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Posts Tagged ‘2nd quarter GDP’

ECRI Had Forecasted GDP Weakness

Posted by Larry Doyle on July 29th, 2011 9:14 AM |

While economists up and down Wall Street express real surprise at the GDP reports this morning, regular readers of this blog hopefully recall the siren sounded by the Economic Cycle Research Institute in mid-May.

I highlighted the ECRI’s warning at that time in writing, ECRI Forecasting Global Economic Slowdown,

The ECRI clearly has a strong pedigree. More importantly the ECRI is not compromised by an existing relationship with a global investment bank or another entity looking to sell financial products. Against that backdrop, the crowd at the ECRI sees storm clouds on the horizon. Just yesterday IBD released a report covering ECRI’s forecast entitled Cruel Summer?>>>>>>>> (more…)

Rick Davis Nailed 1st Qtr 2010 GDP Report on November 30, 2009

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 30th, 2010 9:41 AM |

How would you like to have the answers to a quarterly report before other participants have even thought that the activity is occurring, data is being compiled, analysis is being rendered, and the results are released? That would truly be awesome, wouldn’t it?

Can you imagine college students knowing the answers to their final exam before other students have even registered for the class? A doctor successfully making the diagnosis, while other doctors are waiting for the patient to arrive at the hospital? How about  a weatherman pinpointing forecasts literally months in advance? Well, in my opinion, the work produced by Rick Davis of Consumer Metrics Institute is the economic equivalent of these seemingly miraculous calls. (more…)

Consumer Metrics Institute Projects 3rd Quarter GDP of -2%!! That’s Right -2%!!

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 2nd, 2010 8:25 AM |

Do you hear a grinding sound? Listen a little harder. That sound is the brakes being applied to the U.S. economy.

The current price action in commodities markets (as highlighted in my commentary yesterday, “Commodities Growling Like a Bear”) is very much reflective of this braking process. How do we measure the slowing? Where can we gain evidence? Let’s turn to Rick Davis’ fabulous work at Consumer Metrics Institute.

Recall that Rick has not only been way out in front with his calls on the growth of the U.S. economy, but also very accurate especially given that he is projecting GDP a full 4 months prior to its official release. (more…)






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