Posted by Larry Doyle on August 8th, 2013 9:01 AM |
What will future generations do with the massive tab that has been and continues to be run up under the guise of propping our economy?
That is not a rhetorical question.
Many individuals far wiser than I maintain that we will experience generational defaults as our children and children’s children determine that the bills being left to them are not worth paying or able to be paid. That day may not be all that far off. In fact, it has already come in selected municipalities in our nation with surely more to follow.
For more on this topic, I thank the regular reader who shared a fabulous read by Oaktree’s Chairman Howard Marks. Those with the time will appreciate the full memo. I welcome highlighting Marks’ concluding comments in which he shares the wisdom of The Baupost Group’s Seth Klarman as well: (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 18th, 2011 9:22 AM |
Standard & Poor’s decision this morning to place the credit rating of the United States on negative watch is long overdue. While the impact of S&P’s announcement is immediately reflected by a decline in the equity markets of approximately 1.5%-2.0%, the real target of this release is Washington D.C..
In layman’s terms the S&P release is voicing a lack of confidence in the credibility of both parties in Washington to deal with our financial house. We should not be surprised.
While politicians from both parties may talk a good game—especially recently—while they feed at the trough of the large monied interests emanating from Wall Street and other corporate entities, the American taxpayer has suffered from the incompetence and intransigence of Washington to deal with our LONGSTANDING fiscal issues and indebtedness. Playing shell games may fool some of the people all of the time but that gamesmanship is no way to manage a nation’s finances. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 13th, 2011 5:30 AM |
Do words matter?
Of course they do. If we can not trust what somebody says and means, how can we engage them in an honest, open, forthright manner? We can’t. On this note and with the prospects of aggressive debate on raising the federal debt ceiling on the near term horizon, let’s review what a United States senator had to say on this topic back in March 2006, (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 1st, 2011 8:52 AM |
This morning’s Unemployment Report may be presented as another in an ongoing series of gradually improving signs of economic recovery. That said, the report lacks one vitally important ingredient. What is that?
Yeast.
What? “LD, what the heck are you talking about?”
As any trained chef knows, “it’s the yeast that makes the dough rise!!” On that note, while pundits and analysts may care to focus on the headline unemployment rate declining to 8.8% and non-farm payrolls increasing by 216k, for those focused on the structural health and well being of our economy, I encourage you to focus on wages. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 15th, 2011 8:55 AM |
In the course of my regular early morning reading (thank you to the regular readers who feed me these resources), I came across some fabulous work.
1. The Dallas Federal Reserve puts forth an enlightening piece entitled Global Economic Conditions. The 43 page treatise covers a wealth of information but my attention was grabbed primarily by the graph highlighting the continued decline in the core rate of inflation on page 11, and the ~20% decline in the value of our U.S. dollar over the last decade versus other major currencies on page 38.
While skyrocketing food and energy costs globally will likely continue to foment civil unrest in selected nations, Fed chair Bernanke is assuredly singularly focused on that continued decline in the core rate of inflation. How will he respond? Many individuals whom I respect believe Bernanke will continue to flood our economy with more and more dollars via quantitative easing. What does that portend for the value of our greenback? It ain’t good. What do others think of our Federal Reserve and fiscal fiascos? Let’s navigate further. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 21st, 2011 7:19 AM |
With 2011 just barely out of the starting block, there are a lot of developments across our global economic landscape. What do I see? Long term interest rates are flashing warning signs. How so?
Many reasons domestically and internationally, but especially the following: (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 7th, 2011 9:15 AM |
Upon further review and with a little prompting from some regular readers, I am correcting an oversight and am pleased to now induct Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI) into the Sense on Cents Hall of Fame. He clearly deserves it.
Why induct Ryan now? Well, listen for yourself as Mr. Ryan provides a healthy dose of Midwestern values along with a man-sized portion of ‘sense on cents.’
I have no affiliation or business interest with any entity referenced in this commentary. The opinions expressed are my own and not those of Greenwich Investment Management. As President of Greenwich Investment Management, an SEC regulated privately held registered investment adviser, I am merely a proponent of real transparency within our markets so that investor confidence and investor protection can be achieved.
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 13th, 2010 7:10 AM |
Identifying a problem is one thing. Doing something about it is an entirely different issue. All too often, America’s political leaders have further exacerbated our fiscal disaster by not responsibly managing our nation’s finances. What do we get? Lots of talk. What do we need? Lots of action. Will we get it? Well, why is America poised to throw a large number of incumbents out of Washington? America wants action.
Why do we need action and a man-sized heaping of sense on cents while we are at it? Let’s have a look at what Erskine Bowles (co-head of President Obama’s national debt commission with former Senator Alan Simpson R-WY) has to say. Glen Johnson of the Associated Press writes, Debt Commission Leaders Paint Gloomy Picture:
The heads of President Barack Obama’s national debt commission painted a gloomy picture Sunday as the United States struggles to get its spending under control. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 15th, 2010 3:37 PM |
Living beyond one’s means is not a path to long-term prosperity. While America is still the greatest nation on earth in so many regards, a glaring problem within our society is the predilection of our government to think that massive deficits do not have real implications. Washington politicians are forever spending what we as a nation do not have in order to maintain their own positions of power. That is a path to mediocrity, if not worse.
Who is sending a warning shot today across our fiscal brow on this most important of topics? (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 17th, 2010 12:19 PM |
Our wizards in Washington should not be so naive to think foreign buyers, especially from Asia, will continue to finance our debt at current rates and at current levels. News yesterday that China is no longer the largest holder of our Treasury debt should not be discounted.
What are the ramifications for our nation if China and other foreign buyers decline to purchase our debt or – even worse – actually start selling even more of their current holdings? A quick and violent move higher in our domestic interest rates.
RSS Feed
Twitter
Facebook
Email
Home
This morning’s Unemployment Report may be presented as another in an ongoing series of gradually improving signs of economic recovery. That said, the report lacks one vitally important ingredient. What is that?
