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Posts Tagged ‘Don’t fight the Fed’

Fed-speak: Ease Air Out of Bonds – Support Equities

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 20th, 2013 9:38 AM |

“Don’t fight the Fed.”

While the fundamentals of our underlying economy bump along with continued structural headwinds and fiscal support from Uncle Sam remaining anemic, the Federal Reserve’s QE-infinity remains the underlying cornerstone supporting our markets.

With equities making new highs and high yield bonds trading at stratospheric levels, recent pronouncements from Fed officials strike me as looking to accomplish two goals: (more…)

Bloomberg Poll: Americans Decidedly Negative on Business and Economy

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 23rd, 2010 9:31 PM |

A Bloomberg National Poll of 1002 people over the last three days is quite revealing. (The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%)

Almost across the board, those polled (who were randomly selected) are more negative than positive or even neutral on a variety of key topics. Rather than my adding editorial comments, let’s look at the data:

The Value of Your Investments
A lot better 6%
A little better 25%
Same 22%
A little worse 29%
A lot worse 17%
Not Sure 1%

The Overall U.S. Economy (more…)

July 2009 Market Review

Posted by Larry Doyle on August 1st, 2009 12:20 PM |

In the process of reviewing price action across the entire spectrum of global equity, bond, and commodity markets, I am struck by one simple fact: virtually every market segment went up in value in July. That sort of price action in a challenged economy is uncommon, if not irrational.

Is this price action a sign of an incipient turn in the economy? Will we continue to rally? Are we going to have a V-shaped recovery? Come on back in, the water’s fine? What recession? Hardly.

I continually see the battle royale between the bulls and the bears in the markets. I truly believe we are entering into a new global economic norm and, as such, before we are able to thrive we need to survive. Thus, in  my opinion, while others may consider themselves bulls or bears in terms of the markets and economy, I would classify myself as an animal which wants to aggressively survey the landscape, strengthen my reserve, increase my store of value (savings), and judiciously put some small stakes (investments) to work knowing that there remain real risks on the horizon. For lack of a better term, call me a friendly fox.

Without further delay, let’s assess the July 2009 Market Review:

I have added a few indices to take a more comprehensive view of the markets. These indices include: DJ-Global ex U.S., an emerging market index (MSCI), a commodity index, and a U.S. dollar index. I hope readers find these helpful.

Let’s grade my calls from last month, at which point I wrote: (more…)

Don’t Fight the Fed

Posted by Larry Doyle on July 30th, 2009 12:37 PM |

“Cover all your Treasury shorts!!”

I will never forget that mandate put forth by Tom Kirch, then head of Fixed Income at First Boston, as the stock market was crashing in October 1987. As a young trader, moments like that are not soon forgotten. Why? Mr. Kirch through dint of experience knew that you “don’t fight the Fed.”

With the crash of the stock market, the Fed cut interest rates and flooded the system with liquidity. In the process, the U.S. Treasury market had a massive rally. Kirch knew what was going to happen and saved the firm millions in the process. You can rest assured I immediately broke out some ‘Buy’ tickets and covered my Treasury shorts in a heartbeat.

“Don’t fight the Fed” is a tried and true rule of trading on Wall Street. While the bond market can often get overbought or oversold in the midst of a Fed easing or tightening scenario, ultimately if the Fed wants to move rates in one direction or another, it will make it happen.

Fast forward to the Brave New World of the Uncle Sam Economy 2009. How are market participants supposed to view the Fed currently? Dare I say, as challenging as it may be for market participants, myself included, “don’t fight the Fed” is still very much applicable. How so?
(more…)






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