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HomeConsumer Financial Protection or Wall Street Beats Main Street?
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 3rd, 2010 9:49 AM |
News that a newly proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency will be housed within the Federal Reserve is another shot across the bow in terms of Wall Street owning Washington and beating Main Street.
Am I surprised by these results? Not at all. The power of the Wall Street lobby is enormous and ultimately the crowd in Washington needs the money from Wall Street in order to pretend they represent the interests of Main Street. All the press conferences and politicking on the topic of consumer financial protection truly amount to nothing more than pure bluster. The bottom line of Wall Street banks feeds the bottom line of many politicians in Washington on both sides of the aisle. (more…)
Dollar Carry Trade Remains in Vogue
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 4th, 2009 3:47 PM |
Today’s price action in the markets is very telling. What is it telling us? The dollar carry trade remains in vogue and technicals continue to dominate overall flows much more than fundamentals. Let’s navigate.
Recall that the weakness in the U.S. dollar has facilitated a large number of hedge funds, market speculators, and to a less extent investors to borrow dollars and buy a variety of risk based assets. What assets? Equities, a wide array of bonds, a basket of commodities, primarily gold. How are these sectors performing?
After an initial spike of 1-1.5% across the equity markets, these major market averages have retraced and are now effectively unchanged to slightly better on the day. Is that a sign of investors not believing in the details of the employment report? No, anything but. In fact, I believe the equity performance today is quite strong given the fact that the dollar has increased by 1.6%.
Bonds have traded in a very narrow range. Interest rates moved higher by approximately 12 basis points (.12%) and have sat there almost all day. The question that now comes back front and center is when the Fed will decide to raise rates. While most analysts had written off the possibility of an increase in rates prior to 2011, now analysts are projecting that the Fed may raise rates by mid-2010.
If rates do rise here, what does that do for our greenback? It will do better and it is doing just that today. As I referenced the U.S. Dollar Index has increased by 1.6%. (more…)
Time to Reinstitute Glass-Steagall
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 3rd, 2009 3:16 PM |
A car needs gas to run. An engine needs steam. A factory needs power. The fact is without a steady source of energy nothing can operate. Welcome to the Uncle Sam economy circa 2009.
You may be thinking, wait a second LD . . . the Federal Reserve is flushing the system with liquidity. Money is easy and it is propping the markets. While availability of credit may be tight, the demand for credit is also weak. So what am I talking about?
Thanks to RM for providing the FDIC Third Quarter 2009 Banking Profile (a link to the full document is provided at the end of this commentary). For those who care to rip apart the inner workings of our banking system, this report is the owner’s manual. The report highlights the following:
> Industry Posts Net Profit of $2.8 Billion
> Increased Revenues, Lower Securities Losses Offset Higher Loan-Loss Provisions
> Net Interest Margins Improve at Most Institutions
> Troubled Loans Continue to Rise, But Rate of Growth Slows
> Loan balances Decline by 2.8% in the Quarter
Based on this overview, it would appear that the banking industry is slowly recovering. In aggregate, perhaps that may be the case. But what doesn’t this report tell us? (more…)
How Will The Fed Exit ‘Hell’?
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 4th, 2009 3:06 PM |
None other than Meredith Whitney, the top rated bank analyst on Wall Street, characterized the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program to purchase mortgage-backed securities (MBS) as a ‘deal with the devil.’ Can the Federal Reserve sneak out of hell without disturbing the other residents? Can the Federal Reserve regain its stature of credibility and independence in the face of such massive government intervention and Wall Street influence? The challenge embedded in communicating how the Fed will ‘exit hell’ will be the single greatest determinant of economic and market direction over the next six months.
Did we catch a peek into those depths of hell today given the release of the most recent Federal Reserve policy statement?
What did we learn? (more…)
U.S. Markets Play “Follow the Leader”
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 7th, 2009 9:40 AM |
Yesterday’s rise in rates by the Australian central bank is a bellweather sign of the global shift in the balance of economic power. While the rise in rates by the Aussies is the first central bank move, it certainly will not be the last. Why did the Aussies raise rates and what does it mean both in the short term and for the long haul? Let’s navigate.
The Australian economy did not have near the level of debt that burdens the U.S. and Europe and thus they did not need near the amount of monetary stimulus to weather this global recession. Additionally, Australia has benefited from extensive trade in the Asian hemisphere.
The knee jerk reaction in the markets was focused primarily on a selloff in the greenback which supported a move higher in commodities and global equities via the ‘positive carry trade.’ The commodity which garnered the greatest focus was gold, which moved toward $1040/ounce.
What do these moves mean? I see cross currents on the economic landscape, including:
1. The dollar may not necessarily continue to weaken, but given its current weakness it will support those companies which garner a greater degree of sales overseas.
2. A weak dollar is usually affiliated with inflation. I do not think we are in a position to look at prices in terms of one overall index. Why? Given the technical and fundamental factors in our economy, certain price components will likely project increased inflation while others will not.
To be more specific, given the labor situation in our country, I do not see any appreciable increase in wages anytime soon. In fact, I think it is likely wages will trend lower.
Given the glut of supply and vacancies in both the residential and commercial real estate markets, I have a tough time believing these prices will move appreciably higher anytime soon.
Commodities may very well move higher. Why? High five to MC for sharing with me that there is increased dialogue in the international trade community to move oil away from trading in dollars. In fact, that story likely had a big impact in yesterday’s trading. Even if there is not an immediate shift in this market dynamic, the mere fact that it is being discussed will support oil specifically, oil-based products broadly, and other commodities as well.
Given that these commodities are primarily inputs, the prices for the outputs will likely move higher. This development is clearly inflationary.
3. What happens to interest rates here in the United States? While on one hand we have some deflationary forces at work which would keep rates low, we have the tug of other factors pushing them higher. How does it play out? My gut instinct tells me that overall pools of capital will be flowing away from the United States and, as such, people and private corporations will have to pay more to attract capital here in our country. I think those entities which focus the bulk of their economic activity here in the United States will be forced to pay higher rates to attract funding.
4. What about our equity markets and the Fed? While the Fed will want to keep our rates low for an ‘extended period,’ they may not have that luxury. If other nations follow Australia in raising rates, the U.S. may need to withdraw some liquidity sooner rather than later. Kansas City Fed chair Thomas Hoenig made this very assertion yesterday.
What would higher rates mean or even the thought of higher rates mean? Slower growth and a tough road for equities going forward.
Thoughts, comments, questions always appreciated.
LD
Related Sense on Cents Commentary
Dollar Carry Trade Drives Global Equities (September 16, 2009)
Let’s Give Barack Some Sense on Cents
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 16th, 2009 9:16 AM |
In true Washington fashion, Obama’s proposed regulatory reforms have been “leaked” to the market. Let’s review, analyze, and critique. The Wall Street Journal provides a very helpful overview of these reforms via Blueprint to Avoid Market Meltdowns:
President Barack Obama spent the first five months of his presidency trying to make sure the worst financial shock in 70 years didn’t push the U.S. economy into a depression. He will spend the next five months or so trying to redo the rules of finance so we don’t go through this again.
Enough of the Obama plan has leaked to see how Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and chief White House economist Lawrence Summers propose to protect the economy from the vulnerabilities now so painfully evident: Plug the gaps; don’t redo the organization chart. Rely heavily on the sagacity of the Federal Reserve; the alternatives are inferior. Craft a plan that has a chance of getting through Congress.
Will there be real “change” involved in Obama’s plans or a mere reshuffling of the deck chairs along with a healthy dose of Monday morning quarterbacking? Will the Wall Street-Washington cabal be exposed or solidified? Let’s navigate the landscape of Obama’s proposed reforms using the WSJ’s blueprint:
Problem: Several financial firms were so big and intertwined that their failure threatened the entire system, and they weren’t all banks.
Solution: Pump up the Fed’s role in overseeing all big “financial holding companies,” giving it explicit authority to match its responsibility. Tell it to protect the system, not only the sturdiness of the banking units of these firms. Brace for controversy: Some in Congress already think the Fed is too powerful.
So propose a “council” of regulators to share some duties, but make the Fed the heavy. (Retain the Fed’s ability to lend to anyone in a crisis, as it did to Bear Stearns and American International Group, but require it to get the formal OK of the Treasury secretary.)
Sense on ¢ents: the Fed is already charged with these responsibilities within the banking industry. I highlighted these points the other day in my post “The All Powerful Federal Reserve”:
What are the Federal Reserve’s responsibilities?
-supervising and regulating banking institutions to ensure the safety and soundness of the nation’s banking and financial system and to protect the credit rights of consumers
-maintaining the stability of the financial system and containing systemic risk that may arise in financial markets
The Fed failed to perform. Why give it more power? Obama is specifically addressing the risks within the insurance industry in designating the Fed as the authority in overseeing the entire economic system.
I believe our risks are increasing dramatically via this move. Why? Not enough checks and balances. Not enough eyes and ears and “teeth” to monitor and promote accountability. Merely because the Fed is “all powerful” does not mean that it is “all knowing,” “all capable,” and “all encompassing.” (more…)
