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HomeThe Recession Never Truly Ended
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 3rd, 2011 8:19 AM |
A wide array of supposedly smart people are now informing us that the economy is slowing and may slip back into recession. The new phrase being used to describe our economic condition is ‘stall speed’.
Well how about that? Stall speed, they say. Is the economy truly slowing? Is it really?
Or perhaps did the real economy, that is the one in which we live and operate—not the one fabricated by Wall Street pundits and Washington politicians—never truly rebound?
I ask because I firmly believe that our domestic economy never truly rebounded in a meaningful fashion over the last few years.
I cautioned people to avoid the regular smoke and mirrors emanating from our financial and political hotbeds in spring 2010, and have continued to caution since, when I first equated our economic malady as akin to “walking pneumonia“.>>>>>>>> (more…)
Debt Deal, Our ‘Walking Pneumonia’ Economy, QE3 and More ‘Sense on Cents’
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 1st, 2011 7:40 AM |
What now? What lies ahead on the challenging and winding road filled with clouds and great unknowns that defines our American economic landscape?
The political circus in Washington has clearly taken center stage over the last few weeks. Watching this show has been anything but entertaining and don’t think the theatrics do not harm our economy. They do.
Uncertainty breeds risk aversion and our economy needs people and businesses willing to take risks.
Can we assume that the passage of a bipartisan debt package means we can get back to business as usual and that the economy will rebound? Not so fast. (more…)
Can’t Shake That ‘Walking Pneumonia’ Economy
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 9th, 2011 7:49 AM |
Have you ever had walking pneumonia? Not a lot of fun, right?
You might be able to operate but your inability to fully inhale is a real drag. I had a bout of walking pneumonia a few years back but was fortunate to get over it in about a month. If only our ‘walking pneumonia’ economy were just that lucky.
I first described our domestic economy as sufferring from this malady in early 2010 when I wrote U.S. Economy = “Walking Pneumonia”.
Going on 15 months later we continue to languish from a variety of factors that inhibit the flow of economic oxygen critical to a real recovery. While many ‘quacks’ would like to have us believe differently, let’s navigate and listen to those who write the checks which drive the oxygen into our system and propel our economic vitality. How so? (more…)
The Unknown Costs of Saving the Auto Industry
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 6th, 2011 7:41 AM |
This past Friday’s unemployment report was beyond disappointing. With non-farm payrolls increasing by a token 54,000 and the prior month’s report indicating a downward revision of 12,000 our ‘walking pneumonia’ economy continues to languish under the weight of excessive debts and grave uncertainties. What is an administration to do when faced with such a challenge? Spin, baby, spin.
Where do I witness this spin cycle working in overdrive? The Obama administration’s touting of success in saving our automotive industry. There is little doubt that the Obama team will be ‘driving’ this ‘saving’ of the automotive industry hard as part of his 2012 reelection platform. (more…)
The Tale of Two Economies
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 5th, 2011 8:16 AM |
What does our economic future hold? Great question, right?
Is our economy truly rebounding as much as our equity markets may portend or are we riding high predominantly due to government stimulus similar to an economic anabolic steroid? Is our future as bleak as the numerous and sundry doomsayers would proclaim? Does it appear as if our economy has a split personality or is operating in two different realms? Do you often wonder what others—especially those in Washington—may be seeing if the economic landscape in your backyard remains very challenging?
I continue to believe our overall economy is operating and will continue to operate with a ‘walking pneumonia’ type condition. The massive debt burdens at all levels of our economy continue to serve as a drag and inhibit any sort of truly robust rebound. Let’s navigate and take the pulse of Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute which captures real time discretionary online consumer activity. (more…)
Unemployment Report Review, April 1, 2011: We Need Yeast
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 1st, 2011 8:52 AM |
This morning’s Unemployment Report may be presented as another in an ongoing series of gradually improving signs of economic recovery. That said, the report lacks one vitally important ingredient. What is that?
Yeast.
What? “LD, what the heck are you talking about?”
As any trained chef knows, “it’s the yeast that makes the dough rise!!” On that note, while pundits and analysts may care to focus on the headline unemployment rate declining to 8.8% and non-farm payrolls increasing by 216k, for those focused on the structural health and well being of our economy, I encourage you to focus on wages. (more…)
How Do We Get Our Economy Moving Again?
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 29th, 2010 8:44 AM |
Is there any doubt that our economy remains under severe duress or, as I have often maintained, is dealing with a serious bout of ‘walking pneumonia’? Are we supposed to merely wait this thing out? Is there little that can be done to resuscitate ‘our patient’? While there is little difficulty in identifying our economic malady, what is the cure? What mix of ‘economic medications’ may bring some life back to our national pulse?
Are we completely beholden to partisan posturing in Washington and debt strangulation in our state capitols?
What do you think should be done to get our economy moving again?
I received a recent communication from an avid supporter of Sense on Cents who shared the following: (more…)
Did the 2010 Economic Slump Just Surpass the 2008 Great Recession? Let’s Ask Rick Davis
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 14th, 2010 7:26 AM |
Economics is the most inexact of sciences. As much as we may think we can understand our future economic landscape based upon the study of the past, a variety of twists, turns, and unknown challenges inevitably come upon us. This reality has never been more prevalent than in our ‘Uncle Sam’ economy circa 2010. Do not think for a second that the ‘grand wizards’ in Washington currently undertaking the massive financial experiment throughout our economy do not appreciate this. They do. They just would not admit it.
Can we look toward private enterprises in an attempt to ‘see through’ the Washington smoke and mirrors? In fact we can. I make no bones about my admiration for the work of Rick Davis at Consumer Metrics Institute. As Rick so boldly states, the work at CMI is focused on:
“Bringing the measurements of critical economic activities into the twenty-first century by mining tracking data for an understanding of what American consumers were doing yesterday.”
Well, what were our fellow Americans doing yesterday and the days before that? (more…)
Our Ongoing Recession
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 31st, 2010 5:56 AM |
I have informed more people than I care to count that I do not believe we are going to have an economic double dip. Am I turning positive on the economy? Do I see blue skies and fair winds on our economic horizon? No, regrettably not. The reason I do not believe we will have an economic double dip is very simply I do not believe that our “real” economy, not the government sponsored version, ever really came out of the initial recession.
People may care to debate or challenge me on my premise, but my ‘sense on cents’ leads me to believe that we have been experiencing one long and ongoing recession. I definitely sense that more people are now coming to accept this reality as well. This ‘walking pneumonia’ economic syndrome is captured in a recent commentary by Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute,
The “Great Recession” that began in 2008 has had many nuances, but among the most important are that many of the observed changes in consumer behavior have begun to linger, much as the recession itself now appears to have done. If a new consumer thrift paradigm becomes endemic — either because of natural demographic processes or scarred generational memories of upside-down loans — the lingering recession might well end up being measured in years, not quarters as commonly expected. (more…)
Unemployment Report July 8…U-G-L-Y!!!
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 8th, 2011 8:42 AM |
Consensus estimates for the July employment report (measuring June economic activity) had an increase of 105k jobs with many economists recently revising their estimates higher to 125k.
Their ‘guesstimates’ were not close as the non-farm payroll report released at 8:30am reflected an increase of a mere 18k jobs with downward revisions to the prior two months of 44k jobs.
Were there any hidden gems in the report? Not a one. (more…)
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Posted in Employment, General, Unemployment | 4 Comments »