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Posts Tagged ‘GDP revisions’

GDP Review: How’s Our Economy ‘Really’ Doing?

Posted by Larry Doyle on July 30th, 2014 9:45 AM |

Most pundits and analysts will understandably try to hype the better than expected 4% growth rate of 2nd quarter GDP reported this morning.

I get it.

Some might temper the hype by highlighting that growth in inventories accounted for approximately 1.7% of the growth. Others might choose to direct attention to the fact that the disappointing 1st quarter GDP was actually revised to a -2.1% level from the -2.9% posting previously reported. Still others will point toward the positive developments within the consumer spending data.

Yes, most of this information has a positive bent to it but is this to say that we have a meaningfully positive trending economy that will drive growth in full-time, high paying jobs?  (more…)

What Caused the Market Meltdown?

Posted by Larry Doyle on August 4th, 2011 5:08 PM |

Everybody out of the pool” and “Adult Swim Only” are phrases that ring in my ear from my trading days at Bear Stearns. A long lost friend (God bless you, buddy!!) would bellow those statements when markets plunged like today.

What has recently drained the liquidity and lowered the water level in our equity market ‘pool’?

A number of critically important factors have been building and continue to haunt us.These include:

1. Meltdown in European sovereign debt. This is not and should not be a surprise. The meltdown was merely a matter of time. The outstanding question remains the depth and breadth of the meltdown. Stay tuned as risks remain very high.

2. The dysfunction in Washington truly displayed how screwed up our political dynamic is while shedding light on the enormity of our national debt and deficit. This reality is not changing anytime soon. Stay tuned as risks remain very high.

(more…)

Debt Deal, Our ‘Walking Pneumonia’ Economy, QE3 and More ‘Sense on Cents’

Posted by Larry Doyle on August 1st, 2011 7:40 AM |

What now? What lies ahead on the challenging and winding road filled with clouds and great unknowns that defines our American economic landscape?

The political circus in Washington has clearly taken center stage over the last few weeks. Watching this show has been anything but entertaining and don’t think the theatrics do not harm our economy. They do.

Uncertainty breeds risk aversion and our economy needs people and businesses willing to take risks.

Can we assume that the passage of a bipartisan debt package means we can get back to business as usual and that the economy will rebound? Not so fast. (more…)

Rick Davis Goes Inside the GDP Report

Posted by Larry Doyle on July 30th, 2010 11:18 AM |

The equity markets are flat so the 2nd quarter GDP report must have been properly priced into current valuations. Perhaps, but I would neither go that far nor would I be so brazen as to say that the markets are wrong in how they trade. Markets are never wrong. The market is the market. All this said, let’s navigate with Rick Davis inside the 2nd quarter report and the prior revisions.

July 30, 2010 – Inside the New GDP Numbers:

On July 30th the Bureau of Economic Analysis (‘BEA’) released its “advance” estimate of the annualized growth rate of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (‘GDP’) during the 2nd quarter of 2010. Per their report, the GDP grew during the quarter at an annualized rate of 2.4%, down from 3.7% in the 1st quarter of 2010. Several points from the report merit comment: (more…)

GDP Revisions Make 2nd Quarter Report Suspect

Posted by Larry Doyle on July 30th, 2010 9:14 AM |

2nd quarter 2010 GDP was just released and registered growth of +2.4% versus consensus expectations of +2.6%. Slightly weaker than expected, and we can all move on perhaps? Not so fast.

1st quarter GDP was revised from its supposed final reading of +2.7% to a newly revised 3.7%!! So the economy was that much stronger in the 1st quarter than previously thought that the 2.4% 2nd quarter reading is actually not all that bad. Again, not so fast. Let’s continue to peel the onion a little further.   (more…)






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