RSS Feed
Twitter
Facebook
Email
HomeThe ISDA Emperor Also Has No Clothes
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 2nd, 2012 7:42 AM |
Writing down sovereign debt by over 50% and subordinating one class of bondholders from another –those being the royalty ensconced within the European Central Bank — would not qualify as a “credit” event, now would it? No way! Of course not! Why would it?!
Not when those compelled to pay out on the supposed “insurance” within derivative contracts are the royalty within other large international banks, and they sit in the positions of judge, jury, and counterparty in the case.
Welcome to the world of international finance circa 2012. (more…)
Might Germany “Annex” Greece and “Breakthrough to a New Europe”?
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 31st, 2012 6:37 AM |
You do not need me to tell you that it can get mighty cold in Germany during the winter months.
Don’t you think many Germans would like a nice warm vacation in the Greek Isles when those winds are whipping through the cold, dark forests and industrial cities of Deutschland? Sounds nice, heh??
Think the Germans may bargain for discount vacations in Greece if not outright ownership of some prime beachfront real estate in the Greek Isles as potential compensation for bailing Greece out of its current fiscal mess?
I am speaking largely in jest…but not totally. Why so? Let’s navigate. (more…)
What Will Really Happen in Europe?
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 5th, 2011 6:44 PM |
Are we really supposed to believe the news released today that German Prime Minister Angela Merkel and French Prime Minister Nicolas Sarkozy favor a meaningful change in the Maastricht Treaty which serves as the basis for the European Union?
Seriously, how many times have we gone down this road hearing that the European heads of state and central bankers have struck a deal to save the EU and the euro?
Didn’t we just hear news of that sort merely a month ago, and now once again all eyes and ears are on the next major European summit to be held later this week? In typical, political fashion, the markets and ministers are front running the summit in an attempt to convey an air of equanimity while pretending that they are about to pull the proverbial rabbit out of the hat. (more…)
Is Germany Preparing a European Power Play?
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 17th, 2011 10:36 AM |
What will be the end game for the European Union? Clearly the EU will not and cannot maintain the status quo.
With contagion clearly spreading throughout the EU and by extension the global economy, the stakes within the EU are raised almost on a daily basis. Where will this end up?
Who knows but what we do know is that the “road to perdition” or some form of “extended purgatory” will ultimately run not through Brussels, nor London, nor Paris, nor Athens, nor Rome but through the German capital of Berlin.
What are the Germans thinking? What might they have in store? (more…)
Ireland’s Sinn Fein Leaders Say, Screw ‘EU’…and the IMF and ECB as Well
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 23rd, 2010 7:03 AM |
Is there any greater motivation for man than the sense of being disenfranchised?
Throughout history, those who have been disenfranchised have used that reality as the motivation to move mountains…..if not governments. What stokes the fire of those who would take up their cause and speak out on behalf of their people? Not only a sense of injustice but often merely a lack of representation. We witness a growing sense of all these realities in the Republic of Ireland. Why’s that?
The Irish citizenry are increasingly aware that the Irish “bailout” brokered yesterday by the IMF, the European Commission, and European Central Bank is truly a backdoor bailout of international banking institutions on the continent with the costs to be borne by the Irish people. While Ireland’s sitting government may have balked at this bailout, ultimately they caved to the pressure from the powers within the EU. Sinn Fein, the opposition party in Ireland, is speaking out aggressively on behalf of the Irish people who are bearing the cost of bailing out international banks.
The Euro and other related markets overnight are very much aware of the growing opposition within Ireland to the ‘backdoor bank bailout’. Risk premiums are rising across many market segments as a result. Let’s navigate ‘across the pond’ to the Emerald Isle and listen to the leaders of Sinn Fein, including its ‘tough as nails’ President Gerry Adams (the second to speak in this video clip), rail on the sitting Irish government, Fianna Fail, and those within the EU who orchestrated this ‘backdoor bank bailout.’
Navigate accordingly.
Larry Doyle
Irish Bailout Is a Backdoor Bailout of European Banking System
Posted by Larry Doyle on November 18th, 2010 6:20 AM |
What is going on in Ireland? Those forty shades of green look so inviting. How could it be that the Emerald Isle is the center of the current financial turmoil? Well it is…and it isn’t.
How is it that a variety of Irish officials can claim that they neither need nor want a bailout from the EU but a bailout is assuredly on the way? Are we witnessing a sovereign nation losing the ability to control its own affairs? There is no doubt the Irish are a proud people but are they also being overly stubborn at this juncture (believe me, I know proud and stubborn…!!)? Are the Irish failing to accept the inevitable? Hadn’t the Irish attempted a Swedish style approach in terms of aggressively recognizing losses within their financial sector?
While the answer to all of these questions is a varying degree of the affirmative (especially the proud and stubborn..!!), to truly understand what is happening in Ireland, we actually need to shift our focus to the European mainland. Really? Why’s that? Let’s navigate the tangled web and interconnectedness of the global banking system circa 2010. (more…)
Beggar Thy Neighbor
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 5th, 2010 12:17 PM |
So much has happened along our economic landscape over the last two to three years that it is hard to weigh the magnitude and depth of many of the developments. That said, the simple fact is the tectonic plates underlying our global economy have shifted massively as a result of the enormous financial earthquake of 2008. While global governments and central banks have performed varying degrees of triage to save states, nations, and regions, the movements of the plates are continuing along under the surface. To that end, what is the economic reality now bubbling above the surface given the shift in our tectonic plates below? Let’s navigate and review the reality known as Beggar Thy Neighbor, defined by our friendly Investing primer as,
An international trading policy that utilizes currency devaluations and protective barriers to alleviate a nation’s economic difficulties at the expense of other countries. While the policy may help repair an economic hardship in the nation, it will harm the country’s trading partners, worsening its economic status. (more…)
May 15, 2010: Market Week in Review
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 15th, 2010 6:12 AM |
The European Union, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (and the Fed, as well, although they don’t want to truly highlight it) provide $960 billion in backstops for the Euro-zone and what happens? The Euro ends the week lower by 3%!! Ladies and gentlemen, that is nothing more than a major “F&%@ Y#&“ on behalf of global investors to the aforementioned central banks and government entities.
Think there is tension in Euroland, and specifically between France and Germany? As The UK-based Telegraph reports, President Nicolas Sarkozy ‘Threatened to Pull France Out of Euro’:
President Nicolas Sarkozy slammed his fist on the table and threatened to pull France out of the euro at a meeting of European leaders deciding Greece’s aid package last Friday, according to Spain’s El Pais newspaper.
The last time there was this kind of tension between these countries, guess who was coming ashore at Normandy? (more…)
Is the Federal Reserve Behind the European Bailout? Audit the Fed!! [UPDATED with video]
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 10th, 2010 12:52 PM |
Is the American taxpayer ultimately bailing out the European Union? Far fetched? Don’t be so sure.
While the focus of the European bailout has been on the European Central Bank, the European Union, and the IMF, little attention is being given to swap lines which were reopened between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
The ECB has steadfastly fought the idea of breeching the principles which formed the European common currency (the Euro) in order to fashion a bailout for the EU. Did the ECB crater to political pressure by the EU? Or, did the risks of the bailout shift from the ECB to another large central bank? Such as? The Federal Reserve! (more…)
