Posts Tagged ‘quantitative easing’
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 29th, 2012 12:02 PM |
What does the Federal Reserve know that we don’t?
I mean, why would the Federal Reserve commit to keeping prevailing interest rates at next to zero through the end of 2014 if they were not aware of just how weak our underlying economy truly is?
Bernanke and team know our domestic economy and the global economy at large remain in need of significant and steady oxygen support. (more…)
Tags: Ben Bernanke, Bill Gross Pimco, Bill Gross twitter, Buzz Lightyear, Dan Alpert, Fed policy of zero interest rate policy, financial repression, how is our economy doing January 2012, inflation vs deflation, Pimm Fox Bloomberg Taking Stock, quantitative easing, reflating the economy, what is an investor to do January 2012
Posted in Federal Reserve, General, quantitative easing | No Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 4th, 2011 5:08 PM |
“Everybody out of the pool” and “Adult Swim Only” are phrases that ring in my ear from my trading days at Bear Stearns. A long lost friend (God bless you, buddy!!) would bellow those statements when markets plunged like today.
What has recently drained the liquidity and lowered the water level in our equity market ‘pool’?
A number of critically important factors have been building and continue to haunt us.These include:
1. Meltdown in European sovereign debt. This is not and should not be a surprise. The meltdown was merely a matter of time. The outstanding question remains the depth and breadth of the meltdown. Stay tuned as risks remain very high.
2. The dysfunction in Washington truly displayed how screwed up our political dynamic is while shedding light on the enormity of our national debt and deficit. This reality is not changing anytime soon. Stay tuned as risks remain very high.
(more…)
Tags: Adult Swim only, another round of quantitative easing, as good as it gets, BEA Revisions Revisited, budget talks in 2011, Bureau of Economic Analysis, consumer activity, consumer spending, Daily Growth Index, economy at stall speed, everybody out of the pool, explaining GDP, GDP forecast, GDP revisions, God Bless Mike Zulawski, higher rates in emerging economies, is the economy going back into recession, lower GDP projections, market meltdown august 4 2011, market vs economy, QE3, quantitative easing, Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute, Sense on Cents, stall speed for economy, stall speed on economy, U.S. debt and deficit, what caused the market meltdown august 4 2011, what drove the stock market lower august 4 2011, what is stall speed economy, why did the market dive august 4 2011, why did the market selloff august 4 2011, why did the stock market go lower august 4 2011, will we have a QE3
Posted in General | 3 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 20th, 2011 8:07 AM |
Over the last few years I have highlighted the fact that the deflationary impact of declining wages and home values gave cover to the Federal Reserve for maintaining an excessively easy monetary policy and pumping up asset prices via quantitative easing. That party would now seem to be over. Why?
There is no doubt that Fed chair Bernanke’s easy money has played an integral role in the inflation we are experiencing at the pump, in the supermarket, and across a number of other commodities.
As we continue to navigate the U.S. economic landscape circa 2011 and beyond, the ongoing decline in home values in many regions of our nation now would seem to be setting the table for an inflationary spike in housing costs. How so? What is going on here? (more…)
Tags: Ben Bernanke's party on Wall Street, benefits of purchasing vs renting, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Capital Economics forecast for US rental market he, Case-Shiller Index, Consumer price index, cost of purchasing vs renting, cost of renting, deflation vs inflation, easy monetary policy, easy money, Falling House Prices Mysteriously Fuel Inflation, fed's party, Federal Reserve monetary policy, foreclosures fueling inflation, future federal reserve policy, future monetary policy, hom eprices decline rents move higher, housing deflation vs housing inflation, how is housing inflation measured, how will Federal Reserve set monetary policy going forward, is housing in a Depression, is the fed's party over, measuring cost of housing, measuring CPI, measuring inflation, NAHB sentiment index, no more quantitative easing, owning vs renting, price of shelter, purchasing vs renting, quantitative easing, the end of easy money, underwater mortgages, what will Federal Reserve do, what will the Federal Reserve do with future policy, where are we getting inflation, where will people live, why might the Fed's party be over, will there be a QE3
Posted in Federal Reserve, General, Housing Crisis, quantitative easing | 10 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 26th, 2011 5:00 PM |
Tomorrow may be a truly special day in the history of our country’s financial hierarchy. The normally secretive institution known as the Federal Reserve led by current chair Ben Bernanke will host a live press conference shortly after the Fed Board of Governors exits from its regularly scheduled meeting addressing our nation’s economy and the Fed’s current monetary policy.
Will Bernanke surprise the markets and announce a continuation of the Fed’s asset bubbling, commodity inflating policy known formally as quantitative easing? Did somebody in the markets today know something about the Fed’s stance? Did anybody else find it particularly interesting that both stocks and bonds rallied big today?
While market participants anxiously await Bernanke’s words of wisdom, I actually think the better “Fed-show” may have been delivered today by Robert Auerbach. Who is Robert Auerbach? (more…)
Tags: a fight inside the Fed, bank lending, bank subsidy from Federal Reserve, commercial bank lending, Donal Kohn, Fed chair Arthur Burns, Fed chair Paul Volcker, Fed chair William Miller, Federal Reserve corruption and deception, Federal Reserve policy on records, Federal Reserve press conference April 27 2011, Federal Reserve record keeping, giving money into banking system, is Alan Greenspan a liar about Fed records, Jon Talton of Seattle Times, level of bank reserves, Mark Crumpton, Michael McKee of Bloomberg, paying funds on bank reserves, quantitative easing, Robert Auerbach and Fed chairs, Robert Auerbach Federal Reserve, Robert Auerbach interview on Bloomberg April 26 2011 j, what will happen at the Fed's press conference eds, who is Robert Auerbach, why aren't banks lending
Posted in Federal Reserve, General | 4 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 28th, 2011 7:56 AM |
Is there really any doubt that virtually all our markets, especially commodities and with the exception of real estate, have been propped higher as a direct or indirect result of the Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative easing? I have no doubt.
The question remains outstanding just how far the Fed, in concert with its banking friends on Wall Street, has gone and will go to further manipulate our markets. That question may never be fully answered. What a shame! For those who believe a preponderance of truth, transparency, and integrity are the cornerstones for long term fiscal health and financial well being our markets remain a decidedly challenging arena.
In light of this reality and with the end of QE2 on the horizon this June, where do we go from here? A reader posed that very question the other day. (more…)
Tags: backdoor bailout of Europe, Ben Bernanke, bond markets, commodity markets, Equity Markets, equity markets supported by quantitative easing, European economy, Fed policy, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve policy, market manipulation, peripheral nations in Europe, QE3, quantitative easing, truth transparency and integrity, Wall Street
Posted in General | 7 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 8th, 2010 7:41 AM |
Quantitative easing is merely another tool to adjust monetary policy, correct? Perhaps. The question begs, then, after an initial round of a trillion-plus quantitative easing failed to stimulate the economy why should we expect any differently this time. Great question. Let’s navigate.
Quantitative easing involves the purchase of Treasury and mortgage securities by the Federal Reserve in an attempt to inject liquidity into the system, prop asset prices, and spur consumer demand. Or so they say. Well how is the overall level of credit in our economy trending?
The downward slope in the graph is an indication of both lessened credit availability and also lessened credit demand. The quantitative easing should directly address this reality, correct? I am not so sure about the “directly” aspect of that statement. In fact, I will go a step further and say I think the Fed is being less than forthright with the nation. If the Fed truly wanted to inject liquidity and capital into our economy and allow it to flow through to small businesses directly there are much better ways of doing it than by purchasing overvalued Treasury and mortgage securities. (more…)
Tags: Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Bernanke Attempts to Soothe Doubters, Commercial Bank Credit, conference organized by Federal Reserve bank of Atlanta and Rutgers University, creating inflation, credit availability, credit demand, credit trends in economy, E. Gerald Corrigan, Fed summit in Georgia, Federal Reserve Bank Credit, Federal Reserve monetary policy, QE2, quantitative easing, swapping Treasurys for other assets, transparency within the Federal Reserve, what assets does the Federal Reserve purchase via quantitative easing, what is the federal reserve really buying
Posted in General, quantitative easing | 5 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 5th, 2010 9:49 AM |
Life is ultimately a matter of perspective.
Two people can look at a situation and see decidedly different things. Having been traveling for the better part of this week, I got home late last night to check on how markets closed yesterday. When I saw that equity markets rallied 2 per cent, commodities rose a like amount, and bonds also increased in value, I was not surprised but I was not thinking that I had reason to be cheerful either. I merely raised my eyebrows and went to bed knowing full well that to many people in our nation, these market movements would have little to no impact on their daily lives and immediate futures.
Am I being excessively pessimistic in my assessment? (more…)
Tags: Bernanke, bond market reaction to quantitative easing, central bankers comments about quantitative easing, economic impact of quantitative easing, effect of quantitative easing, emerging markets impact from quantitative easing, equity market reaction to quantitative easing, Geithner, impact of quantitative easing, markets reaction to quantitative easing, Martin Feldstein on quantitative easing, Obama, QE2, quantitative easing, real cost of quantitative easing
Posted in General | 7 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 29th, 2010 5:56 AM |
Here we are a full three years into our economic malaise, Uncle Sam has thrown everything and the kitchen sink at the economy yet we have little to no traction in terms of growth and momentum. Will another trillion dollars of liquidity do the trick? Well, while the Fed’s liquidity may move markets, will it move the economy? Don’t bet on it. The Fed and its brethren on Wall Street and in Washington are reluctant to truly level with the American people. How so?
Our nation is experiencing a serious structural change in our economy — not a mere ‘enormous downturn’ in the midst of the business cycle. If our central bankers and government officials were to emphasize this point, it may cause a sharper retrenchment in our current growth but it would likely lead to a quicker rebound. Before we get into why our bankers and their political cronies are reluctant to make this acknowledgement, let’s take the pulse of an array of venture capitalists, money managers, and others who provide the capital to a wide array of companies. What do these individuals think the economic impact of another round of quantitative easing might be? (more…)
Tags: Blackstone Group, Buttonwood Gathering, central bankers, Cliff Asness, Cliff Asness of AQR CApital MAnagement, Colm O' Shea, Comac Capital LLP, Economic Stimulus, Fed liquidity, Fed policy of QE2, Fed's credibility, Federal Reserve policy, how to stimulate the economy, Pimco Bill Gross, Pimco Likens US to Ponzi Scheme, QE2, quantitative easing, quantitative easing 2, quantitative easing policy, redistribution, Schwarzman Says Fed Easing Wont Make Much Difference, stimulating the economy, structural change vs business cycle, The Economist, Tony James, UK based The Telegraph, Wall Street Washington relationship, Wall Street-Washington incest
Posted in General | 7 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 7th, 2010 1:00 PM |
Party on.
In watching a midday Bloomberg interview, the host Tom Keene asked his guests just how big the punch bowl will be that Fed chair Ben Bernanke puts in front of investors at the next Fed meeting. The punch bowl being the size of the highly anticipated second round of Federal Reserve quantitative easing that is driving interest rates lower and asset prices higher.
While this punch bowl may be smaller than the initial party launched in 2009, the fact is expectations are that this punch bowl will run anywhere from $500 billion to $1 trillion in size. That is a lot of liquidity to keep the Wall Street party going. However, that figure is also a very strong indication as to the enormity of the underlying problems embedded in our economic foundation. (more…)
Tags: more quantitative easing, QE 2, quantitative easing
Posted in General | 4 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 6th, 2010 9:03 AM |
When central banks hint at implementing further quantitative easing and risk-based assets (commodities and equities) rally and interest rates fall (meaning, bonds rally as well), this is all good, right? If that is the case, is it even better when the hints become an outright statement of plans for more quantitative easing as was the case yesterday with The Bank of Japan? (WSJ: Central Banks Open Spigot; October, 4, 2010)
Clearly, the global central banks are launching these new volleys of quantitative easing in an attempt to forestall deflationary pressures at work underlying our global economy. That said, while asset markets are rising, we need to be aware there are very real costs to this ongoing financial experiment. What are the costs? (more…)
Tags: Bank of Japan quantitative easing, Central Banks Open Spigot, companies with fixed pension liabilities, deflationary pressures, disinflation, Greater Fool Theory, hidden costs of quantitative easing, Paras Anand, pension liabilities, plans for quantitative easing, prices of precious metals, purchasing power of fiat currencies, quantitative easing, risk based assets, what is quantitative easing, who is Paras Anand
Posted in General, quantitative easing | 5 Comments »
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The Real Cost of Quantitative Easing
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 5th, 2010 9:49 AM |
Life is ultimately a matter of perspective.
Two people can look at a situation and see decidedly different things. Having been traveling for the better part of this week, I got home late last night to check on how markets closed yesterday. When I saw that equity markets rallied 2 per cent, commodities rose a like amount, and bonds also increased in value, I was not surprised but I was not thinking that I had reason to be cheerful either. I merely raised my eyebrows and went to bed knowing full well that to many people in our nation, these market movements would have little to no impact on their daily lives and immediate futures.
Am I being excessively pessimistic in my assessment? (more…)
Tags: Bernanke, bond market reaction to quantitative easing, central bankers comments about quantitative easing, economic impact of quantitative easing, effect of quantitative easing, emerging markets impact from quantitative easing, equity market reaction to quantitative easing, Geithner, impact of quantitative easing, markets reaction to quantitative easing, Martin Feldstein on quantitative easing, Obama, QE2, quantitative easing, real cost of quantitative easing
Posted in General | 7 Comments »