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Posts Tagged ‘cooking the books’

Debt Deal, Our ‘Walking Pneumonia’ Economy, QE3 and More ‘Sense on Cents’

Posted by Larry Doyle on August 1st, 2011 7:40 AM |

What now? What lies ahead on the challenging and winding road filled with clouds and great unknowns that defines our American economic landscape?

The political circus in Washington has clearly taken center stage over the last few weeks. Watching this show has been anything but entertaining and don’t think the theatrics do not harm our economy. They do.

Uncertainty breeds risk aversion and our economy needs people and businesses willing to take risks.

Can we assume that the passage of a bipartisan debt package means we can get back to business as usual and that the economy will rebound? Not so fast. (more…)

Housing Double Dip Represents ‘Patient’ Opportunity

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 1st, 2011 9:30 AM |

While various and sundry soothsayers have been touting the relative merits of our housing market for the last few years, I did not have a constructive comment about housing until just six weeks ago when I wrote, Is It Getting Time To Buy a House?. Housing price data released yesterday confirmed that our nations’ housing market has, in fact, suffered a double dip.

Is my positive commentary on housing premature and akin to ‘catching a falling knife’? Why was I negative for so long? Why do I think the bottoming process will be prolonged? What do I see as a compelling reason why homeownership is becoming increasingly attractive? Let’s navigate.

1. Why was I negative for so long? (more…)

“The Giant Elephant in The Room”

Posted by Larry Doyle on September 21st, 2010 12:02 PM |

What is holding back our economy? Why isn’t there more credit available in our banking system?

I have answered these questions numerous times over the last two years BUT many in Washington pretend not to know the answer and pander to their constituencies in the process. Regular readers of Sense on Cents are well aware that the books of our banks–especially our largest money center banks–remain chock-filled with loans that are being valued far in excess of what they are truly worth. Let’s navigate.   

I first addressed issues within the second mortgage and HELOC (home equity line of credit) space in Fall of 2008 (Sense on Cents/Second Mortgages). Here we are a full two years later and America still has not received a straight answer and a full accounting by the banks or their regulators as to this “sinkhole” on their books and in our economy. 

Let’s dive into this hole, get a little dirty, and again expose the issues within this sector. (more…)

Why I Do Not Trust Washington

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 25th, 2010 11:47 AM |

People can debate the relative strength of the economy all they want. I firmly believe that from a macro-level, our economy has years to go before it has a real chance to recover. Why years?

1. The banking system overall remains loaded with an excessive amount of delinquent loans. Uncle Sam will continue to siphon money from the American public and deliver it to the banks. In the process, these “earnings” will be utilized to write down the values of loans and securities it holds at inflated levels.

2. Credit will not truly flow until the health of banks, especially the smaller and community based banks, is substantially stronger. (more…)

Where is Wall Street Hiding Hundred Plus Billion in Lo$$es?

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 8th, 2010 11:24 AM |

U.S. Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA)

Banks are increasingly healthy, right? Our nation’s accounting rules promote real transparency and integrity in our financial reporting, right? Housing is bottoming, right? No, no, and no!

Why so pessimistic, you may ask? I am not pessimistic at all. I am merely searching for the truth in the midst of the smoke and mirrors on Wall Street and in Washington.

Thank you to our friends at 12th Street Capital for sharing a recently released letter from Congressman Barney Frank imploring the four largest banks involved in mortgage originations to write off second liens they are holding on their books at inflated values.

Why does Congressman Frank believe these loans need to be written off? (more…)

Public Pension “Smoothies” Will Cost $2 Trillion

Posted by Larry Doyle on January 5th, 2010 11:11 AM |

Life will get increasingly expensive in America 2010.

Just because the calendar changed does not mean the smoke and mirrors disguising massive losses in banks, insurance companies, and federal and municipal operations have undergone some massive purging. If anything, the policies and programs developed in 2009 have likely only exacerbated the losses across a wide cross section of our economic landscape.

Our federal deficit obviously dwarfs all public and private deficits combined. That said, the obfuscation in other financial corners of our economic landscape are egregious. This obfuscation is often accomplished via an accounting practice known as smoothing. While this practice is not necessarily an indication of improper – if not illegal – financial chicanery, very often the two go hand in hand. Which financial institutions most seriously violated generally accepted accounting practices via smoothing? Hello Freddie. Hello Fannie. And we will pay.

Where else will American taxpayers pay? Public pensions. How much will the smoothie cost at the public pension Dairy Queen? How does $2 trillion sound, or a full four to five times the currently projected cost? (more…)

The Relaxation of Mark-to-Market May be Stiffening

Posted by Larry Doyle on July 23rd, 2009 2:07 PM |

I have always thought the relaxation of the mark-to-market accounting standard by the Federal Accounting Standards Board (FASB) was nothing more than a vehicle for banks to ‘cook their books.’

Is the grill getting ready to be turned down, if not totally turned off? Kudos again to Bloomberg’s Jonathan Weil for his cutting edge review and analysis of major accounting issues and their impact on our financial industry. Weil reports, Accountants Gain Courage to Stand Up to Bankers:

The Financial Accounting Standards Board is girding for another brawl with the banking industry over mark-to-market accounting. And this time, it’s the FASB that has come out swinging.

It was only last April that the FASB caved to congressional pressure by passing emergency rule changes so that banks and insurance companies could keep long-term losses from crummy debt securities off their income statements.

Now the FASB says it may expand the use of fair-market values on corporate income statements and balance sheets in ways it never has before. Even loans would have to be carried on the balance sheet at fair value, under a preliminary decision reached July 15. The board might decide whether to issue a formal proposal on the matter as soon as next month.

I am truly heartened (yet simultaneously shocked) that the FASB would choose to pick this fight with the financial industry and their Congressional counterparts at this time. Washington has unequivocally laid out a plan to ‘buy time’ for financial institutions, and in turn the economy, to recover. This proposal, Financial Instruments: Improvements to Recognition and Measurement, would certainly promote transparency while likely exposing real problems within financial institutions.

Weil provides further piercing insights:

“They know they screwed up, and they took action to correct for it,” says Adam Hurwich, a partner at New York investment manager Jupiter Advisors LLC and a member of the FASB’s Investors Technical Advisory Committee. “The more pushback there’s going to be, the more their credibility is going to be established.”

The scope of the FASB’s initiative, which has received almost no attention in the press, is massive. All financial assets would have to be recorded at fair value on the balance sheet each quarter, under the board’s tentative plan.

This would mean an end to asset classifications such as held for investment, held to maturity and held for sale, along with their differing balance-sheet treatments. Most loans, for example, probably would be presented on the balance sheet at cost, with a line item below showing accumulated change in fair value, and then a net fair-value figure below that. For lenders, rule changes could mean faster recognition of loan losses, resulting in lower earnings and book values.

What would this rule change have meant for CIT?

The commercial lender, which is struggling to stay out of bankruptcy, said in a footnote to its last annual report that its loans as of Dec. 31 were worth $8.3 billion less than its balance sheet showed. The difference was greater than CIT’s reported shareholder equity. That tells you the company probably was insolvent months ago, only its book value didn’t show it.

What does the banking lobby think of this proposed rule change?

“I guess the nicest thing I can say is it’s difficult to find the good in this,” Donna Fisher, the American Bankers Association’s tax and accounting director in Washington, told me.

Weil concludes:

If the bankers don’t like it, that’s probably a good sign the FASB is doing something right.

Sense on Cents concurs and will be monitoring developments very closely. Thank you Mr. Weil.

LD






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