Posted by Larry Doyle on June 26th, 2014 8:37 AM |
Anyone with a modicum of ‘sense on cents’ is well aware of the maxim ‘garbage in, garbage out.’
If we are to believe that the inflation data reported by Uncle Sam does not properly capture the true level of price increases in our economy — did somebody say intentionally misleading — then the immediate question begs, what is the real level of economic activity in the nation?
Recall that real GDP is defined as:
A measure of economic growth from one period to another expressed as a percentage and adjusted for inflation (i.e. expressed in real as opposed to nominal terms). The real economic growth rate is a measure of the rate of change that a nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) experiences from one year to another.
If inflation is under reported, and the rate of change in our economic growth is a known figure, then by definition the output (that is, real GDP) will be overstated. So I repeat my question: What is the real level, that is a more honest and accurate assessment, of our 1st quarter GDP? (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 25th, 2014 9:38 AM |
Are you sick of being lied to?
Virtually every economist and political pundit came into 2014 touting this year as being the one in which our economy turns the corner. Well, in the first quarter of the year I guess we did turn the corner . . . and in doing so ran right off the proverbial cliff.
How could so many be so wrong by such a wide margin in assessing the health and projection of our economy? I will tell you: when the virtues of truth, transparency, and integrity are subjugated to such an extent at the behest of the financial, political, and regulatory ruling triumvirate, we fail to get a fair and honest reading as to what is really going on in our economy, let alone our nation. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 31st, 2013 10:53 AM |
The Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning released the 2nd quarter GDP report and it registered a surprisingly robust reading of 1.7%.
Not that a growth rate of 1.7% is anything to write home about but it was better than the forecasted growth rate of 1% or thereabouts.
The cynic in me tells me that I guess we are supposed to disregard the downward revision to the prior quarter’s growth from a reading of 1.8% to 1.1%. That fact only further confirms that our economy continues to largely walk in place with what I have long defined to be a case of “walking pneumonia.’ (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 26th, 2013 8:34 AM |
The 1st quarter 2013 GDP release indicating growth of 2.5% might not be as strong as expected but it is certainly a lot better than the anemic .4% increase registered in Q4/2012, right?
On the surface, yes, you would be correct. 2.5 is definitely a larger number than .4.
If we were to go by such simple measures, then we can paint a whole host of beautiful landscapes as we navigate our way deeper into the depths of economic hell. Let’s not be so easily hoodwinked, but sort through the noise in this report to reveal what I believe is the critical component of any GDP report. And what is that? (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 30th, 2013 9:44 AM |
The positive tone to the equity markets and other risk-based assets may provide a degree of cover to developments within the real economy but it cannot totally negate the fact that our nation’s economy continues to move along with all the speed of a pack mule.
In fact, Uncle Sam just reported that the old warhorse, that is our domestic economy, contracted in the 4th quarter of 2012 by 0.1%. Let’s navigate and take a harder look at what might be weighing us down. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 30th, 2010 11:18 AM |
The equity markets are flat so the 2nd quarter GDP report must have been properly priced into current valuations. Perhaps, but I would neither go that far nor would I be so brazen as to say that the markets are wrong in how they trade. Markets are never wrong. The market is the market. All this said, let’s navigate with Rick Davis inside the 2nd quarter report and the prior revisions.
July 30, 2010 – Inside the New GDP Numbers:
On July 30th the Bureau of Economic Analysis (‘BEA’) released its “advance” estimate of the annualized growth rate of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (‘GDP’) during the 2nd quarter of 2010. Per their report, the GDP grew during the quarter at an annualized rate of 2.4%, down from 3.7% in the 1st quarter of 2010. Several points from the report merit comment: (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 30th, 2010 9:14 AM |
2nd quarter 2010 GDP was just released and registered growth of +2.4% versus consensus expectations of +2.6%. Slightly weaker than expected, and we can all move on perhaps? Not so fast.
1st quarter GDP was revised from its supposed final reading of +2.7% to a newly revised 3.7%!! So the economy was that much stronger in the 1st quarter than previously thought that the 2.4% 2nd quarter reading is actually not all that bad. Again, not so fast. Let’s continue to peel the onion a little further. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 27th, 2010 6:10 AM |
2nd quarter earnings are certainly coming in stronger than expected, and our equity markets are having a solid rebound this month. Are these earnings reflective of real underlying strength in the economy or corporations that are now operating more efficiently?
Has our economy hit a soft patch? Is it declining? Are we rebounding from a recent downturn? Might we experience a real double dip?
The initial reading of 2nd quarter GDP is due this Friday. To say that it is highly anticipated would be a huge understatement. Consensus expectations for 2nd quarter GDP are running between +2.5% and +3%. Recall that the final 1st quarter report registered a +2.7% reading.
A Sense on Cents favorite has a decidedly different view of 2nd quarter economic activity and the subsequent GDP. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 1st, 2010 10:37 AM |
I love a good debate, or at the very least a healthy response to a challenging statement. I witnessed just such an exchange yesterday.
I shared my story, Rick Davis Nailed 1st Qtr 2010 GDP Report on November 30, 2009, with a noted Wall Street economist, with whom I am friendly and whom I hold in high regard. Recall that in the aformentioned story, I highlighted that Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute is projecting a double dip recession with a 2nd Qtr 2010 GDP reading of -1.5% and a 3rd Qtr GDP reading of -2.0%.
In sharing that commentary with this well known economist, I received the following response: (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 30th, 2010 9:41 AM |
How would you like to have the answers to a quarterly report before other participants have even thought that the activity is occurring, data is being compiled, analysis is being rendered, and the results are released? That would truly be awesome, wouldn’t it?
Can you imagine college students knowing the answers to their final exam before other students have even registered for the class? A doctor successfully making the diagnosis, while other doctors are waiting for the patient to arrive at the hospital? How about a weatherman pinpointing forecasts literally months in advance? Well, in my opinion, the work produced by Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute is the economic equivalent of these seemingly miraculous calls. (more…)