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Archive for the ‘Unemployment’ Category

Part-Time America:Unemployment Rate of Little Value

Posted by Larry Doyle on July 14th, 2014 9:30 AM |

If the employment situation in our nation has improved so markedly, then why isn’t our economy growing more rapidly? I mean with an unemployment rate of 6.1%, wouldn’t it make sense that our economy would be generating a higher level of GDP?

If we were to simply rely upon the prognosis of those paid to spew a party line, then yes we should expect that lower unemployment levels would be highly correlated with an increased level of GDP. But when did we start to rely upon the party line to decipher what is truly happening as we navigate the economic landscape?

Not in the past, now, or in the future should we or will we take that tact at Sense on Cents.

So then why hasn’t the admittedly improved rate of the “officially” unemployed correlated to an improved rate of economic growth? A few specific reasons: (more…)

The Real Employment Situation in America

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 10th, 2014 6:39 AM |

The most recent employment report released this past Friday showed an increase in non-farm payrolls of only 113k jobs but a continued decline in the overall rate of unemployed to 6.6%.

While the growth in jobs is not what we would like, the overall rate of unemployment is not bad by historical measures, right?

To steal a phrase from the inimitable radio host Paul Harvey, “And now, the rest of the story.” (more…)

Census-gate: Whistleblowers Claim Pre-Election Labor Reports Manipulated

Posted by Larry Doyle on November 19th, 2013 8:42 AM |

. . .  the only way to deal with a whistleblower’s accusations – again, every single time and often against your own instincts – is with a hyper-bias toward believing that the informant is onto something big. Such a bias must impel you to investigate every claim ferociously.

Jack and Susy Welch, Reuters, May 1, 2012

Do you recall how former GE chairman Jack Welch was vilified by many in the mainstream media and our government for vociferously challenging the integrity of the pre-election October 2012 Employment Report? He was. As a reminder, back then Welch released this tweet:


What/Who Is Holding Back Small Business? Washington DC, That’s Who

Posted by Larry Doyle on August 9th, 2013 8:17 AM |

Put aside everything else that streams across the daily news wire, there is no doubt that the prevailing issue that causes the most concern for people in our nation is how they are putting bread on the table.

Yes, we can dispense with all the noise that spews forth from far too many sources, the issue that is most prominent to our economic well being remains JOBS, JOBS, JOBS. So where are the jobs and why aren’t they being created to any meaningfully degree a full five years after the outset of our economic crisis?  (more…)

Bernanke Walks It Back

Posted by Larry Doyle on July 18th, 2013 8:53 AM |

It took a few weeks, but the relatively recent smokescreen of a strengthening economy put forth by Ben Bernanke began to lift yesterday.

I find it especially interesting that it was not some new string of weak economic data that prompted the Fed chair to express increased caution about what is truly going on in the real world economy.

In fact, for what I believe might be the first time, Bernanke cautiously addressed the fact that the structural changes in our economy reflected in a significant decline in the labor force participation rate might be more indicative of our economic health than the actual unemployment rate.

A whiff of the truth amidst the daily diet of verbal diarrhea emanating from D.C? What a novel concept.   (more…)

January Unemployment Report: The Lord and Noah

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 1st, 2013 10:18 AM |

The unemployment report for January 2013 was released this morning and provides better than expected news on the surface but with some reasons for concern as well. Let’s navigate.

The Wall Street Journal review highlights the following:

Jobs growth for January fell short of expectations but continued at a moderate pace. However, The unemployment rate reversed course a bit, rising to 7.9 percent in January from 7.8 percent the month before. Analysts expected a 7.7 percent unemployment rate.  (more…)

Federal Reserve Misses The Target

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 13th, 2012 8:21 AM |

Stand back.

A marksman with a powerful weapon not properly focused on an appropriate target is capable of wreaking real havoc.

Who is the marksman? Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke. What is his powerful weapon? Monetary policy. What is the appropriate target? The level of employment in our nation. What might be the havoc? The list is too long but let’s start with a breakdown in the relationship between monetary policy and inflation and work our way to civil unrest. Havoc does not typically connote a well defined set of outcomes.

Am I being overly alarmist? I think not given the size of Bernanke’s weapon and how wildly off target he really is in the message he sent the markets just yesterday. What did he say?  (more…)

A Better December Jobs Report? Wait, Revise That

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 7th, 2012 9:38 AM |

The unemployment report for the month of November was just released and is better than expected with non-farm payrolls increasing by 146, 000 jobs and the overall unemployment rate dropping to 7.7%. Happy times are here again, right? Wait, revise that.

While many pundits in Washington and on Wall Street are more than welcome to go little further than the headline numbers, let’s go behind the curtain and look a little bit closer. What do we see? Ooh, what’s this on the very last line of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report . . .  (more…)

October Employment Report: What Really Happened?

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 5th, 2012 10:13 AM |

Was the unemployment report released this morning gamed by the powers that be in Washington? Former General Electric CEO Jack Welch thinks so and had this to say in a tweet released right after the report:

Well, while Welch and many others believe a conspiracy is at work, let’s take a harder look at the numbers.

September Employment Report: 368k Exit Labor Pool

Posted by Larry Doyle on September 7th, 2012 9:32 AM |

The September employment report was just released. Many analysts, economists, and political hacks will regurgitate the numbers 8.1 and 96k. These numbers represent respectively the current unemployment rate and the increase in non-farm payrolls.

While these numbers are of very real interest, they are not the most important number to gauge the health of our overall economy. What number is most important? 368k. What does that represent? (more…)

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