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Posts Tagged ‘underemployment’

Duke/CFO Survey: Good News and Bad News

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 4th, 2010 10:01 AM |

What can we learn from those who sign the checks at over a thousand companies around our country? Let’s review a synopsis of a recently released Duke University CFO Survey. This analysis, On the Mend, is presented by CFO Magazine:

At last, some good news. For the first time in more than a year, finance chiefs expect double-digit growth in earnings and significant growth in capital spending over the next 12 months, according to the Duke University/CFOMagazine Global Business Outlook Survey for the first quarter of 2010. Finance chiefs are also loosening the reins on technology spending, research and development spending, and marketing and advertising spending.

The welcome news doesn’t come without a few troubling reservations, however. (more…)

John Williams Sees Unemployment at 22%

Posted by Larry Doyle on January 8th, 2010 3:15 PM |

What is the real rate of unemployment?

The traditional rate of unemployment, commonly regarded as the U-3, is currently 10%.

Very often, though, we hear reference to the underemployment rate, that is the U-6 rate. The U-6 rate currently sits at 17.3%. This measure encompasses those individuals who desire more hours, are working below their skill set, or are discouraged and have exited the labor pool.

Thanks to SG, I was introduced today to a noted economist who has been tracking an even more encompassing measure of unemployment. Who is this individual? John Williams who operates Shadow Government Statistics.

Walter J. “John” Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth’s Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies.

Williams has developed an even more comprehensive measure of unemployment, known as the SGS Alternate. What does this include? (more…)

The China Syndrome 2009

Posted by Larry Doyle on November 17th, 2009 11:53 AM |

I am typically reluctant to merely link to articles which I find extremely compelling and newsworthy. I thoroughly enjoy referencing other’s works while adding my own thoughts and perspectives. That said, every once in a while an article comes along which truly deserves to be highlighted in its entirety for its depth of detail and global perspective. I find it interesting that the article I find so compelling is produced not here in the United States, but in the United Kingdom. I thank KD for bringing it to my attention.

From the Telegraph.co.uk, China Has Now Become the Biggest Risk to the World Economy:

China has now become the biggest risk to the world economy

President Obama said before going to China this week that Asia can no longer live by shipping goods to Americans already in debt to their ears Photo: AP

“The inherent problems of the international economic system have not been fully addressed,” said China’s president Hu Jintao. Indeed not. China is still exporting overcapacity to the rest of us on a grand scale, with deflationary consequences.

While some fret about liquidity-driven inflation, Justin Lin, World Bank chief economist, said the greater danger is that record levels of idle plant almost everywhere will feed a downward spiral of job cuts and corporate busts. “I’m more worried about deflation,” he said. (more…)

Reich to Obama – Re: Geithner

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 16th, 2009 8:44 AM |

Cross Posted from No Quarter!! Thanks!
Major h/t Andy!!

Since this pretty much speaks for itself, I’m just going to step out of the way.

From Robert Reich’s Blog:

(Robert Reich was the nation’s 22nd Secretary of Labor and is a professor at the University of California at Berkeley. His latest book is “Supercapitalism.” This is his personal journal.)

FRIDAY, MARCH 13, 2009
Paul Volcker to Barack Obama

Former Fed Chair Paul Volcker is briefing President Obama today on how well the stimulus package is doing. I have no inside knowledge of what he’s saying, but if I were Volcker (and I’m not — he’s almost two feet taller than I am), I’d say the following:

Mr. President, it’s way too early to know exactly what the stimulus is doing because the money is barely out the door, but I’ve got to tell you I’m worried as hell. Unemployment is at 8 percent, and underemployment is over 14 percent of the workforce. The economy is shrinking much faster than it was when you put the stimulus together. It will be more than a trillion dollars short of its full capacity this year, and I have every reason to believe the same next. State governments alone are hundreds of billions in the hole, creating a huge drag. So your $787 billion over two years, only two-thirds of which is direct spending, isn’t going to get us nearly far enough. I’d strongly recommend you make ready a second stimulus, about the same size, and get it enacted as soon as possible, with the proviso that it will be implemented if and when unemplyment hits 8.5 percent or underemployment reaches 15 percent.

Oh, and by the way, Mr. President. You may not want to hear this, but your Treasury Secretary is making things worse. His dithering on what to do about Wall Street, and his incapacity to speak clearly to the Street and to the public about what needs to be done, is spooking everyone. Why doesn’t he just put the irrevocably insolvent banks into receivership under the FDIC, sell off their assets, protect depositors, and reimburse taxpayers with whatever remains? Let the rest of the banks fend for themselves — working out their bad loans with their creditors. As to AIG, well, that’s a complete basketcase. Put it out of its suffering. Take it over, sell its assets, protect policy holders (you’ll need to create a big co-insurance plan with every other major insurer in the world), then get out.

Want a cigar?

I don’t smoke, but a cigar and a health shot of tequila is sounding good about now. And it couldn’t make the sick feeling in the pit of my stomach any worse.






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