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HomeDavid Galland’s Crystal Ball Post QE2
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 12th, 2011 8:26 AM |
What does the future hold?
I believe the future of our nation, the world, and markets at large have NEVER been faced with the level of uncertainty as they currently face. Debt ceiling? Housing? Unemployment? Inflation? The health of our banking system? Integrity of our government reports? International civil strife? There is no rest for the weary.
Ben Bernanke and his minions at the Federal Reserve have masked the underlying destructive impact of the debts strangling our economy and the subsequent impact on our economy via the Fed’s quantitative easing programs. With QE2 scheduled to end in June, then what?
Our Sense on Cents Economic All-Star John Mauldin highlights an interview that David Galland, Casey Research partner and managing editor of The Casey Report, gave to the International Speculator, in which he provides immediate and long term projections resulting from the end of QE2. This interview is lengthy but riveting. For those interested in the markets, our economy, and our future, it is a MUST READ!! (more…)
Why Is the Euro Plummeting?
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 25th, 2010 9:38 AM |
The Euro is plummeting in value because of the ongoing fiscal problems in Greece and the recent downgrade of Portugal’s sovereign credit, correct? Well, these are the most recent developments, but the problems go much deeper than that.
Although the very nature of short term mentality in a heavily dominated short term trading environment would point to these problems within Greece and Portugal as the primary reasons for the problems with the Euro, let’s work a little harder and navigate a little deeper.
First off, we need to accept the premise that we are experiencing structural changes in the context of a secular market. Our friends in Washington and on Wall Street (as well as other global financial centers) work very hard to present our current economy and market as possessing merely cyclical risk. Don’t buy it. (more…)
A Sunday Morning Review
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 12th, 2009 7:36 AM |
I always enjoy reading the thoughts and opinions of John Mauldin, an economic All-Star here at Sense on Cents. Mauldin himself provides insightful perspectives, but he has a number of relationships who weigh in with probing analysis from around the globe.
Mauldin’s recent ‘Outside the Box’ article, “A Tale of Two Depressions,” provides a wealth of information and analysis on the global economy. I personally found this piece beneficial in juxtaposition to yesterday’s Recommended Weekend Reading, “Aftermath of Financial Crises” by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff.
I feel strongly that we need to focus on the current not the waves, the forest not the trees. On that note, I hope you find this commentary and all other work here at Sense on Cents to be helpful as you navigate the economic landscape!
Please join me this evening at 8PM to address these topics and others on my Sunday night radio show, NoQuarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle.
LD
A New Bull or a Bear Market Rally?
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 17th, 2009 9:02 AM |
Are we entering the initial stages of a bull market or experiencing a bear market rally? Does our economy have the requisite liquidity to finance the deficit or is the liquidity trapped by embedded losses in the banking sector? Will tax revenues be sufficient to address municipal obligations? Ultimately, what does it all mean for our economy and the global economy.
Our Economic All-Star John Mauldin and his colleague Niels Jensen of Absolute Return address these critical questions in an easy to understand fashion in The $33,000,000,000,000 Question.
As we enter the ‘Brave New World’ economy, I believe it is critically important we revise our mental approach to the economy and markets. I share the concerns voiced in this piece. If nothing else, Jensen’s detailed analysis provides insights into the hurdles we face as we try to move forward. I hope it helps you navigate your personal economic landscape.
LD
Navigating Sense on Cents
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 11th, 2009 7:29 AM |
As many people travel this weekend to be with friends and family, I would like to take an opportunity to navigate the highways and byways of links and material connected to Sense on Cents.
I hope this post will open more eyes and ears to wider avenues of information as we collectively try to make sense of the economy, markets, and world of global finance.
If I could beg your indulgence, if any of these links do not interest you but you feel they may help others, please pass them along. I thank you in advance.
With no further adieu, let’s travel around Sense on Cents . . .
Career Planning: I have always taken pleasure in providing career guidance. I provide a wealth of Must Read articles from a variety of sources along with a Workshop for developing a game plan.
Market Data: this page connects to real time market data from the Wall Street Journal. Every sector of the market is a mere point and click away. Stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, economic data, international markets, historical graphs, and more…
Newsworthy: some stories have made headlines, while others are off the beaten path. These stories come from your local papers and from posts around the world. I welcome sharing them with you.
No Quarter Radio: “Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle” is my weekly Sunday evening radio program. I share insights and perspectives on the markets and economy while also hosting outstanding professionals from all corners of finance as my guests. All shows are archived and available as podcasts on iTunes. I also provide an audio player right here on Sense on Cents immediately after the completion of each show so that you can listen to a playback of the show right from this site.
The Reading Room is filled with a variety of books (pleasure, finance, inspirational, educational) that I have enjoyed and found impactful.
For those working their way up the learning curve (aren’t we all?), I have
Primers on the following topics:
Investing: anything you could ever possibly want defined or simplified.
Mortgage Market and Mortgage Finance
Financial Aid
Insurance
Debt Management
I also closely track a number of professional money managers, economists, and analysts. This collection of pro’s pros are my Economic All-Stars and include:
Laszlo Birinyi: outstanding equity manager and Wall Street veteran
Nouriel Roubini: highly acclaimed NYU economist
Jeff Gundlach: the highly acclaimed Chief Investment Officer of Trust Company of the West
Bob Rodriguez: along with his First Pacific Advisors colleague Tom Atteberry, named Morningstar’s 2008 Fixed Income Managers of the Year
Bill Gross: the highly acclaimed bond manager at Pacific Investment Management Company
Greg Mankiw: widely respected Harvard Professor of Economics
John Mauldin: a true favorite of mine, this market analyst is amazingly well connected
Sheila Bair: the chair of the FDIC and, in my opinion, the preeminent regulator in the U.S. government today.
Carmen Reinhart: Professor of Economics at the University of Maryland
Thought Leaders: 22 of the finest economic minds in the world today connected to Project Syndicate, an international association of 415 newspapers in 150 countries !!
If you are reading this post, I hope this trip has opened new avenues of interest for you. As the moderator, I actively engage readers, so please do not hesitate to ask questions and leave comments, or – as some may say – sign the Guest Book!! Please share the site with friends, family, and colleagues.
Ultimately, I hope you enjoy coming to Sense on Cents as much as I do!
Have a blessed holiday ~
LD
Games of Chance: TALF, PPIP, TARP, FDIC, FASB
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 7th, 2009 2:40 PM |
In thinking about the economy, markets, and our banking system, my memory brings me back to my early days in New York. While working my way along 8th Avenue back to my apartment in Hell’s Kitchen, I would happen upon numerous versions of the classic NYC “hustle.” The shell game (also 3 card monte) was rampant in NYC in the ’80s. Mayor Giuliani cleared out this game, along with a host of other street scenes. For those not familiar with this game, there was a constant need for new players with new money to keep the game alive.
Why do these games remind me of our current banking system? The similarities are scary. Let’s access the most recent piece from John Mauldin’s site to “view the games.”
Mauldin’s guest, John Hussman, comments on these various “games” (TALF, PPIP, TARP, FDIC, FASB), in which taxpayers bear the brunt of the risk in the government’s engagement with financial institutions. Hussman writes of the PPIP:
this is a recipe for the insolvency of the FDIC and an attempt to bail out bank bondholders using funds that have not even been allocated by Congress. The whole plan is a bureaucratic abuse of the FDIC’s balance sheet, which exists to protect ordinary depositors, not bank bondholders.
Very Entertaining
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 13th, 2009 10:35 AM |
If I go to a comedian, I look to be entertained. I do not look for piercing insights on global issues. Alternately, when I want cogent financial analysis I don’t go to an entertainer. The following photo and captions from the New York Post are self-explanatory:
If you want to review a topic which is less entertaining, but much more critically important in navigating the economic landscape, let’s take a quick look at how the Chinese export engine is humming. Uh-oh!! Chinese exports in February dropped almost 26% from a year earlier. That decline displays an acceleration in the 17% drop experienced in January. Thank you John Mauldin, one of our Economic All-Stars (left sidebar), for providing us this less than entertaining but extremely insightful perspective, China: Exports Drop.
LD
