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Posts Tagged ‘Federal Reserve policy’

Federal Reserve Quandary: Stagflation

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 18th, 2014 9:44 AM |

The Federal Reserve will wrap up its regularly scheduled meeting and release its highly anticipated statement this afternoon at 2pm. The markets always eagerly await this statement so as to read the tea leaves and see what they say about our economy and the impact on interest rates.

Do we really need to wait for 2pm, though, to determine what is really going on in our economy? I think not. What do we know? Plenty, although the financial media, government officials, and the bankers themselves are not always fully forthcoming in promoting the truth. Let’s navigate. (more…)

The Real Employment Situation in America

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 10th, 2014 6:39 AM |

The most recent employment report released this past Friday showed an increase in non-farm payrolls of only 113k jobs but a continued decline in the overall rate of unemployed to 6.6%.

While the growth in jobs is not what we would like, the overall rate of unemployment is not bad by historical measures, right?

To steal a phrase from the inimitable radio host Paul Harvey, “And now, the rest of the story.” (more…)

MarketWatch: Don’t Fall Victim to QE Trap

Posted by Larry Doyle on January 13th, 2014 9:08 AM |

I have a commentary running today on MarketWatch that addresses some perils and potential pitfalls stemming from the tapering of the Fed’s quantitative easing.

4 Ways The Fed Taper Puts Your Money at Risk: Don’t Fall Victim to The Fed’s QE Trap

“I don’t know what they are, but I know where they are!”

I had to chuckle when a fellow trader with whom I worked uttered that remark about the markets in which he trafficked. In so many words, he was admitting that he focused almost entirely on daily flows and technical developments within his market sector, while paying little attention to the underlying fundamentals of the securities themselves.

Ignoring fundamentals is dangerous.  (more…)

Goldman’s Call As to Future Federal Reserve Policy

Posted by Larry Doyle on November 7th, 2013 9:06 AM |

What might be the next move by the all powerful Federal Reserve as it goes about trying to nurse our economy back to health?

Mike O’ Rourke, chief market strategist at Jones Trading recently highlighted that the folks at Goldman Sachs believe Fed policy may be set to shift. I mean, who on Wall Street might have the ear of the Fed more than the folks at Goldman, right? Ok, ok, enough of the sarcasm.

Let’s navigate as O’ Rourke interprets Goldman’s reading of the Fed’s tarot cards regarding future monetary policy.  (more…)

Bhide: Wanted: A Boring Leader for The Fed

Posted by Larry Doyle on August 21st, 2013 7:22 AM |

bhide_2008_smallSo who should be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve?

While we are fed a regular diet of drivel from those who might believe they know what is in the best interest of our nation, these political insiders might want to look a little further for truly informed opinion. To whom should they listen?

I would suggest they lend an ear to Amar Bhide, a professor at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, who provides real sense on cents on this topic.   (more…)

Boston Fed Research Paper: The Key Variable for Monetary Policy Is . . .

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 26th, 2013 7:47 AM |

Are we supposed to really think that Ben Bernanke believes our economy — and especially our employment situation — is markedly improving?

If we were to gather our news from USA Today or similar outlets, I guess we could just think just that.

Let’s dig a little deeper.

What are many in and around the Federal Reserve likely reviewing in an attempt to gauge the real health of our employment situation? (more…)

Ben Bernanke Pulls a Yogi Berra

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 2nd, 2013 8:04 AM |

When you come to a fork in the road . . . take it.

In the early years of the last decade, I had the pleasant experience of attending a dinner for a major client at which Yogi Berra was a guest speaker. As a lifelong baseball fan — and by the way,  how ’bout those Red Sox? — I looked forward to hearing Yogi regale us with legendary tales about the great Yankee teams.

He started his delivery by unequivocally stating, “I am not good at giving talks, so just go ahead and ask me some questions.” He entertained us with a slew of his famous non-sequiturs in fine fashion.

I thought of Yogi and that dinner when the Federal Reserve released its statement on the economy yesterday afternoon. (Do you notice a facial similarity between Ben and Yogi?) Having read Fed releases for the last thirty years, I am hard pressed to ever remember a statement as ambiguous as this  put out yesterday:

R. Wenzel: Federal Reserve An Unmitigated FAILURE

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 28th, 2012 9:17 AM |

This commentary is a little lengthy but a great and absolute MUST READ!! LD

Who really runs America?

The media may actively and aggressively debate the pandering provided by those on both ends of the political spectrum. But to whom do these pols really answer? The American public? I do not think so.

The Washington establishment strikes me as little more than puppets played by the one controlling the money. Who might that be? The all powerful and, all assertions to the contrary, perpetually opaque Federal Reserve.

Let’s navigate deep into the chambers of the New York Federal Reserve. (more…)

Will There Be a QE3?

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 28th, 2011 7:56 AM |

Is there really any doubt that virtually all our markets, especially commodities and with the exception of real estate, have been propped higher as a direct or indirect result of the Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative easing? I have no doubt.

The question remains outstanding just how far the Fed, in concert with its banking friends on Wall Street, has gone and will go to further manipulate our markets. That question may never be fully answered. What a shame! For those who believe a preponderance of truth, transparency, and integrity are the cornerstones for long term fiscal health and financial well being our markets remain a decidedly challenging arena.

In light of this reality and with the end of QE2 on the horizon this June, where do we go from here? A reader posed that very question the other day. (more…)

What Will the Fed Do When QE2 Fails to Stimulate Economy?

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 29th, 2010 5:56 AM |

Here we are a full three years into our economic malaise, Uncle Sam has thrown everything and the kitchen sink at the economy yet we have little to no traction in terms of growth and momentum. Will another trillion dollars of liquidity do the trick? Well, while the Fed’s liquidity may move markets, will it move the economy? Don’t bet on it. The Fed and its brethren on Wall Street and in Washington are reluctant to truly level with the American people. How so?

Our nation is experiencing a serious structural change in our economy — not a mere ‘enormous downturn’ in the midst of the business cycle. If our central bankers and government officials were to emphasize this point, it may cause a sharper retrenchment in our current growth but it would likely lead to a quicker rebound. Before we get into why our bankers and their political cronies are reluctant to make this acknowledgement, let’s take the pulse of an array of venture capitalists, money managers, and others who provide the capital to a wide array of companies. What do these individuals think the economic impact of another round of quantitative easing might be? (more…)

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