Posted by Larry Doyle on July 31st, 2013 10:53 AM |
The Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning released the 2nd quarter GDP report and it registered a surprisingly robust reading of 1.7%.
Not that a growth rate of 1.7% is anything to write home about but it was better than the forecasted growth rate of 1% or thereabouts.
The cynic in me tells me that I guess we are supposed to disregard the downward revision to the prior quarter’s growth from a reading of 1.8% to 1.1%. That fact only further confirms that our economy continues to largely walk in place with what I have long defined to be a case of “walking pneumonia.’ (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on September 7th, 2012 9:32 AM |
The September employment report was just released. Many analysts, economists, and political hacks will regurgitate the numbers 8.1 and 96k. These numbers represent respectively the current unemployment rate and the increase in non-farm payrolls.
While these numbers are of very real interest, they are not the most important number to gauge the health of our overall economy. What number is most important? 368k. What does that represent? (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 3rd, 2011 8:19 AM |
A wide array of supposedly smart people are now informing us that the economy is slowing and may slip back into recession. The new phrase being used to describe our economic condition is ‘stall speed’.
Well how about that? Stall speed, they say. Is the economy truly slowing? Is it really?
Or perhaps did the real economy, that is the one in which we live and operate—not the one fabricated by Wall Street pundits and Washington politicians—never truly rebound?
I ask because I firmly believe that our domestic economy never truly rebounded in a meaningful fashion over the last few years.
I cautioned people to avoid the regular smoke and mirrors emanating from our financial and political hotbeds in spring 2010, and have continued to caution since, when I first equated our economic malady as akin to “walking pneumonia“.>>>>>>>> (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 8th, 2011 8:42 AM |
Our ‘walking pneumonia’ economy is not making any real progress in terms of an improving labor market in the United States.
Consensus estimates for the July employment report (measuring June economic activity) had an increase of 105k jobs with many economists recently revising their estimates higher to 125k.
Their ‘guesstimates’ were not close as the non-farm payroll report released at 8:30am reflected an increase of a mere 18k jobs with downward revisions to the prior two months of 44k jobs.
Were there any hidden gems in the report? Not a one. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 9th, 2011 7:49 AM |
Have you ever had walking pneumonia? Not a lot of fun, right?
You might be able to operate but your inability to fully inhale is a real drag. I had a bout of walking pneumonia a few years back but was fortunate to get over it in about a month. If only our ‘walking pneumonia’ economy were just that lucky.
I first described our domestic economy as sufferring from this malady in early 2010 when I wrote U.S. Economy = “Walking Pneumonia”.
Going on 15 months later we continue to languish from a variety of factors that inhibit the flow of economic oxygen critical to a real recovery. While many ‘quacks’ would like to have us believe differently, let’s navigate and listen to those who write the checks which drive the oxygen into our system and propel our economic vitality. How so? (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 6th, 2011 7:41 AM |
This past Friday’s unemployment report was beyond disappointing. With non-farm payrolls increasing by a token 54,000 and the prior month’s report indicating a downward revision of 12,000 our ‘walking pneumonia’ economy continues to languish under the weight of excessive debts and grave uncertainties. What is an administration to do when faced with such a challenge? Spin, baby, spin.
Where do I witness this spin cycle working in overdrive? The Obama administration’s touting of success in saving our automotive industry. There is little doubt that the Obama team will be ‘driving’ this ‘saving’ of the automotive industry hard as part of his 2012 reelection platform. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 5th, 2011 8:16 AM |
What does our economic future hold? Great question, right?
Is our economy truly rebounding as much as our equity markets may portend or are we riding high predominantly due to government stimulus similar to an economic anabolic steroid? Is our future as bleak as the numerous and sundry doomsayers would proclaim? Does it appear as if our economy has a split personality or is operating in two different realms? Do you often wonder what others—especially those in Washington—may be seeing if the economic landscape in your backyard remains very challenging?
I continue to believe our overall economy is operating and will continue to operate with a ‘walking pneumonia’ type condition. The massive debt burdens at all levels of our economy continue to serve as a drag and inhibit any sort of truly robust rebound. Let’s navigate and take the pulse of Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute which captures real time discretionary online consumer activity. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 1st, 2011 8:52 AM |
This morning’s Unemployment Report may be presented as another in an ongoing series of gradually improving signs of economic recovery. That said, the report lacks one vitally important ingredient. What is that?
What? “LD, what the heck are you talking about?”
As any trained chef knows, “it’s the yeast that makes the dough rise!!” On that note, while pundits and analysts may care to focus on the headline unemployment rate declining to 8.8% and non-farm payrolls increasing by 216k, for those focused on the structural health and well being of our economy, I encourage you to focus on wages. (more…)