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Posts Tagged ‘Case-Shiller Index’

Why Might The Fed’s Party Be Over?

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 20th, 2011 8:07 AM |

Over the last few years I have highlighted the fact that the deflationary impact of declining wages and home values gave cover to the Federal Reserve for maintaining an excessively easy monetary policy and pumping up asset prices via quantitative easing. That party would now seem to be over. Why?

There is no doubt that Fed chair Bernanke’s easy money has played an integral role in the inflation we are experiencing at the pump, in the supermarket, and across a number of other commodities.

As we continue to navigate the U.S. economic landscape circa 2011 and beyond, the ongoing decline in home values in many regions of our nation now would seem to be setting the table for an inflationary spike in housing costs. How so? What is going on here?  (more…)

Housing Index Revisited

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 18th, 2009 1:11 PM |

A week or so ago, I introduced two indexes that track the outlook for housing in our country. The S&P/Case-Shiller Index is released on a monthly basis. The ABX is an index that can be traded daily by institutional money managers and thus allows them to reflect their opinions on the outlook for housing. The ABX is a very broadly defined index that tracks housing by the underlying year of origination of the mortgage.

Yesterday, the monthly housing starts number surprisingly jumped 22%. The government program TALF (Term Asset-Backed Lending Facility) to restart the consumer finance markets is set to launch next week.  Hopefully that program will bring added liquidity to our consumer finance markets and support housing as well. The mortgage modification program to support housing is underway. (more…)

Things You May Have Missed

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 20th, 2009 5:20 PM |

While there is tremendous volatility in the markets and commensurate anxiety as a result, there were some major stories and developments that got less play but deserved more.

Allow me to expound. Robert Shiller, a highly distinguished Economics Professor at Yale Univeristy and co-designer of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index spoke this morning on Bloomberg News. Shiller is the preeminent expert on trends and developments in housing.   He made the following assessments:

1. Glad to see that Obama is making an effort to support housing but has serious concerns about the effort.

2. $75 billion allocated for loan modification is not nearly enough to make a truly meaningful impact. (remember there is another $200 billion allocated for Freddie and Fannie to refinance mortgages).

3. No plan or proposal for those holding Jumbo mortgages leaves a large part of the market without benefits. Those homes will likely hang over the market.
(more…)






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