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HomeUpdate on Cyprus: Russian Banking Ingenuity
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 26th, 2013 7:51 AM |
With the news that the larger depositors (i.e, those accounts with greater than EU100,000) in Cypriot banks will bear the brunt of the burden of the bailout and bail-in, one would think this might incite fear and outrage amongst this crowd.
These depositors are being prepped to lose upwards of 40% of their holdings. Many of these depositors are known to be Russian businessmen.
Who knows what the future holds for the island nation of Cyprus, but if we were to believe some of what we read in the Financial Times this morning, the fear and angst expected within the Russian business community seems to be met with an amazing sense of equanimity. How so? (more…)
Cyprus: An Insider’s Perspective
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 25th, 2013 11:59 AM |
News that Cyprus has negotiated a bailout of its banking system replete with massive haircuts for depositors with greater than EU100,000 and capital controls as well may have forestalled a meltdown within markets. Yet this small island nation faces a very uncertain economic future.
How might what unfolds there impact other nations in the EU if not elsewhere in the world as well? Will the bailout and associated bail-in of the Cypriot banking system ultimately be a deal which precipitates the departure of this nation from the Euro-zone?
Let’s navigate and get an insider’s perspective from Athanasios Orphanides, the former governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, who was interviewed on Bloomberg Surveillance this morning: (more…)
Simon Johnson: Enormous Risk on Economic Horizon
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 25th, 2012 7:56 AM |
What is my risk?
In the throes of evaluating any and all proposals or investment opportunities, I always want to understand where the risks lie and just how great those risks may be. From there, I try to evaluate if the projected return on invested capital is attractive relative to the risks undertaken.
What are the risks investors face? Interest rate risk, credit (i.e default) risk, volatility risk, structure risk, counterparty credit risk, prepayment risk, general market risk, liquidity risk, extension risk, transparency risk, political risk, and currency risk. Well, if that were not enough to consider, there is another very real risk lurking on our economic horizon. What might that be? (more…)
What Will Happen in Greece, Spain, and the EU?
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 22nd, 2012 5:47 AM |
I love listening to and reading the thoughts of well informed financial pros.
All eyes and ears are justifiably tuned in to developments in Greece, Spain, and throughout the EU. Will Greece leave the EU and precipitate runs on the bank in other European nations? Let’s navigate and get the insights from industry insider, Michael Platt of Bluecrest Capital Management.
Platt has received significant attention in the marketplace recently as one of the traders on the other side of JP Morgan’s losing credit bet. Having ‘harpooned’ JP Morgan’s London whale, Platt offers a wealth of valued perspectives on developments in Europe and on the situation at JP Morgan. He was interviewed recently on Bloomberg. (more…)
Greek Option: NOT Growth vs Austerity
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 8th, 2012 8:07 AM |
Growth vs austerity.
Who would not choose to increase economic growth as the path to future economic prosperity.
The election results in France and Greece over the weekend were a clear repudiation of the austerity packages negotiated earlier this year as the precursor for further German support and the European Central Bank’s LTRO (long term repo operation). That financing directed at European banks was little more than another version of the shell game that has been orchestrated by Bernanke and Geithner on this side of the pond. (more…)
Who/What is Driving European Sovereign Spreads?
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 27th, 2012 9:11 AM |
The center of our global financial crisis squarely rests upon the Euro-zone in general and a number of peripheral sovereign states specifically. The movement in spreads within this market are often vicious.
The European Central Bank has thrown the kitchen sink in the form of its 3-year LTRO (long term refinancing operation) at the massive debt problem. The LTRO aside, do you get the sense that there is a far greater force at work behind the scenes driving these markets? I do. Who and what are really driving spreads within the Euro-zone?
Let’s navigate as the Journal of International Money and Finance addresses this critically important topic in its April 2012 issue. (more…)
Central Bankers’ Favorite Games: We’re Being Played
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 21st, 2012 10:30 AM |
War. Street hockey. Hide the belt. Kick the can. Flipping cards.
The games of my youth growing up in my neighborhood section of Boston provide very fond memories. The best part of these games was the simple fact that everybody was included, the rules were clear cut, and the older kids looked out for the little guys.
In a manner of speaking, the central bankers of today are similarly engaged in a few different games. What are the games being played on both sides of the Atlantic? Kick the can and charades. Regrettably, the central bankers are not playing by the rules as we defined them.
Might Germany “Annex” Greece and “Breakthrough to a New Europe”?
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 31st, 2012 6:37 AM |
You do not need me to tell you that it can get mighty cold in Germany during the winter months.
Don’t you think many Germans would like a nice warm vacation in the Greek Isles when those winds are whipping through the cold, dark forests and industrial cities of Deutschland? Sounds nice, heh??
Think the Germans may bargain for discount vacations in Greece if not outright ownership of some prime beachfront real estate in the Greek Isles as potential compensation for bailing Greece out of its current fiscal mess?
I am speaking largely in jest…but not totally. Why so? Let’s navigate. (more…)
The EU’s Weakest Link Moves Closer to Breaking
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 4th, 2012 8:16 PM |
When I write of “the EU’s weakest link”, to which country do you think I refer?
Must be Greece, right? Maybe not.
Italy? Nope, not them either.
Portugal? Ireland? Spain? No, no, no!!
I first wrote of The Weakest Link in early 2009. I highlighted the fact that this “weakest link” moved to nationalize its pension system in late 2010 in this commentary.
Enough of the suspense. Which nation do I believe is the EU’s weakest link? (more…)
The European ‘Slow-Motion Train Wreck’
Posted by Larry Doyle on January 2nd, 2012 9:28 AM |
The lessons which went unheeded from the economic calamities and accompanying market meltdowns of the 1980s and 1990s laid the foundation for the Ponzi-style financings underwritten within our sub-prime mortgage market and the European Union of this past decade.
How have political leaders at home and abroad addressed the enormity of our collective indebtedness? They merely continue to kick the can down the road so that our global economic landscape can only be compared to a ‘slow-motion train wreck’. (more…)
