Posted by Larry Doyle on January 30th, 2014 7:02 AM |
The consensus opinion by most market strategists coming into the year was that our equity markets would follow up the 25-30% gains of 2013 with another 8-10% gain this year.
The markets will have to experience a hellacious rally in the next two trading days or make an exception to an age old rule that January’s price action sets the direction for the year as a whole.
So what is going on with the markets? Are they simply experiencing a long overdue pullback? No doubt about that. Aside from a mild pullback last August and September of approximately 3-4%, the S&P 500 Index went straight up for the next 3 months to the tune of 12% to end the year with a 30% gain.
The 4% loss year to date certainly qualifies as a pullback but comes nowhere close to qualifying as a correction which market technicians define as a 10% decline. The S&P 500 would have to retrace another 110 points on top of the ~75 points it has lost year to date to meet that definition. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 26th, 2013 8:57 AM |
As we navigate even further into uncharted waters, many who visit this site are likely wondering what lurks on the horizon for our markets and economy in 2014.
The markets may be typically quiet today and tomorrow with sloppy weather in many parts of our nation and preparation underway for our traditional feast of Thanksgiving.
Let’s take a little extra time to feast on some widely divergent economic and market viewpoints on display in a recent Research Magazine roundtable discussion with respected industry insiders Rob Arnott, John Buckingham, Ken Fisher, and one of my favorites Bob Rodriguez.
What’s the current state of the economy? (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 5th, 2013 9:37 AM |
A perennial Sense on Cents All Star and Hall of Fame inductee, Doubleline’s CEO Jeff Gundlach, presented an investment webcast yesterday.
I welcome sharing the slides utilized by the premiere investment manager in the business as he spanned the globe in his presentation dubbed, “What in the World Is Going On?“
Anybody with even a passing interest in understanding what is happening in our global economy will want to take anywhere from 5 minutes to many hours to absorb what can only be described as a treasure trove of invaluable and informative analysis.
Gundlach’s presentation provides an overview of the following and much more:
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 6th, 2013 7:20 AM |
I recently received a message from friends in the market apprising me of the newest “trick” being used by those who like to move/manipulate markets. What are the wizards up to?
Let’s get the inside scoop on what is really going on within our equity markets from our Sense on Cents Hall of Famers Joe Saluzzi and Sal Arnuk at Themis Trading. They recently sent out the following:
From Themis Trading: A new phenomenon is sweeping the equity market. It’s called the Fake Tweet Mini Flash Crash. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 29th, 2013 2:05 PM |
Have you ever wondered what a best guesstimate might be as to how much the 2008 crisis cost our economy? Well, not that many outlets around here may care to highlight this information, so let’s navigate to a Russian site, Rianovosti, at which we can read and learn,
The absence of criminal accountability for a crisis that cost the U.S. economy trillions of dollars in GDP and wiped out billions more in personal wealth amplifies the risk of a similar financial meltdown in the future, according to securities experts and former regulators.
Trillions?? That is a large number even by today’s standards where many in Washington throw the “t-word” around like it is no big deal. Can we get more specific? (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 12th, 2012 11:58 AM |
There is a reason that Jeff Gundlach and team at Doubleline have gone from zero to $50 BILLION in assets under management in a shorter time frame than some people can go to the bathroom and get back to their desk. What is that reason?
In my humble opinion, Gundlach and his colleagues have an uncanny ability to be three steps ahead of the competition while scanning the global economic and market landscape from a 360 degree angle. What makes them even more unique? (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 15th, 2010 6:12 AM |
The European Union, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (and the Fed, as well, although they don’t want to truly highlight it) provide $960 billion in backstops for the Euro-zone and what happens? The Euro ends the week lower by 3%!! Ladies and gentlemen, that is nothing more than a major “F&%@ Y#&“ on behalf of global investors to the aforementioned central banks and government entities.
Think there is tension in Euroland, and specifically between France and Germany? As The UK-based Telegraph reports, President Nicolas Sarkozy ‘Threatened to Pull France Out of Euro’:
President Nicolas Sarkozy slammed his fist on the table and threatened to pull France out of the euro at a meeting of European leaders deciding Greece’s aid package last Friday, according to Spain’s El Pais newspaper.
The last time there was this kind of tension between these countries, guess who was coming ashore at Normandy? (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 13th, 2010 5:32 PM |
Is the market rigged?
Actually, the question of whether our markets are rigged or not is becoming less and less a question and more widely accepted as fact. This reality is evidenced by the totally incredulous evidence that four major banks on Wall Street had perfect (not one negative trading day) first quarters.
Some may think this is good for our economy. I am not one of them. Why? (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 11th, 2010 7:55 AM |
Like leading sheep to the wolves, the manner in which high frequency trading activity has grown to dominate our equity markets is nothing more than a trap. How has that trap worked? Stay on message and continue to promote the premise that high frequency trading adds liquidity to the market. Time and time again, America would hear from quantitative traders and their analysts engaged in high frequency trading that these programs would provide consistent liquidity from which retail investors would benefit.
What a crock!! That said, the HFT activity itself is not to blame for the market plunge. The programs behaved as they were designed. That is, during periods of extreme volatility, those running the programs would simply shut down the machine. Is that liquidity? No, I don’t think so.
Never again should America have to listen to anybody engaged in high frequency trading and hear them say these systems provide liquidity to the market. They don’t. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 8th, 2010 9:33 AM |
The bill comes due.
This week’s bill is in Greece. The bills right behind it are in other EU nations. The larger bills are in the UK and the US. How will they be paid?
A combination of fiscal austerity measures, debt restructuring, monetization through currency devaluations, and potentially defaults. The civil unrest playing out in Greece is likely a precursor to similar unrest in other nations. Unless and until real fiscal discipline is implemented and executed, this civil unrest will spread.
Fiscal discipline may stunt short term government stimulated economic growth, but that is the only remedy for a path to long term economic prosperity. Washington has shown no appetite nor inclination to write this prescription. Our future is and will continue to be very challenging until they write the prescription. As I wrote the other day, “Athens Today, London Tomorrow? Washington Next Week?”
Welcome to the Sense on Cents Week in Review where I provide a streamlined recap of month-to-date market returns. (more…)