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HomeUnemployment Report: March 5, 2010
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 5th, 2010 9:59 AM |
The widely anticipated March Unemployment Report covering the month of February was just released. Let’s dive right in and take a look at the numbers . . .
I. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
August: 9.4%
September: 9.7%
October: 9.8%
November: 10.2%…revised to 10.1%
December: 10%
January: 10%
February: 10.1%
– March Consensus Expectation: 9.7-9.8%
- March Actual: 9.7%
>> LD’s comments: as expected. Not widely publicized is the fact that the U-6, that is the underemployment rate moved back up from 16.5% to 16.8%. Not trying to be intentionally pessimistic but merely trying to provide a full snapshot so we can navigate accordingly. (more…)
Unemployment Report: February 5, 2010
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 5th, 2010 8:58 AM |
The widely anticipated February Unemployment Report covering the month of January was just released. Let’s dive right in and take a look at the numbers . . .
I. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
August: 9.4%
September: 9.7%
October: 9.8%
November: 10.2%…revised to 10.1%
December: 10%
January: 10%
– February Consensus Expectation: 10.1%
- February Actual: 9.7%
>> LD’s comments: A fluke. A drop in the rate would typically be viewed as a positive, but then why didn’t we see job growth? Today’s report indicates that a lot of people have given up looking for work, thus shrinking the overall labor pool. The U-6 (the underemployment rate) is now 16.5%. Better? Don’t be fooled. I think it is again more an indication that people are exiting the labor force overall. (more…)
Unemployment Report: December 4, 2009
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 4th, 2009 8:57 AM |
The widely anticipated December Unemployment Report covering the month of November was just released. Let’s dive right in and take a look at the numbers . . .
I. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
August: 9.4%
September: 9.7%
October: 9.8%
November: 10.2%
- December Consensus Expectation: 10.2%
- December Actual: 10.0% !!
>> LD’s comments: Discouraged workers did increase and exit the labor pool. That fact supported this improvement. Initial reaction to the report remains one of disbelief and skepticism. The underemployment rate (U-6 rate) improved to an overall level of 17.2%.
II. NON-FARM PAYROLL (click here for definition of this term)
July: loss of 463k
August: loss of 304k
September: loss of 154k
October: loss of 219k
November: loss of 190k
- December Consensus Expectation: loss of 100k to 125k
- December Actual: loss of 11k!!
>> LD’s comments: positive revisions to the previous two months of 159k. A major surprise. Along with the positive revisions, do not be surprised to see many analysts tout this as the turn in the economy and the fact that government programs are working. We will need more than one month’s report to confirm that. (more…)
Jobs is Job #1
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 30th, 2009 9:34 AM |
“Kiss me!!”
“What?”
That’s right, I said, “Kiss me!!”
Many a businessman is familiar with the basic principle of “kiss me,” that is “Keep It Simple, Stupid.”
Regrettably, Washington is not familiar with that simplest of business principles. Legislative bills that run into the thousands of pages and admittedly go unread by our lawmakers prior to vote are often an unmitigated disaster for American business. How so?
These bills create an environment of uncertainty. What do business leaders do when they’re unsure of what is coming out of Washington and how it might impact their business? “When in doubt, wait it out.”
I witness increasing evidence of this basic business dynamic and believe it will be on full display this coming Thursday. What will happen Thursday? President Obama is hosting a Jobs Summit in Washington. Sounds like a reasonable idea given the domestic employment situation is so bad and getting worse, despite assertions to the contrary by a number of public officials and economists.
How convenient that the summit is being held Thursday. Why? This summit will provide plenty of photo ops and media coverage highlighting that Washington is hard at work addressing the employment situation right before the monthly unemployment report is released on Friday morning. Do not think for a second that the timing of this summit was not strategically scheduled to negate the negative impact of another weak report. (more…)
Is a Jobless Recovery a Recovery?
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 16th, 2009 2:20 PM |
- Cartoon by Steve Breen, The San Diego Union-Tribune
Jobless recovery seems to be a phrase economists and analysts are using with increasing frequency. In my opinion, this usage is akin to a drug dealer or liar repeating his rationalizations to the point where he believes his own bulls%&t.
Are we to believe this economic subterfuge? I believe the American public buys into this rationalization at our peril. Why? Let’s navigate along the most important leg of our economic landscape.
Our unemployment rate currently stands at 10.2% while the underemployment rate is 17.5%. On the heels of the unemployment report released on November 6th (see my summary here), many analysts and economists revised their projections for unemployment to 11% and some as high as 14%.
Just today, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke in a speech at the Economic Club of New York highlighted the fact that the current excess supply of labor in our economy is even worse than indicated. Ponder that for a second. The lead banker in our nation is telling us that our unemployment situation is even worse than statistics would indicate. What does that mean? (more…)
Unemployment Report: November 6, 2009
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 6th, 2009 8:55 AM |
The widely anticipated November Unemployment Report covering the month of October was just released. Let’s dive right in and take a look at the numbers . . .
I. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
July: 9.5%
August: 9.4%
September: 9.7%
October: 9.8%
– November Consensus Expectation: 9.9%
– November Actual:10.2% !!!!
>> LD’s comments: this is the shocker and will get all the play. This rate is especially damaging because the participation rate declined. That drop would help the unemployment rate, all other things being equal. The fact that the rate jumped to 10.2% is an indication that job losses jumped much more than otherwise expected with a loss 558k jobs. The underemployment rate (U-6 rate) is 17.5%!!
II. NON-FARM PAYROLL (click here for definition of this term)
July: initial loss of 467k initially revised to a loss of 443k and now revised to a loss of 463k
August: initial loss of 247k revised to a loss of 276k, further revised to -304k
September: initial loss of 216k, revised to a loss of 201k, revised to a loss of 154k
October: a loss of 263k, revised to a loss of 219k
- November Consensus Expectation: loss of 175k
– November Actual: a loss of 190k with revisions of +91k to prior months
>> LD’s comments: this month’s print is slightly worse than expected, but given the revisions the overall non-farm payroll could be spun in a somewhat positive fashion. In my opinion, there has been massaging of these numbers for many months and dare I say market participants are questioning the integrity of the reports. Recall that the birth-death model has likely overestimated job creation by upwards of 800k jobs. More of the same here? Perhaps, if not likely. Temporary workers did increase by 36k jobs.
III. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
July: 0.0%
August: +.2% revised to +.3
September: came in at .3 but then revised to .4%
October: .1%
– November Consensus Expectation: +.1%
– November Actual:+.3%
>>LD’s comment: a positive for those working, but in conjunction with no movement in the hourly workweek this is muted.
IV. AVERAGE HOURLY WORKWEEK
July: 33.0 hours
August: 33.1 hours
September: 33.1 hours
October: 33.0 hours
– November Consensus Expectation: 33.0 hours
– November Actual:33.0 hours
>> LD’s comments: no indication here of any strength. This number rests at a low going back to 1964.
V. FURTHER COLOR
It’s all about the headline print of 10.2%. That number will spook consumers and keep Consumer Confidence under pressure. The Fed will clearly remain on hold for as extended as extended can be. I expect this report will cause Washington to talk about the need for another stimulus package.
VI. MARKET REACTION
At 8:10am:
2yr Tsy: .89%
10yr Tsy: 3.52%
S&P 500 Futures: +2
DJIA Futures: +14
U. S. Dollar Index: 75.78
At 8:50am, Post-Report:
2yr Tsy: .85%
10yr Tsy: 3.47%
S&P 500 Futures: -8
DJIA Futures: -68
U.S. Dollar Index: 75.86
Questions, comments, constructive criticisms always encouraged and appreciated.
If you like what you see here, please subscribe to all my work here at Sense on Cents via e-mail subscription, an RSS feed, Twitter, or Facebook. All the links are on every page.
Thanks.
LD
Jobs + Housing = Consumer Confidence
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 27th, 2009 3:05 PM |
Market analysts and government officials would attempt to define overall confidence in the economy utilizing a variety of data. In my opinion, consumer confidence is ultimately a function of two factors: employment and housing.
While Uncle Sam has spent trillions of dollars backstopping various sectors of the financial markets and billions in economic stimulus, the size and scope of our employment and housing markets vastly overwhelm Uncle Sam’s ability to ‘prop them up.’ As a result, I am not surprised to see the monthly data on consumer confidence reflecting real weakness.
Bloomberg provides further insight on this topic in writing, U.S. Economy: Consumer Confidence Drops On Unemployment Concern:
Confidence among U.S. consumers unexpectedly fell for a second month in October, reinforcing the views of Federal Reserve policy makers who say household spending will be restrained by rising unemployment.
The Conference Board’s confidence index dropped to 47.7, trailing the lowest economist forecast, from a revised 53.4 in September, a report from the New York-based private research group showed today. A measure of employment availability slid to a 26-year low. (LD’s highlight) (more…)
Unemployment Report: October 2, 2009
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 2nd, 2009 8:58 AM |
The widely anticipated October Unemployment Report covering the month of September was just released. Let’s dive right in and take a look at the numbers . . .
I. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
July: 9.5%
August: 9.4%
September: 9.7%
– October Consensus Expectation: 9.8%
– October Actual: 9.8%
>> LD’s comments: as expected and only getting worse. The underemployment rate is 17%!! (High five MC). Long term unemployed (those out of work 24 weeks or more) is 5.4 million!!
II. NON-FARM PAYROLL (click here for definition of this term)
July: initial loss of 467k initially revised to a loss of 443k and now revised to a loss of 463k
August: initial loss of 247k revised to a loss of 276k, further revised to -304k
September: initial loss of 216k, revised to a loss of 201k
– October Consensus Expectation: loss of 175k
– October Actual: a loss of 263k, with revisions to the prior two months of a further loss of 13k jobs.
>> LD’s comments: decidedly worse than expected, this figure shoots a huge hole in the case of those who thought the economy would have a V-shaped recovery. Construction lost 64k jobs. The one sector of the economy that people would expect to support this number is government jobs. This did not happen as government payrolls declined by 53k jobs. This is an indication that cities, states, and towns are cutting payroll and services as tax revenues plummet.
III. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
July: 0.0%
August: +.2% revised to +.3
September: came in at .3 with the prior month revised to .3 as well.
– October Consensus Expectation: .2%
– October Actual: .1%, also worse than expected.
>> LD’s comment: This number inspires no confidence that the economy can expect a rebound in consumer spending and retail sales anytime soon. Be mindful that the prior month was revised to +.4%. That figure is largely a result of a rise in the minimum wage.
IV. AVERAGE HOURLY WORKWEEK
July: 33.0 hours
August: 33.1 hours
September: 33.1 hours
– October Consensus Expectation: 33.1 hours
– October Actual: 33.0 hours, another big disappointment
>> LD’s comments: this number is a confirmation that businesses see no pickup in new orders. This number may be the most disappointing of all components as it hits directly at what business owners view as the future business climate.
V. FURTHER COLOR
Although many Wall Street based economists, media mavens, and government pundits are reporting these numbers as disappointing, the mere fact is prior reports were reported in a far too ebullient fashion. Our economy is trying to adapt to a lack of credit. Meredith Whitney highlights this fact in today’s WSJ in writing, The Credit Crunch Continues. Expect an increased call for greater fiscal stimulus. The fact is the government programs have largely created safety nets and pulled consumer demand forward while the major structural unemployment issues in the economy loom very large.
VI. MARKET REACTION
At 8:10am:
2yr Tsy: .87%
10yr Tsy: 3.15%
S&P 500 Futures: -3.2
DJIA Futures: -27
U. S. Dollar Index: 77.22
At 8:50am, Post-Report:
2yr Tsy: .85%
10yr Tsy: 3.14%, we did get as low as 3.10% immediately after the report.
S&P 500 Futures: -12.00, which indicates that the stock market will open up down approximately 1.2%
DJIA Futures: -104
U.S. Dollar Index: 77.30…basically unchanged. Recall that a lot of hedge funds and speculators are short dollars and long a host of risk-based assets. The dollar may improve as those risk-based markets sell off.
Questions, comments, constructive criticisms always encouraged and appreciated.
If you like what you see here, please subscribe to all my work here at Sense on Cents via e-mail subscription, an RSS feed, Twitter, or Facebook. All the links are on every page.
Thanks.
LD
Finding a Job and Growing a Career
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 28th, 2009 2:28 PM |
Is business more a function of what you know or who you know? While some people may believe one factor is more important than the other, prudent risk management dictates you put as many ‘arrows’ as possible in both ‘quivers.’
We are obviously living through extremely challenging times. The greatest challenge facing many people revolves around the question of employment. I do not pretend to have a magic formula on finding a great job and developing a long and successful career. That said, I have had enough experience helping people on and off Wall Street to provide insights on this all important topic.
In my opinion, the key to finding a job and then growing a career centers on two factors: discipline and relationships. One needs the discipline to continually move further up the learning curve. Knowledge is power. That said, all the knowledge in the world will be minimized without the ability to engage and develop relationships.
Business of all stripes is ultimately all about relationships. The ability to initiate and grow relationships is of paramount importance in any field. In the process of developing relationships, one should network extensively so that one relationship grows into multiple relationships.
This is all well and good but many people will ask, ‘where do I start?’ I would respond by collecting data and material via informational interviews before you even start to think about pursuing a job. (more…)
