats in anticipation. The number is released and commentators immediately hype the ‘headline’. But then, as those very commentators take their cameras to the floors of respective exchanges and trading floors, all of a sudden we witness a number of red flags thrown on the ‘field’ – that is, the trading floor – calling for a further review. In the hope of getting the call right, would our nation and our economy be better off if we allowed just such a process to occur? Why do I ask? (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 13th, 2010 8:06 AM |
Many people are aware of the differences between U-3 and U-6; however, renowned economist John Williams takes our analysis to an entirely new level. Williams is far ahead of the curve in his work.
William is likely not a regular on the Washington cocktail circuit. Why’s that? He goes far deeper in his work and exposes inconsistencies, if not worse, in government statistics. Let’s learn more about Williams and his work at Shadow Government Statistics:>>>> (more…)