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HomeWho’s The Boss?
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 28th, 2009 12:04 PM |
I almost vomited this morning upon reading the lead article in The Wall Street Journal. The principles and values I cherish and which I believe are the keys to our long term economic prosperity are under continual siege. The American dream is under siege, as well. Our nation’s economic future has never looked so cloudy and uncertain. Why? As The WSJ writes, After the Bailouts, Washington’s the Boss:
Only as the recession recedes will it become fully evident how permanently the state’s role has expanded and whether, as a consequence, a new, hybrid strain of American capitalism is emerging.
One thing is clear: The government is a much bigger force in today’s U.S. economy than it was before the financial crisis. “The frontier between the state and market has shifted,” says Daniel Yergin, whose 1998 book “Commanding Heights” chronicled the ascent of free-market forces starting in the 1980s. “The realm of the state has been enlarged.”
Why am I so concerned? For the following reasons: (more…)
A Question of Competence
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 23rd, 2009 12:27 PM |
Band-aids, quick fixes, partisan posturing, and the like will do little to address the structural and cultural deficiencies which played into our current economic crisis.
High five to SH for sharing a report (a link to the full report is provided at the end of this post) by Harvard Business School’s William A. Sahlman entitled “Management and the Financial Crisis (We have met the enemy and he is us…).” Sahlman does an outstanding job of pinpointing five critical components of firms and institutions that failed during this crisis. At the end of this post I have provided a link to Mr. Sahlman’s 35-page report, but allow me to provide some highlights. Sahlman writes:
I assert that most of the problems evidenced so prominently during this financial crisis can be traced to failures in five related managerial systems inside each major private and public actor in the financial markets:
Incentives – how risk and reward are shared; how people behave if they act in their own perceived best interests given the structure of pecuniary and non‐pecuniary payoffs
Control & Information Technology – how limits are placed on behavior; how information is captured and shared; how risk and reward are measured and how those assessments affect tactics and strategy
Accounting – how managers choose accounting policies; how managers measure economic profits & losses, as distinct from GAAP profits and losses
Human Capital – the process by which people with certain characteristics (skill, experience, networks, character, and attitude) are attracted and managed or encouraged to leave any organization
Culture – the values that guide individual and group decisions
While Sahlman thoroughly reviews these five factors and how they misfired in a number of failed institutions, he goes one step further in addressing why they misfired. I commend him for it. He writes: (more…)
Geithner and Congress Take the Gloves Off
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 19th, 2009 2:23 PM |
Do you get the sense that Americans are increasingly fed up with the incestuous nature of the Wall Street-Washington relationship? How so? The gloves came off from both sides of the aisle today in the midst of Congressional testimony from Treasury Secretary Geithner to the Joint Economic Committee.
Despite what you may think about the policy and programs of the Obama administration, the sentiments shared by selected Congressmen are clearly reflective of the mood in the nation today.
No jobs on Main Street combined with massive bonuses on Wall Street is a surefire recipe for an enraged electorate. Washington can spin it however they want and attempt to deflect blame to the prior administration, but real leaders and real leadership are defined by the saying embraced by Harry Truman, “The buck stops here.”
Leaders who accept credit but redirect blame aren’t leaders.
LD
Liu Mingkang Provides Sense on Cents
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 16th, 2009 8:21 AM |
Liu Mingkang, Chairman of China Banking Regulatory Commission
With friends like this, who needs enemies?
That trite saying is far too simplistic in defining the diverse and convoluted nature of U.S.-Chinese relations. That said, as President Obama prepares to arrive in the People’s Republic of China for the first time during his Presidency, he is faced with an extremely aggressive overture from Liu Mingkang, China’s chief banking regulator.
What does Mr. Mingkang have to say? Well, let’s just say he has a drastically different opinion on U.S. monetary and fiscal policy than his counterparts in Washington. While our wizards in Washington, Messrs. Bernanke, Geithner, and Summers would lead us to believe that the rebound in markets is a precursor to a rebound in our economy, Mr. Mingkang has a decidedly different take. The Financial Times sheds light on this topic in writing, China Says Fed Policy Threatens Recovery:
The US Federal Reserve is fueling “speculative investments” and endangering global recovery through loose monetary policy, a senior Chinese official warned just hours before President Barack Obama arrived in China for his first visit.
Liu Mingkang , China’s chief banking regulator, said the combination of a weak dollar and low interest rates had encouraged a “huge carry trade” that was having a “massive impact on global asset prices”. (more…)
Health Care Reform or Merely Another Redistribution Program
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 9th, 2009 8:49 AM |
Why is an ever increasing percentage of the American public getting angry?
In my opinion, more and more Americans are not only questioning but now realizing that they are largely disenfranchised. How so? Seemingly each and every program emanating from Washington is merely another form of income and wealth redistribution.
Make no mistake, the redistribution is running in both directions; that is, to the large monied interests on Wall Street and those who are increasingly dependent on Washington’s welfare and largesse. While funds are flowing in both directions, America’s great middle class feels more squeezed and screwed than at any point in their lifetime. We witness this reality again in Congress’ passage of its health-care reform legislation late on Saturday night.
While the health-care legislation will continue to be hotly debated, I view it as another government program imposing on the lives of those who have worked tirelessly to make this country great. Clearly, people are passionate on both sides of the health-care debate but ultimately this so called reform is merely another form of rationing and redistribution. Is that what America truly wants? I think not. Washington’s Democratic establishment will pass this bill at their political peril. They know it.
Arrogance comes in many forms, but ultimately I believe the height of arrogance is willful blindness. I see a lot of that in Washington these days.
LD
What Did We Learn Last Night in NY, NJ, and VA?
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 4th, 2009 8:30 AM |
Off year elections are always interesting in terms of getting a pulse on the American public. Yesterday’s elections, with the primary focus on the gubernatorial elections in VA and NJ, the mayoral race in NYC, and the Congressional race in upstate NY, strike me as having some similar themes. What were they?
1. A rising tide of discontent with incumbents.
I sense that not only in the NJ gubernatorial election but primarily in the mayoral race in NYC. Michael Bloomberg spent over $100 million, was estimated to hold close to a 20 point lead, and won by only 5 points.
I definitely sense this anti-incumbent discontent in Connecticut, as well. Both Senators Dodd and Lieberman are under real pressure.
2. An inability of the Obama administration to turn out the vote that brought him to Washington. (more…)
October 17, 2009: Month to Date Market Review
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 17th, 2009 5:46 AM |
The dynamics at work in the economy, markets, on Wall Street, in Washington, and around the world continue to be very much the same. Economic signals are decidedly mixed. The consumer and savers remain challenged. Markets remain firm. The greenback remains weak. Commodities remain firm.
While many of the Washington wizards and market mavens focus on the positives and many bloggers and naysayers focus on the negatives, I hope readers at Sense on Cents feel they can get a full and honest assessment on all these topics. Please do not hesitate to tell me when you think I’m not being objective.
I thank you for reading my work, and now let’s collectively ‘navigate the economic landscape,’ the mission of Sense on Cents.
ECONOMIC DATA
> Retail Sales: declined 1.5% but less than the expected decline of 2.1%. The media gave no credence to the fact that the prior month’s figures were revised lower by .5 %. Over the last two months, retail sales are marginally positive but the coming holiday sales will be very challenging with heavy discounting still expected.
> Consumer Price Index: rose .2 versus an expectation of .1. While prices are currently well behaved with the recent weakening of the dollar and sharp move higher in commodities, we should expect food and gas prices to move higher.
> Jobless Claims: overall claims declined marginally again, but nobody is willing to bet that the employment situation is improving rapidly. The claims data is a sign that perhaps unemployment is stabilizing, albeit at very elevated levels.
> Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Report: registered at 11.5 versus an expectation of 12.5 and a prior month 14.1 reading. Not a sign of a robust rebound in activity.
>Industrial Production: posted a surprisingly strong reading of a .7 increase against an expectation of a .2 increase.
> Consumer Confidence: against an expected reading of 74.0, this report registered a significant disappointment of 69.4. What happened? Consumers are very nervous about the overall economic outlook.
Add all of this economic data up and I focus on the last comment about consumer confidence. The consumer, which represents 70% of our economy, is nervous and the economy as a whole is as well.
Let’s move along to market performance. I would typically lead my review with focus on the equity and bond markets, but those sectors are actually following developments in the currency and commodity markets so let’s shift our focus accordingly.
The figures I provide are the weekly close and the month-to-date returns on a percentage basis:
U.S. DOLLAR
$/Yen: 90.87 versus 89.68, +1.3%
Euro/Dollar: 1.4894 versus 1.4635, +1.8%
U.S. Dollar Index: 75.58 versus 76.72, -1.5% !!!
Commentary: the overall U.S. Dollar Index continues to decline as the U.S. budget deficit for 2009 exploded to an astronomical $1.42 trillion. That figure is more than triple the 2008 level. The decline in the dollar continues to support the equity and commodity markets, while raising some concerns on the long end of the yield curve as a continuing decline in the dollar is inflationary which would push long maturity interest rates higher. The dollar actually did improve versus the Japanese yen while weakening versus the Euro. I recommend that readers focus on the dollar index which is why I link to it above. Track it and expect the index to move inversely to equities and commodities.
I reiterate my comments from last week. While I think Washington is not disappointed in a relatively weak dollar, although they should be (“Dollar Devaluation Is a Dangerous Game”), other countries are not overly keen about further dollar weakness. Why? A weak dollar puts those countries in a marginally less competitive position in international trade.
COMMODITIES
Oil: $78.67/barrel versus $70.39, +11.8% THE BIG MOVER THIS WEEK
Gold: $1055/oz. versus $1008.2, +4.6%
DJ-UBS Commodity Index: 134.32 versus 127.683, +5.2%
Commentary: Unless you grow your own crops or have your own source of energy, you should expect to get increasingly squeezed as prices at the supermarket and gas station are likely to head higher. While Washington will not address this development, these price moves are directly correlated with Washington’s weak dollar policy. The banks and others able to borrow cheap money for trading and investing benefit from the weak dollar. American consumers and savers get stuck with the bill.
The Baltic Dry Index did move higher this week following the upward moves in commodities, though, rather then leading the move.
I read these commodity tea leaves as a sign of inflationary expectations in these ‘inputs’ while we encounter deflationary pressures in wages and real estate.
EQUITIES
DJIA: 9996, +2.9%
Nasdaq: 212157, +1.6%
S&P 500: 1088, +2.9%
MSCI Emerging Mkt Index: 966, +5.8%
DJ Global ex U.S.: 200.56, +3.0%
Commentary: while the move by the Dow over 10, 000 did get a lot of attention and deservedly so, the number represents a psychological level more than any sort of meaningful fundamental development.
How about 3rd quarter earnings? More of the same. That is, generally speaking bottom line numbers are being generated to a greater extent by cost cutting than a real growth in sales and top line revenue. The weak dollar has supported those companies with a greater degree of international sales. Companies with pricing power should be able to benefit from the weaker dollar and improve their earnings. Those companies should outperform. Companies without pricing power will get squeezed and will continue to be forced to cut costs.
BONDS/INTEREST RATES
2yr Treasury: .96%, an increase of 1 basis point or .01%
10yr Treasury: 3.41%, an increase of 11 basis points
The yield curve steepened (longer maturities underperformed shorter maturities) a touch further again this week. I addressed my line of reasoning in the Currency Commentary. I continue to believe that we will have growing deflationary pressures (wages and real estate) offset by inflationary pressures (food, gas, health care). What’s an individual to do? Save, grow your own food, ride a bike, and don’t get sick!!
COY (High Yield ETF): 6.53, +2.0%
FMY (Mortgage ETF): 17.63, -1.0%
ITE (Government ETF): 57.80, -0.3%
NXR (Municipal ETF): 14.17, -1.9%
Commentary: while interest rates did move marginally higher over the week, overall they remain at remarkably low levels. The high-yield market remains very well bid while other sectors of the bond market have started to give ground as interest rates have started to ‘inch’ higher. Of note, the municipal bond market gave considerable ground as the reality of pressures in municipal finance increase.
Summary/Conclusion
I reiterate, the game continues. The disconnect between the overall domestic economy and the price action in the markets presents what one noted investor described as ‘the greatest experiment’ in modern finance. To the extent that people are putting money to work, I would focus on buying quality and utilizing ‘dollar cost averaging’ techniques.
Thanks for your support. If you like what you see here, please subscribe via e-mail, Twitter, Facebook, or an RSS feed.
Thoughts, comments, questions always appreciated.
Please join me this Sunday evening on BlogTalkRadio (8-9pm EDT) for what will assuredly be a fascinating dialogue with a high profile attorney, Richard Greenfield, who has three complaints ongoing versus the Wall Street regulatory organization, FINRA.
Have a great day and weekend.
LD
SEC Advisor Highlights Wall Street-Washington Incest
Posted by Larry Doyle on September 22nd, 2009 12:19 PM |
I have always held Bloomberg reporter Jonathan Weil in very high regard. I now regularly look for commentary by Bloomberg’s Susan Antilla, as well. Why? Ms. Antilla pursues truth and transparency in her writing and pulls no punches in the process.
This morning, Ms. Antilla calls for the SEC’s enforcement division to be rolled into the Department of Justice. She writes What the SEC Might Look Like If It Did Its Job:
Make no mistake, the ineffectiveness of the SEC is not merely reflected in its dismal performance on the Madoff fiasco. For a long time, the money from Wall Street has purchased cover in the halls of Washington. That cover is primarily in Congress with the resulting pressure applied on those within the SEC. Antilla engaged Barbara Roper for further details and highlights:
Ms. Roper’s use of the term “deference” is translated in financial layman’s terms as “incest.”
What does one do in any incestuous relationship? Keep the perpetrators as far away from the victims as possible. How would that be accomplished? Move the enforcement of financial rules and regulations outside of the purview of the SEC. Antilla nails it and writes:
Antilla further highlights the disparate treatment accorded the Wall Street power brokers relative to the ordinary American investor. Antilla writes:
Susan Antilla is to be commended for exposing the Wall Street-Washington incest at its core. I salute her. Where are the rest of her media colleagues? The interests of the American public will only be prioritized when our elected officials in Washington crawl out of the pockets of those on Wall Street.
LD
Related Sense on Cents Commentary:
Future Financial Regulation: Not a Question of Sufficiency but of Transparency and Integrity (May 18, 2009)
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Posted in General, SEC, Wall Street, Washington D.C. | 3 Comments »