Posted by Larry Doyle on February 10th, 2014 6:39 AM |
The most recent employment report released this past Friday showed an increase in non-farm payrolls of only 113k jobs but a continued decline in the overall rate of unemployed to 6.6%.
While the growth in jobs is not what we would like, the overall rate of unemployment is not bad by historical measures, right?
To steal a phrase from the inimitable radio host Paul Harvey, “And now, the rest of the story.” (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 19th, 2013 8:42 AM |
. . . the only way to deal with a whistleblower’s accusations – again, every single time and often against your own instincts – is with a hyper-bias toward believing that the informant is onto something big. Such a bias must impel you to investigate every claim ferociously.
Jack and Susy Welch, Reuters, May 1, 2012
Do you recall how former GE chairman Jack Welch was vilified by many in the mainstream media and our government for vociferously challenging the integrity of the pre-election October 2012 Employment Report? He was. As a reminder, back then Welch released this tweet:
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 9th, 2013 8:17 AM |
Put aside everything else that streams across the daily news wire, there is no doubt that the prevailing issue that causes the most concern for people in our nation is how they are putting bread on the table.
Yes, we can dispense with all the noise that spews forth from far too many sources, the issue that is most prominent to our economic well being remains JOBS, JOBS, JOBS. So where are the jobs and why aren’t they being created to any meaningfully degree a full five years after the outset of our economic crisis? (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 18th, 2013 8:53 AM |
It took a few weeks, but the relatively recent smokescreen of a strengthening economy put forth by Ben Bernanke began to lift yesterday.
I find it especially interesting that it was not some new string of weak economic data that prompted the Fed chair to express increased caution about what is truly going on in the real world economy.
In fact, for what I believe might be the first time, Bernanke cautiously addressed the fact that the structural changes in our economy reflected in a significant decline in the labor force participation rate might be more indicative of our economic health than the actual unemployment rate.
A whiff of the truth amidst the daily diet of verbal diarrhea emanating from D.C? What a novel concept. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 1st, 2013 10:18 AM |
The unemployment report for January 2013 was released this morning and provides better than expected news on the surface but with some reasons for concern as well. Let’s navigate.
The Wall Street Journal review highlights the following:
Jobs growth for January fell short of expectations but continued at a moderate pace. However, The unemployment rate reversed course a bit, rising to 7.9 percent in January from 7.8 percent the month before. Analysts expected a 7.7 percent unemployment rate. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 13th, 2012 8:21 AM |
A marksman with a powerful weapon not properly focused on an appropriate target is capable of wreaking real havoc.
Who is the marksman? Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke. What is his powerful weapon? Monetary policy. What is the appropriate target? The level of employment in our nation. What might be the havoc? The list is too long but let’s start with a breakdown in the relationship between monetary policy and inflation and work our way to civil unrest. Havoc does not typically connote a well defined set of outcomes.
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 7th, 2012 9:38 AM |
The unemployment report for the month of November was just released and is better than expected with non-farm payrolls increasing by 146, 000 jobs and the overall unemployment rate dropping to 7.7%. Happy times are here again, right? Wait, revise that.
While many pundits in Washington and on Wall Street are more than welcome to go little further than the headline numbers, let’s go behind the curtain and look a little bit closer. What do we see? Ooh, what’s this on the very last line of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report . . . (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 5th, 2012 10:13 AM |
Was the unemployment report released this morning gamed by the powers that be in Washington? Former General Electric CEO Jack Welch thinks so and had this to say in a tweet released right after the report:
Well, while Welch and many others believe a conspiracy is at work, let’s take a harder look at the numbers.
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 3rd, 2012 9:50 AM |
The monthly jobs report came out and is viewed as slightly better than expected but provides both sides of the political debate sufficient fodder to spin it to their advantage.
While equity markets want to put a happy face on the report (an increase in non-farm payroll of 163,000 jobs along with an uptick in the unemployment rate to 8.3%), I have little real confidence in the report signaling meaningful improvement in our economy.
Why am I concerned that our economy is poised to slow and potentially contract? Forget the employment report, let’s look elsewhere to get a better read on economic growth going into year end. (more…)