Posted by Larry Doyle on February 22nd, 2013 6:53 AM |
Who might that be flashing the warning signals about our markets and our economy?
I am always predisposed to look for risk on the horizon so that we can all navigate accordingly, but the quote referenced in the title of this commentary comes not from me but from professors at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business.
What prompts them to make such a statement? Only a survey of over a thousand global CFOs that projects economic activity a quarter ahead of most other surveys. Now that is the type of material we like as opposed to the “look in the rear view mirror” provided by many outlets.
Let’s navigate . . .
Chief Financial Officers See More Downside Risk in the Stock Market than Upside (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 16th, 2011 7:54 AM |
Is that proverbial light around the bend merely another train coming the other way? Or utilizing another railroad analogy, can our economic caboose continue to chug along under the weight and duress of so much excess capacity and baggage?
Well, given the fact that I have limited trust in economic releases from our friends in Washington, let’s review a private survey of chief financial officers produced by Duke University, >>>> (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 9th, 2011 7:49 AM |
Have you ever had walking pneumonia? Not a lot of fun, right?
You might be able to operate but your inability to fully inhale is a real drag. I had a bout of walking pneumonia a few years back but was fortunate to get over it in about a month. If only our ‘walking pneumonia’ economy were just that lucky.
I first described our domestic economy as sufferring from this malady in early 2010 when I wrote U.S. Economy = “Walking Pneumonia”.
Going on 15 months later we continue to languish from a variety of factors that inhibit the flow of economic oxygen critical to a real recovery. While many ‘quacks’ would like to have us believe differently, let’s navigate and listen to those who write the checks which drive the oxygen into our system and propel our economic vitality. How so? (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 8th, 2010 8:18 AM |
The question most asked in economic circles is, “How and when will our economy return to normal?” My response is always, “What is normal?”
I find it most impactful to explain to people looking to gain a greater understanding of our economy and our markets that the normal economy of the late ’90s through 2007 was driven by the shadow banking system. This shadow banking system provided upwards of 40-45% of the total credit employed by our economy.
The shadow banking system incorporated the credit origination, securitization, and distribution businesses of Wall Street investment banks as opposed to the traditional lines of credit provided by commercial banking activities.
The crisis on Wall Street 2008 brought this shadow banking system to a virtual standstill. While it has begun to resuscitate itself, it remains a mere shadow (no pun intended) of its former self. What is the result? (more…)