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Posts Tagged ‘fiscal deficit in Greece’

Greek ‘Drama’ Only in First Act, or ‘Beware of Greeks Bearing Gifts’

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 6th, 2010 1:42 PM |

Prior reports that Greece’s financial problems are now in the rear view mirror are exceedingly premature.

As we navigate ‘across the pond,’ we learn that the Financial Times’ Wolfgang Munchau believes Greece Is Going to Default but Not This Year:

Greece will not only have to make an extremely large public sector deficit reduction effort but it will also have to do this under a condition of disinflation, and possibly deflation, which would push its nominal growth rate to negative levels during the adjustment period. That, in turn, would jeopardise the debt reduction programme of both the public and private sectors. Under those circumstances, there is no way that Greece could ever stabilise its debt-to-gross domestic product ratio, no matter how hard the government of George Papandreou tries.

To get out of this mess, one of five things will have to happen. (more…)

Will the EU ‘Greece the Wheels?’

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 9th, 2010 11:03 AM |

The recent market volatility reflects the fact that our overall economic and market foundations are anything but secure. In fact, dare I say the market over the last few weeks resembles a rollercoaster. While our market rollercoaster, with Uncle Sam’s assistance, climbed the wall of worry in 2009, so far in 2010 we are cascading along and taking some hard turns at full speed. Keep those seats belt fastened.

What has precipitated our 1% upward move this morning? News from the Euro-zone that the EU will backstop Greece’s budget deficit or, if I could stick with our theme, the EU will “greece the wheels” of our rollercoaster. (more…)

When Will Euro-PIGS Fly?

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 5th, 2010 10:56 AM |

Wall Street has more than bulls and bears. Trading desk banter often refers to the presence of ‘pigs’ in the market. Years removed, I can still hear traders saying, “this market’s a pig,” “this bond’s a pig,” and “that account is a pig.” Well, with my morning coffee I saw a new utilization of this famed reference. I chuckled but also realized the seriousness of the new pig reference in regard to the increasingly dire fiscal situation in the European Union.

What are the PIGS across the pond? Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain.

The Wall Street Journal highlights the disastrous fiscal situation in these countries in writing, Sovereign Risk Meets Sovereign Reality:

After months of shrugging off debt problems in Dubai, Greece and other smaller economies, markets yesterday seemed suddenly aware of the risks of sovereign default. (more…)






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