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HomeThe European Shell Game
Posted by Larry Doyle on December 13th, 2011 11:43 AM |
I recently received the following message from a regular reader. Given the fact that every other piece of financial news seems to address developments in Europe, I would like to share his message and my response.
Hi Larry –
Hope you are doing well. I have read several articles in the last few days on this topic – rehypothecation – and how this is what really brought down MF Global, and also in a way what brought down AIG.
I’m still not completely understanding this. My primary question right now that I’d love to hear your opinion on is this – Was this the primary reason why David Cameron refused on Friday for Great Britain to agree to the EU treaty?
The reason I ask that is because the only way that MF Global could utilize rehypothecation is because in the UK, it is legal and there is no limit whatsoever on the amount that can be rehypothecated there (as opposed to in the U.S. where there are strict rules). (more…)
An Irish Chink in the Euro’s Armor?
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 29th, 2011 6:03 AM |
In the midst of my recent travels around Ireland I was asked the following question by an Irish businessman. “Larry, when investors purchase senior bonds issued by banks, don’t they take risk?” I informed this friendly chap that based on how capitalism is supposed to work, that yes, these senior bondholders just like every other investor supposedly take risk when making an investment of this type.
My new friend then inquired as to how and why in Ireland’s recent negotiations with the EU’s hierarchy that the senior bondholders of Irish banks were not compelled to take a haircut. Knowing that we did not have enough time to fully pursue all of the angles to this topic, I gained an up close and personal appreciation for the disgust that many Irish citizens have for the recent ‘supposed support’ Ireland received by the EU and the European Central Bank. (more…)
What’s ‘UP’ with the Euro?
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 20th, 2010 9:41 AM |
The Euro has had a significant bounce over the last 6 weeks. After bottoming out slightly below 1.20/U.S. dollar in early June, the Euro has bounced back close to 1.30 versus the greenback. Let’s navigate the circuitous path of this most important currency and assess where it may be headed from here. I am most pleased to highlight commentary on this critically sensitive topic, written specifically for Sense on Cents by Forextraders.com:
The Current State of the Euro: Can It Head Higher Versus The Dollar?
The months of June and July have seen a rapid and extreme appreciation of the Euro against the U.S. Dollar. In order to understand our current state of the Euro and where we may be headed, it is imperative that one have a basic understanding of the Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe. (more…)
Rogoff: EU Bailout Will Not Stop Defaults
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 19th, 2010 8:57 AM |
Kenneth Rogoff
Shock and awe? The trillion dollar bailout of the debt-ridden nations within the EU was supposed to backstop the Euro and put investors at ease. As of this juncture, the politicians and central bankers are likely the only individuals left shocked and awed.
Rather than writing checks and overpaying for debt, perhaps these politicos and their central banker friends should call on those who have studied global economic and financial crises. Like who? Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff, who pointedly details that the very structure of the EU-bailout will be insufficient in forestalling defaults within the EU. (more…)
The Euro Is Retreating like Napoleon from Moscow
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 11th, 2010 12:28 PM |
If those involved in the European bailout thought the trillion dollar package would quickly support the Euro and, in turn, the economies of the EU, well guess what? After a quick, short covering rally for the Euro yesterday, the common currency for the EU has turned tail and is retreating faster than Napoleon from Moscow.
The Wall Street Journal addresses the Euro’s retreat in writing, Euro Falls as Aid-Plan Euphoria Fades:
Unnerved by the euro zone’s giant bailout mechanism and the prospect of patchwork politics in the U.K., investors herded back into the safety of the dollar and yen Tuesday, sending the euro and the pound lower. (more…)
Euro Crisis Merely Delayed, Not Averted
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 10th, 2010 8:39 AM |
They blinked.
The European Union and European Central Bank stole a play from the wizards in Washington to avert an immediate currency crisis in the EU and the potential ripple effect around the world. Did they do the right thing? For me, the question of addressing the fiscal crisis within the EU is not one of right or wrong; rather, when the crisis comes, how large will it be and how long will it last?
The trillion dollar package provided by the European Central Bank, the European Union itself, and the IMF is a combination of loan guarantees and quantitative easing. Shock and awe and punish those who would dare sell the Euro short, right? Clearly, the massive injection of capital will squeeze those who have shorted the Euro, but what about the long haul?
The EU is subverting the very tenets upon which the union was founded. Those tenets precluded this type of financial bailout. (more…)
Why Is the Euro Plummeting?
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 25th, 2010 9:38 AM |
The Euro is plummeting in value because of the ongoing fiscal problems in Greece and the recent downgrade of Portugal’s sovereign credit, correct? Well, these are the most recent developments, but the problems go much deeper than that.
Although the very nature of short term mentality in a heavily dominated short term trading environment would point to these problems within Greece and Portugal as the primary reasons for the problems with the Euro, let’s work a little harder and navigate a little deeper.
First off, we need to accept the premise that we are experiencing structural changes in the context of a secular market. Our friends in Washington and on Wall Street (as well as other global financial centers) work very hard to present our current economy and market as possessing merely cyclical risk. Don’t buy it. (more…)
Hedge Fund Collusion to Pound Euro?
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 3rd, 2010 12:35 PM |
Meeting industry friends and colleagues for dinner, drinks, and market talk is standard fare. In fact, I would say it is good business as it is important to develop relationships within the industry.
That said, the development of these professional relationships and the interaction amongst the professionals should never come at the expense of professional ethics and integrity. I did witness more than a handful of times individuals from different shops on both the buy-side and the sell-side of the industry push the envelope very close and sometimes over that ethical line.
Not always, but very often, the ethical shortcomings involved hedge funds. Why? The revenue model for hedge funds (typically 2% asset management fee and 20% of profits derived) serves as a huge incentive for traders at hedge funds to gain an edge and act upon it as much as possible. The fact that the hedge fund traders and managers have a direct stake and an accompanying vested interest in the profits fuels this crowd like nothing else. (more…)
China, Greece, and Germany Rattle Overnight Markets
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 12th, 2010 7:11 AM |
No rest for the weary.
If you thought yesterday’s nice 1% upward move in our equity markets was a precursor for calmer and stronger markets ahead, think again.
Overnight developments in China, Greece, and Germany are clear signs that our economic landscape remains challenging and our markets remain fragile. Let’s navigate:
1. Looking eastward, China’s central bank raised reserve requirements (interest rates) by 50 basis points (.50%). Why? (more…)
Will the EU ‘Greece the Wheels?’
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 9th, 2010 11:03 AM |
The recent market volatility reflects the fact that our overall economic and market foundations are anything but secure. In fact, dare I say the market over the last few weeks resembles a rollercoaster. While our market rollercoaster, with Uncle Sam’s assistance, climbed the wall of worry in 2009, so far in 2010 we are cascading along and taking some hard turns at full speed. Keep those seats belt fastened.
What has precipitated our 1% upward move this morning? News from the Euro-zone that the EU will backstop Greece’s budget deficit or, if I could stick with our theme, the EU will “greece the wheels” of our rollercoaster. (more…)
