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HomeWhy I Do Not Trust Washington
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 25th, 2010 11:47 AM |
People can debate the relative strength of the economy all they want. I firmly believe that from a macro-level, our economy has years to go before it has a real chance to recover. Why years?
1. The banking system overall remains loaded with an excessive amount of delinquent loans. Uncle Sam will continue to siphon money from the American public and deliver it to the banks. In the process, these “earnings” will be utilized to write down the values of loans and securities it holds at inflated levels.
2. Credit will not truly flow until the health of banks, especially the smaller and community based banks, is substantially stronger. (more…)
Keep Pressuring the Wall Street-Washington Incest
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 20th, 2010 9:17 AM |
Incestuous relationships can last a long time. When two willing consorts are engaged in incest without it being exposed, the incest can grow and ultimately become cancerous. Incestuous partners may believe they are pleasing each other at little expense to other family members. What a lie. Make no mistake, there is always a third party involved in incest. Who is that? Collectively, the family. In the case of our financial crisis circa 2010, the incestuous relationship between Wall Street and Washington has badly damaged the American family. Let us not allow either of these incestuous partners to define our current turmoil by asking family members to pick sides.
Why am I writing this? (more…)
The Reflation Bill Is Outstanding and Growing
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 5th, 2010 11:13 AM |
If we are to believe the markets are predicting a rebound in the economy (I do not blindly accept that to be the case), then it is high time we address the next enormous question facing our country. That is? The bill that has been accruing for the ’so-called’ saving of our economy.
Whether the economy has been saved or not is a relative question. Please be careful as to how to use that phrase in light of the fact that there are 6.5 million people out of work now for at least 27 weeks (long term unemployed) and close to 17% of our labor force is underemployed.
The biggest question facing our country now is how do we pay for cleaning up this mess that was created over the last number of years? (more…)
White House Sees Elevated Unemployment for ‘Extended Period’
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 16th, 2010 11:43 AM |
Is the White House reading Sense on Cents?
While I ask that question in a self-effacing fashion, I will allow others to pass muster as to whether my commentary deserves attention in Washington. Why do I ask that question now though? I wrote this morning, “What Happened to Focus on Jobs?”:
The ‘talking points’ utilized by those in Washington project that our economy and markets are experiencing cyclical unemployment. I firmly believe they are wrong. Our economy and markets are experiencing structural unemployment.
Now it appears as if the White House ‘talking points’ have changed. (more…)
Larry Kudlow on Janet Yellen
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 13th, 2010 7:13 AM |
President Obama will likely nominate Janet Yellen of the San Francico Fed to replace Donald Kohn as number two in the hieracrchy at the Federal Reserve behind Fed Chair Ben Bernanke.
What can we learn about Ms. Yellen? Let’s read Larry Kudlow, a highly regarded economist and market practitioner with extensive experience on Wall Street, in Washington, and on the airwaves. Kudlow and Yellen look at the economy from a decidedly different perspective. Kudlow recently wrote of Ms. Yellen’s nomination and what it says about the Obama administration in his Kudlow’s Commentary:
The new Obama Fed is going to be very dovish when it comes to fighting future inflation and defending the value of the dollar. (more…)
Will Obama Whack Geithner and Anoint Volcker?
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 21st, 2010 8:54 AM |
One year into his presidency, Barack Obama is losing support from many corners. The American public is clearly sending Obama specifically and Washington at large a strong message of disapproval. Obama’s liberal base of support within the Democratic Party is growing increasingly disenchanted. Individual supporters such as The New York Times’ Paul Krugman are backing away from Obama.
Obama and team have nobody to blame but themselves. They were elected to bring real change to Washington. The American public defined that change as embracing real truth, transparency, and integrity. To this point, Obama has fallen woefully short on all these fronts and proven himself to be ‘just another politician.’
Obama has tried to scale Mt. Everest when in fact the American public and economy were merely and are still trying to get back to sea level. As Obama looks to regroup and reconnect with the American public, what will he do? (more…)
What’s Fueling America’s Rage?
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 20th, 2009 10:56 AM |
What is fueling America’s populist rage?
Is it the unemployment situation? Is it the volatility in the markets? The weakening greenback? Perhaps the generally perceived level of incompetence amongst our political and corporate leaders? Is it a media that does not hold our public officials and corporate leaders accountable?
While I could write extensively – and I have – on each of these questions, I am firmly convinced the ever increasing levels of populist rage go much deeper than any of these questions. How deep? To the very core of this great nation. What is at the core of any individual, institution, or nation?
Honesty and integrity.
Americans are a strong people. America is a proud land. That said, I believe we have allowed a semblance of moral decay to increasingly infiltrate our very core and we are now paying the price for it. How is this growing moral decay exemplified?
I am not suggesting that those who might hold differing opinions than mine on specific questions addressing ethical and moral topics as being the root of our current problems. I would like to think I am not so narrow-minded or judgmental. I do believe, however, that the rage sweeping our country on both sides of the political aisle stems from the reality that Americans are increasingly convinced that our political representatives, government officials, financial leaders, and their selected constituents have not been honest with America. (more…)
Dollar Devaluation Is a Dangerous Game
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 8th, 2009 9:24 AM |
Can we ‘devalue’ our way back to our days of economic ‘wine and roses?’
Many debt-laden countries throughout economic history have chosen to implicitly or explicitly pursue a devaluation of their currency as a means of improving their economies. Are the ‘wizards in Washington’ taking this approach? Aside from a few perfunctory comments in defense of the greenback, Washington has been largely silent on the topic of the declining value of the dollar. Many believe Washington very much favors a weaker currency as a means of supporting our economy. I believe this of Washington, as well. Let’s navigate.
Going back to the G20 in London last Spring, the Obama administration has attempted to curry political favor with emerging economies, especially the BRIC nations, by ceding dollar sovereigncy as the preeminent international reserve currency in return for support of global economic stimulus programs. Why does Washington believe a weak currency serves our economic interests? A weak currency generates and supports the following:
1. Promotes inflation as imports decline. Washington would like some inflation, given the massive deflationary pressures presented by falling wages and declines in the value of commercial and residential real estate.
2. Promotes exports for corporations with a multi-national presence.
3. Supports labor by making it more attractive for companies to keep jobs here as opposed to opening factories or sending work overseas.
So, in light of our current economic crisis, why wouldn’t we want a substantially cheaper dollar to maximize these benefits?
Recall that economists always need to keep certain variables static in order to study the impact of a change in another variable or multiple variables. This approach, known as ‘ceteris paribus,’ is not quite as easy as some may think. Why? Variables are NEVER static, or ‘ceteris is NEVER paribus.’ (more…)
