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HomeHousing Plans Promote Long, Slow Decline
Posted by senseoncents on February 26th, 2010 9:32 AM |
Why do I remain overall bearish on housing?
All reports to the contrary, the pace of delinquencies will continue to steadily pressure housing — especially in selected markets.
While the Obama administration is dogged by the issues within housing, I continue to believe that their approach is more exacerbating the situation than improving it. What is the crux of the problem within housing? The law of unintended consequences which changes the behaviors of some, given the engagement with others.
Bloomberg provides some insights on Obama’s new proposals toward housing in writing, Obama May Prohibit Home-Loan Foreclosures Without Preview:
The Obama administration may expand efforts to ease the housing crisis by banning all foreclosures on home loans unless they have been screened and rejected by the government’s Home Affordable Modification Program. (more…)
More Bank Fraud
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 16th, 2010 12:53 PM |
The bailing out of our largest financial institutions was a violation of moral hazard of the greatest magnitude. With that violation well in place, America is now facing violations of other moral hazards. What do I mean?
The mortgage modification program is a joke because the banks holding the mortgages have no incentive in modifying them. Why? Because, to a very large extent, if the bank modifies the primary mortgage then it has to write off the value of a second lien, if in fact a second lien exists. Given the amount of equity borrowers took out of their homes, there are a lot of second liens outstanding.
How are the banks handling these second liens? Violating a moral hazard and committing fraud in the process. A report from CNBC, Big Banks Accused of Short Sale Fraud, highlights this reality. The report outlines: (more…)
12th Street Capital Prescient re: Mortgage Fraud
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 12th, 2010 3:33 PM |
Last August, our friends at 12th Street Capital highlighted the strong likelihood of increased mortgage fraud by brokers originating loans with FHA insurance. In my piece “Fair and Fraudulent Mortgage Lending,” I referenced the stellar work and perspectives provided by KD and his 12th Street team. I wrote:
Where can one go to receive a fair deal in the process of getting mortgage financing? What parts of the mortgage market may represent the next wave of fraud? Which firms may currently be involved in these frauds?
Major “high five” to KD and our friends at 12th Street Capital for providing tremendous perspectives on these topics this morning. KD writes:
From the Fair Mortgage Collaborative website . . .
The Fair Mortgage Collaborative is a nonprofit membership organization whose members are individually and collectively committed to providing low and moderate income and minority homeowners and homebuyers access to mortgages with the consumers’ best interests at its core, at a fair rate of compensation. Our approaches and standards work for all homeowners and homebuyers.
KD’s comment: “While I certainly applaud their effort, I would make the friendly suggestion they should be looking at FHA lenders and Reverse Mortgage lenders in particular . . . for those are the bastions of future (and current) abuses.”
What do we learn today, five months later? The Wall Street Journal reports on a number of mortgage firms being subpoenaed for the very activities highlighted by 12th Street last August. (more…)
Mortgage Meltdown Continues
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 21st, 2009 1:22 PM |
While the equity market continues its ascent into the heavens, our housing market continues its descent into hell.
How long can these two indicators continue their contradictory movements? It is extremely hard to believe that the price actions and underlying dynamics in these indices can continue for an extended period. While Uncle Sam’s liquidity has been phenomenal in generating support for the equity markets, it has been decidedly less supportive to the housing market.
The Wall Street Journal addresses the ongoing meltdown in the housing and mortgage markets in writing, Mortgage Markets Continued to Falter in 3rd Quarter:
The U.S. housing market continued to deteriorate in the third quarter as even the most credit-worthy borrowers increasingly fell behind on their mortgages, highlighting the problems policy makers have faced in trying to address the problem.
A new report from the Office of Thrift Supervision and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency found that the percentage of current and performing mortgages dropped for the sixth consecutive quarter, as foreclosures in process topped 1 million mortgages at the end of September. The report covers roughly 34 million loans totaling $6 trillion in principal balances, or approximately 65% of the U.S. mortgage market.
The regulators said that serious delinquencies, loans that are at least 60 days past due, increased across all loan categories and climbed to 6.2% of the loans in the portfolio during the third quarter. The report said that just 67.7% of option adjustable-rate mortgages were considered current at the end of the third quarter, while 27.9% were either seriously delinquent or in the process of foreclosure. (more…)
Mortgage Modification Applications Decline in November
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 14th, 2009 4:01 PM |
If you don’t buy a ticket, you can’t get into the game.
The Obama administration’s attempt to stabilize the housing market has been an abysmal failure. That fact has been widely broadcast here at Sense on Cents and increasingly at other outlets. While the administration is now attempting to revive this initiative, the fact is the trend in this program is declining. What trend? How is that defined?
Just as a student won’t gain admission to a school without having applied, similarly homeowners will not gain the benefits of a mortgage modification without processing an application. Thank you to our friends at 12th Street Capital for sharing a recent report produced by Bank of America highlighting a number of trends in mortgage modifications, including applications. Let’s navigate. Bank of America reports:
Last month we said that we expected the focus of the HAMP program to shift from outreach and initiation of new trial modifications to completion of modifications and much of this has been confirmed now. The number of trial modifications started over the last month was the lowest yet at about 77k. This represents more than a 50% drop from the prior month. Also, the number of offers given over the last month was at all time lows dropping 30% from the previous month. This month’s report also disclosed permanent modifications for the first time. So far, 31k trial modifications have been successfully converted to permanent modifications. This represents only 4% of started trial modifications. Furthermore, an equal number have failed and are no longer active.
What are the actual figures for mortgage modification applications since this program was launched last spring? BofA reports:
May: 50,130
June: 93,146
July: 110,397
Aug: 133,192
Sept: 100,216
Oct: 163,913
Nov: 77,414,
While Uncle Sam will try to make a go of saving this program, the fact is it’s a pea shooter in the midst of a sandstorm. What would be the heavy artillery? Principal reduction via mortgage cram-downs.
Although Congress has shot down that plan twice, look for a return engagement in 2010.
For those interested in reviewing the Bank of America Mortgage Modification Monitor, click on the image below to access the entire pdf document:
LD
UPDATE: Mortgage Modifications Leading to Mortgage Cram-Downs
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 11th, 2009 11:38 AM |
Despite overwhelming efforts on the part of Uncle Sam, the simple fact of the matter is the program to successfully and permanently modify mortgages has not gained truly meaningful traction. Public pressure on mortgage servicers specifically and the mortgage modification program at large have generated a slight, but hardly significant, increase in permanent modifications over the last month. Let’s review the statistics provided by Uncle Sam’s Making Home Affordable Program:
(more…)
Obama Administration Ready to Admit Failure of Mortgage Modification Program
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 8th, 2009 11:19 AM |
Throwing good money after bad is not a practice that generates long term success and prosperity. In fact, the unintended consequences and costs of dysfunctional government programs should never be discounted. While intentions of certain programs may be noble, the practicality of Uncle Sam’s attempt to manipulate a market is not easily achieved. I am writing about the results of the Obama administration’s mortgage modification program.
I highlighted the state of this program in October in writing, “Mortgage Modifications: Statistically Insignificant”:
Status of Efforts
• 63 servicers had signed participation agreements for the first-lien modification program;
• More than 1.3 million solicitation letters for HAMP loan modifications to borrowers;
• More than 328,000 HAMP trial modification offers to borrowers;
• More than 209,000 HAMP trial modifications had started;. . . and of the 209,000 mortgage modifications (.3% of total homeowners) started in the country, how are we doing?
• 1,080 borrowers had successfully completed the trial period and received HAMP modifications.
Yep. A whopping 1,080 borrowers have successfully completed the trial period and received modifications. A full .5% of those modifications that had started. Yes, a full 1,080 homeowners. I am sure there are plenty of homeowners still in the trial period, but even 209,000 homeowners as a percentage of the overall housing market is hardly significant.
What have we learned about housing over the last few months? Servicers have little interest in this program. Homeowners who are more than 30 days past due also have little interest in this program. The number 1,080 is clear evidence of that and, in my opinion, renders the entire mortgage modification program statistically insignificant.
Today we learn the Obama administration will release details later this week indicating that 6% of those mortgages in the modification process have now or will ultimately be successfully and permanently modified. (more…)
Have Mortgage Delinquencies Peaked?
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 8th, 2009 9:43 AM |
This past May, I designated mortgage delinquencies as “The Most Critical Economic Statistic.” I wrote then and continue to believe now:
Which economic statistic is the most important? Unemployment? Housing starts? Trade deficit? Inflation? Retail sales?
Well, they are all important . . . but as I review the many statistics, the economic data that I believe most significant are loan delinquencies.
While assorted analysts and economists have called the bottom in housing numerous times, rest assured a true bottom will not be established until we see a meaningful decline in mortgage delinquencies. Why? There is a strong correlation between delinquencies, defaults, and foreclosures. Until delinquencies decline, the supply of homes coming onto the market through the foreclosure process will not abate.
While analysts and economists have been wrong in their calls to this point, I keep my eyes and ears open when another entity calls a peak in the rate of delinquencies. I witnessed another one again this morning. (more…)
