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Posts Tagged ‘Greece’

What Will Happen in Greece, Spain, and the EU?

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 22nd, 2012 5:47 AM |

I love listening to and reading the thoughts of well informed financial pros.

All eyes and ears are justifiably tuned in to developments in Greece, Spain, and throughout the EU. Will Greece leave the EU and precipitate runs on the bank in other European nations?  Let’s navigate and get the insights from industry insider, Michael Platt of Bluecrest Capital Management.

Platt has received significant attention in the marketplace recently as one of the traders on the other side of JP Morgan’s losing credit bet.  Having ‘harpooned’ JP Morgan’s London whale, Platt offers a wealth of valued perspectives on developments in Europe and on the situation at JP Morgan. He was interviewed recently on Bloomberg.   (more…)

G20 and US: Going Separate Ways Highlights Prisoner’s Dilemma

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 7th, 2010 8:25 AM |

As we continue navigating the global economic landscape, national interests are now overwhelming coordinated global interests. How so?

Unlike the coordinated message at the widely publicized 2009 G20 summit held in London, the clashing of widely divergent national views at the 2010 G20 meeting held in Busan, South Korea is hardly melodious. The implications for global markets will be enormous.

Last year, the U.S. swapped all sorts of favors for a coordinated global fiscal stimulus; this year, the U.S., represented by Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, is receiving the cold shoulder. Finance ministers from around the world are happy to go their own way in pursuit of what they believe to be their national interests. Can you blame them? (more…)

Rogoff: EU Bailout Will Not Stop Defaults

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 19th, 2010 8:57 AM |

Kenneth Rogoff

Shock and awe? The trillion dollar bailout of the debt-ridden nations within the EU was supposed to backstop the Euro and put investors at ease. As of this juncture, the politicians and central bankers are likely the only individuals left shocked and awed.

Rather than writing checks and overpaying for debt, perhaps these politicos and their central banker friends should call on those who have studied global economic and financial crises. Like who? Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff, who pointedly details that the very structure of the EU-bailout will be insufficient in forestalling defaults within the EU. (more…)

Athens Today. London Tomorrow? Washington Next Week?

Posted by Larry Doyle on May 5th, 2010 8:20 AM |

With social unrest increasing in Greece, anxieties skyrocketing across the EU, and the Euro making new 12 month lows, the question begs as to whether this crisis within the EU can be contained. Is the EU, with the support of the IMF, willing to collectively underwrite the fiscal disaster currently focused within Greece? The German citizenry is showing very little appetite to subsidize this Greek tragedy.

While the EU’s political fortitude is a critical question, ultimately the reality of the mountainous debt levels must be faced. Global government stimulus has been able to mask, if not outright disguise, these debts for a period, but the debts themselves are not going away. How will the EU address this debt?

1. Devalue. That’s a given. It’s only a question of how and when.
2. Restructure. Look for more on this.
3. Default. Do not discount this reality. (more…)

Where Will Euro-Dominoes Stop?

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 28th, 2010 8:34 AM |

While many eyes, including mine, were fixated yesterday on the Senate hearings grilling the Goldman Sachs’ executives, the fact is much more serious issues are playing out across the pond. Greece is literally on the precipice of default. Is Portugal far behind? Will Ireland be next? Will the financial train wreck in Europe be contained? Is that a pipe dream in a world interconnected via a massive credit derivatives market?

Who has a great pulse on the Euro-zone? Simon Johnson, former chief economist of the IMF, co-author with James Kwak (my BlogTalkRadio guest on April 11th) of 13 Bankers, and blogger at Baseline Scenario. Johnson sheds timely insights on moves within the European bond markets and potential for another wave of global financial crisis in writing, Wake the President:

Most days we can coast along, confident that tomorrow will be much like yesterday. On a very few days we need to look hard at the news headlines, click through to read the whole story, and then completely change a large chunk of how we thought the world worked. Today is such a day. (more…)

Greek ‘Drama’ Only in First Act, or ‘Beware of Greeks Bearing Gifts’

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 6th, 2010 1:42 PM |

Prior reports that Greece’s financial problems are now in the rear view mirror are exceedingly premature.

As we navigate ‘across the pond,’ we learn that the Financial Times’ Wolfgang Munchau believes Greece Is Going to Default but Not This Year:

Greece will not only have to make an extremely large public sector deficit reduction effort but it will also have to do this under a condition of disinflation, and possibly deflation, which would push its nominal growth rate to negative levels during the adjustment period. That, in turn, would jeopardise the debt reduction programme of both the public and private sectors. Under those circumstances, there is no way that Greece could ever stabilise its debt-to-gross domestic product ratio, no matter how hard the government of George Papandreou tries.

To get out of this mess, one of five things will have to happen. (more…)

To Wall Street, Washington, and World: “Fool Me Once…

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 11th, 2010 2:08 PM |

…shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me!!!

There are a handful of financial journalists who pull no punches in telling the absolute truth and in providing real transparency. Bloomberg’s Jonathan Weil holds a special spot in the Sense on Cents Hall of Fame for his determination in calling people and institutions on the carpet. From Wall Street to Washington to around the global financial landscape, Weil leaves no stone unturned in promoting integrity. His commentary today is superb. Please share it with friends. Weil writes, Greece Lifts a Page From Citigroup’s Playbook:

Is it too much to ask for the world’s titans of government and finance to speak credibly when they open their mouths? (more…)

Greek Financial Crisis>Political Crisis>Social Crisis

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 25th, 2010 8:35 AM |

I would equate the forces at work underlying our global economy akin to shifts in the earth’s tectonic plates. There is no doubt that we experienced a sizable financial earthquake in 2008. The question now begs whether that seismic shock was the culmination of events or merely the precursor for greater political and social shocks over the next period of years.

We see evidence of further tectonic slippage and resulting instability out of the Euro-zone overnight as rating agencies are threatening to downgrade Greece’s sovereign credit. (more…)

Goldman’s Gerald Corrigan: Best Defense is Good Offense

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 23rd, 2010 11:15 AM |

$300 million is a lot of money.

Was it enough for the preeminent firm on Wall Street, Goldman Sachs, to risk its reputation? Apparently it was because that is the reported figure Goldman earned from transactions it structured and executed with the nation of Greece to help hide that nation’s fiscal woes. I do not discount that Goldman took risk in these transactions, but $300 million is a lot of money.

Believe me, every firm on Wall Street would sell its soul for a lot less than that. Goldman Sachs was not the only firm on Wall Street to enter into derivative transactions with Greece or other nations to cover declining fiscal positions. Goldman is merely the highest profile firm.

What does a firm like Goldman do now that it is being besieged by regulators, central bankers, and national leaders, primarily Angela Merkel of Germany, for structuring and executing these transactions?  (more…)

Greece Facing “Titanic” Problem

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 16th, 2010 10:38 AM |

April 15, 1912. Early in the morning of this fateful day, the unsinkable Titanic went below the waters of the icy Atlantic and sank to its eventual berth on the ocean floor.

In the process of hitting the iceberg that dealt the Titanic its fateful blow, the air of invincibility surrounding this greatest of ships became an air of inevitability.

With all due respect to those who perished that cold night in those icy waters, are we witnessing a similar dynamic playing out on our global economic landscape for the once proud nation of Greece?

Were derivative transactions executed on behalf of Greece by Goldman Sachs mere band-aids covering massive holes in the hull of this once proud nation? No doubt. (more…)

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