Posted by Larry Doyle on March 9th, 2009 3:35 PM |
A great American and loyal reader (thanks FL) shared a report recently produced by not-for-profits Essential Information and The Consumer Education Foundation. This report, Sold Out: How Wall Street and Washington Betrayed America, has gotten little to no attention in the general media. What a shame. I find of particular interest the fact that a number of the currently discussed regulatory changes are directly addressing the points highlighted in this report. I personally view these proposed regulatory changes as substantiating this report and adding credibility to its effort. For the naysayers in the audience, I would ask you to review the report and reconsider your assessment.
I was struck a month ago by the incriminating statements put forth by Senator Chuck Hagel and CIA head Leon Panetta, which I highlighted on February 16th in Legalized Bribery. Those statements bluntly indict our massive system of lobbying, political fundraising, and the quality of those running for elected office! In light of that article, I am more and more convinced that our elected officials have turned their offices into massive for profit machines at the expense of our public well being.
I commend the authors of this report, Roger Weissman and James Donahue, for taking the time and making the extensive effort to expose the truth. The full report, 231 pages in length, spares no detail. In studying it, I found the information and analysis riveting. Let me try to summarize it for you. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 9th, 2009 10:38 AM |
All indications point to a plea deal this week with Bernie Madoff. In my opinion, Bernie Madoff seems to have been treated with kid gloves to this point. House arrest for a purported crime of this magnitude defies logic. One can only assume the government
Bernie Madoff
utilized this approach, even after Bernie shipped jewels and assets overseas, as they were trying to extract as much information as possible. This week’s news will give the public the first hint as to what kind of information the government has extracted.
My father was an assistant district attorney in Suffolk County, MA and has often made the point that white collar crime never received the degree of justice it deserved. The crime that Bernie and team propagated not only directly impacted his investors but also massively impacted the public at large. How is that? Bernie’s Ponzi scheme, perpetrated over such an extended period of time, has caused a crisis of confidence in our markets, our regulatory system, and ultimately our country.
It defies logic that this Ponzi scheme was not executed without enormous cooperation and involvement by a number of individuals both inside and outside the Madoff organization. There is no doubt in my mind that many of those individuals have information, that if revealed, can and will be extremely embarrassing for some high profile people within our regulatory bodies and our government. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 8th, 2009 7:22 AM |
I had a conversation last week with a recent college graduate working in the finance industry. He was recently laid off. Understandably, he was somewhat miffed and unsettled. I was happy to talk to him. My first statement to him was that he has approximately another 40 work years in front of him. Given the length of time and the dramatic changes ongoing in our economic landscape, I offered that this was actually an interesting time to be in the job market because change creates opportunity. His initial deadpan response was not unexpected and actually hoped for. I did not want to be merely a shoulder for him to lean on and commiserate. I advised him that his next job would not necessarily find him, he must find it. In that spirit, I enthusiastically apprised him to actively engage people in dialogue and conversations.
I told him to not even look for interviews but first and foremost to gather information. Utilizing a variety of networks (friends, family, college alums, neighbors, cold calls), I strongly impressed upon him that he needed to remain engaged. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 7th, 2009 7:30 PM |
There is no substitute for an indomitable entrepreneurial spirit. We all know these are challenging times, but the American spirit will carry the day. I found this video clip to be particularly inspiring. I hope you do, too:
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 7th, 2009 10:52 AM |
In the midst of any storm, one wonders what the landscape may look like when the dust settles. Well, our current economic tsunami is no mere rainy day at the beach. What will the landscape look like on the other side? Let’s ponder some of the questions we need to ask as we navigate forward:
1. Which companies will no longer exist as currently formulated?
2. Will companies become smaller, more simplified, with less financial engineering?
3. How will regulation of the financial industry look? Could it have a global basis? Will national interests prevail over global demands?
4. Where will the DJIA be on March 7, 2010? March 7, 2014?
5. What will the unemployment rate be on those dates?
6. What will Obama’s approval ratings look like on that first date? Which Obama program will be deemed successful? (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 6th, 2009 5:36 PM |
In reading a fair amount of market analysis and listening to a number of policy wonks, it strikes me that more and more people feel the Obama administration is neither focused nor properly staffed. In Treasury, Secretary Geithner is largely working on his own!! What happens in situations like that? Not surprisingly, Obama himself and his secretaries are not fully informed and say and do things haphazardly.
For those who are wondering what I am doing writing about politics while I navigate the economic landscape, well, risk comes in many shapes and sizes. The risk of an unfocused and thinly staffed administration is a huge risk. Let’s review one specific company that was literally blindsided by the administration.
The Student Loan Marketing Association was the largest provider of student loans in the country. This company, like every consumer finance company, has been very negatively effected by the shutdown of the asset-backed securitization market. That said, what the Obama administration’s budget proposal did to current SLMA shareholders and bondholders is nothing short of devastating. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 6th, 2009 9:21 AM |
The highly anticipated monthly unemployment report was just released. On the surface, the numbers may appear to be in line with expectations, but looking deeper into the numbers the report is actually worse than expected. Let’s dive into the numbers and comment on what they mean for our economy and markets.
The Unemployment Rate jumped from 7.6% to 8.1%. The rate was expected to move to 7.9%. The 8.1% rate is a 25 year high.
Non-farm Payrolls lost 651k jobs against an expectation of a loss of 650k jobs. In line with expectations, right? Well, one needs to look at the revisions to the prior two months to get the full picture. Non-farm payroll revisions from the prior two months show a further loss of 161k jobs over and above initial reports. That’s ugly!! Total jobs lost since December 2007, when the recession officially began, are 4.4 million!! More than half of those jobs have been lost in the last 4 months.
Average hourly earnings only rose .2. This number is not exactly robust and will further pressure consumers who are already cash constrained. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 5th, 2009 6:37 PM |
Some of my favorite movies are The Sting, Rocky, and Papillon. I could watch those films a few times a year and appreciate the plot, character development, and climax.
In that same vein, for newer readers here at Sense on Cents, I want to highlight a piece I wrote on November 12, 2008. I believe this piece is as clear cut an historical explanation as I have seen to highlight the background of the debacle on Wall Street which precipitated this economic disaster. I also find it interesting as to my comments about potential market reaction to an aggressive tax/spend program under President Obama and a Democratic Congress.
I hope you find this article informative and enlightening: (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 5th, 2009 3:49 PM |
In the midst of this economic turmoil in which many people are increasingly cash constrained, a cottage industry has developed which preys on the most vulnerable in our society. This industry facilitates short term loans in exchange for the borrower’s paycheck or tax refund.
The companies that participate in this lending should not only be outed but they should also be prosecuted for this activity.
Bloomberg writes how More Americans Turn to Tax Refund Loans to Pay Monthly Bills. With implied rates of interest on these loans from 50% to 500%, this is loan sharking at its worst!! Where are the Better Business Bureau and Attorney Generals when you really need them? (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 5th, 2009 9:45 AM |
In very short order, the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) has seen its reserves plummet from $50 billion to $18.9 billion at the end of 2008. At that pace and with the expectation of more bank failures, could this bedrock of our national banking system go broke? Well, FDIC’s Bair Says Insurance Fund Could Be Insolvent This Year. Is Sheila Bair unnecessarily sounding warning signals? Am I running to the bank to withdraw my money? No and no.
Sheila Bair is proactively managing expectations for all concerned, those being politicians, regulators, bankers, and consumers. In fact, if she did not highlight the current state of the FDIC reserve fund and expectations for future declines, she would not be fulfilling her obligations. (more…)
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In the midst of any storm, one wonders what the landscape may look like when the dust settles. Well, our current economic tsunami is no mere rainy day at the beach. What will the landscape look like on the other side? Let’s ponder some of the questions we need to ask as we navigate forward:
The highly anticipated monthly unemployment report was just released. On the surface, the numbers may appear to be in line with expectations, but looking deeper into the numbers the report is actually worse than expected. Let’s dive into the numbers and comment on what they mean for our economy and markets.
