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Posts Tagged ‘New Normal’

CFO Survey: A Time of Extraordinary Risk

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 22nd, 2013 6:53 AM |

Who might that be flashing the warning signals about our markets and our economy?

I am always predisposed to look for risk on the horizon so that we can all navigate accordingly, but the quote referenced in the title of this commentary comes not from me but from professors at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business.

What prompts them to make such a statement? Only a survey of over a thousand global CFOs that projects economic activity a quarter ahead of most other surveys. Now that is the type of material we like as opposed to the “look in the rear view mirror” provided by many outlets.

Let’s navigate . . .

Chief Financial Officers See More Downside Risk in the Stock Market than Upside (more…)

Did the 2010 Economic Slump Just Surpass the 2008 Great Recession? Let’s Ask Rick Davis

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 14th, 2010 7:26 AM |

Economics is the most inexact of sciences. As much as we may think we can understand our future economic landscape based upon the study of the past, a variety of twists, turns, and unknown challenges inevitably come upon us. This reality has never been more prevalent than in our ‘Uncle Sam’ economy circa 2010. Do not think for a second that the ‘grand wizards’ in Washington currently undertaking the massive financial experiment throughout our economy do not appreciate this. They do. They just would not admit it.

Can we look toward private enterprises in an attempt to ‘see through’ the Washington smoke and mirrors? In fact we can. I make no bones about my admiration for the work of Rick Davis at Consumer Metrics Institute. As Rick so boldly states, the work at CMI is focused on:

“Bringing the measurements of critical economic activities into the twenty-first century by mining tracking data for an understanding of what American consumers were doing yesterday.”

Well, what were our fellow Americans doing yesterday and the days before that? (more…)

Bill Gross Projects The ‘Threshold of Mediocrity’

Posted by Larry Doyle on July 3rd, 2010 7:31 AM |

Pimco’s Bill Gross, a Sense on Cents Economic All-Star, recently released his Investment Outlook for July 2010.  In my opinion, Gross is an outstanding writer with an uncanny ability to communicate effectively on a host of financial, social, and psychological topics from both a macro and micro standpoint. Given those skills along with the fact that he manages the largest bond fund in the world, “sense on cents” dictates that we ponder his words of wisdom.

These words focus on the structural changes at work in the world today, and how investors should brace themselves for returns that are on the ‘threshold of mediocrity.’

Gross writes:

Global financial market returns stand at the threshold of mediocrity. With bonds priced not for recession but near depression, most major global bond indices now yield less than 3%, surely a forerunner of returns to come. (more…)






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