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Posts Tagged ‘capital’

Bill Gross Making Sense on Cents

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 14th, 2009 12:56 PM |

Looking beyond the liquidity provided by the Treasury and Federal Reserve to refloat our equity markets, what will be the drivers of our economy and markets going forward? While Uncle Sam may think he can leave rates at 0-.25% for an extended period, at some point even ‘extended’ runs out. Will the Uncle Sam economy have adapted and implemented the structural changes necessary to move on to a new phase of growth and prosperity?

I am very concerned and reiterate that our markets are masking significant embedded issues in our economy and overall fiscal health.

As much as I found Pimco to be challenging when trading with them, and question their integrity in handling their outstanding Auction-Rate Securities issuance, I respect their views on the markets and economy. In fact, I think Bill Gross and Mohamed El-Erian consistently provide a lot of “sense on cents.”  What does Mr. Gross have to say about our economic landscape lately? He writes:

What is critical to recognize is that both California and the U.S., as well as numerous global lookalikes such as the U.K., Spain, and Eastern European invalids, are in a poor position to compete in a global economy where capitalism is morphing from its decades-long emphasis on finance and levered risk taking to a more conservative, regulated, production-oriented system advantaged by countries focusing on thrift and deferred gratification. The term “capitalism” itself speaks to “capital” – the accumulation of it and the eventual efficient employment of it – for growth in profits and real wages alike.

Regrettably, more and more capital here at home is being directed toward the servicing of our massive deficit. Additionally, taxes will surely increase to do the same. Over and above those two definites, I believe strongly  that capital will increasingly look for opportunities outside our nation given the pressure on our greenback.

Gross touches upon an issue which I strongly believe is a MASSIVE drag on our current economy and our future well being, that is our  secondary schools which rank 18th overall in the developed world. Gross writes:

What California once had and is losing rapidly is its “capital”: unquestionably in its ongoing double-digit billion dollar deficits, but also in its crown jewel educational system that led to Silicon Valley miracles such as Hewlett Packard, Apple, Google, and countless other new age innovators. In addition, its human capital is beginning to exit as more people move out of the state than in. While the United States as a whole has yet to suffer that emigration indignity, the same cannot be said for foreign-born and U.S.-educated scientists and engineers who now choose to return to their homelands to seek opportunity. Lady Liberty’s extended hand offering sanctuary to other nations’ “tired, poor and huddled masses” may be limited to just that. The invigorated wind up elsewhere.

Do the powers that be in Washington and in the state houses possess the necessary discipline to right our ship and set sail on smoother seas? If so, they will have to display a set of values and practices which are entirely inconsistent with how our government operates. While I remain bullish on those who want to educate themselves, practice discipline, and save for better days, I am bearish on people who think Washington or other entities can provide those necessary values. Gross is also cautious in concluding:

Now that our financial system has been stabilized, one wonders whether California’s “Governator” and indeed the Obama Administration has the capital, the vision, and indeed the discipline of its citizenry to turn things around. Our future doggie bags can hold steak bones or doo-doo of an increasingly familiar smell. For now investors should be holding their noses, their risk orientation, as well as their blue bags, until proven otherwise. Specifically that continues to dictate a focus on high quality bonds and steady dividend paying stocks that can survive, if not thrive, in our journey to a  “new normal” economy of slower growth, muted profit gains, and potential capital destruction via default, abrogation of property rights, and dollar devaluation.

If we think a return to business as usual is the proper path, we will merely go in circles and end up right back in this same spot….if not worse.

I welcome comments from those who share or differ with these assessments.


Dollar Devaluation Is a Dangerous Game

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 8th, 2009 9:24 AM |

Can we ‘devalue’ our way back to our days of economic ‘wine and roses?’

Many debt-laden countries throughout economic history have chosen to implicitly or explicitly pursue a devaluation of their currency as a means of improving their economies. Are the ‘wizards in Washington’ taking this approach? Aside from a few perfunctory comments in defense of the greenback, Washington has been largely silent on the topic of the declining value of the dollar. Many believe Washington very much favors a weaker currency as a means of supporting our economy. I believe this of Washington, as well. Let’s navigate.

Going back to the G20 in London last Spring, the Obama administration has attempted to curry political favor with emerging economies, especially the BRIC nations, by ceding dollar sovereigncy as the preeminent international reserve currency in return for support of global economic stimulus programs. Why does Washington believe a weak currency serves our economic interests? A weak currency generates and supports the following:

1. Promotes inflation as imports decline. Washington would like some inflation, given the massive deflationary pressures presented by falling wages and declines in the value of commercial and residential real estate.

2. Promotes exports for corporations with a multi-national presence.

3. Supports labor by making it more attractive for companies to keep jobs here as opposed to opening factories or sending work overseas.

So, in light of our current economic crisis, why wouldn’t we want a substantially cheaper dollar to maximize these benefits?

Recall that economists always need to keep certain variables static in order to study the impact of a change in another variable or multiple variables. This approach, known as ‘ceteris paribus,’ is not quite as easy as some may think. Why? Variables are NEVER static, or ‘ceteris is NEVER paribus.’ (more…)

Tune in to No Quarter Radio’s “Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle”

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 22nd, 2009 9:35 AM |

Please join us this evening from 8-9 p.m. ET for No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle. With the stock market near 12 year lows, what is driving soc-promo5the flows? What is truly going on in the economy? Where are markets headed? Given the Washington political circus, how will new legislation impact the future of Wall Street? So much to cover.

Additionally, I will talk with Chuck Doyle of Business Capital in San Francisco. Chuck is one of the leading professionals in the field of debt restructuring and recapitalization, and he has been highlighted regularly in major media outlets including The Wall Street Journal and CNN. In the midst of our current economic turmoil, this conversation will be both timely and enlightening.

These are truly historic times in the global economy. Let’s “navigate the economic landscape” without the pandering or nonsense found elsewhere! What is on your mind? What would you like to address? Please share your questions and thoughts by calling in to (347) 677-0792, and also join our live chat room, which I’ll start up about 10 minutes before the show begins!

As a reminder, all NO QUARTER RADIO programming is archived and can be played back at any time. Just go to the NO QUARTER RADIO site and look for previous episodes. In addition, each program is available as a podcast on iTunes.

Many thanks to Larry Johnson and the rest of the team at No Quarter USA blog for providing such a vibrant vehicle as NO QUARTER RADIO. I look forward to having you join me Sunday evening as we collectively navigate the economic landscape!!

FROM THE ARCHIVES: The Wall Street Model Is Broken…and Won’t Soon Be Fixed!!

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 5th, 2009 6:37 PM |

Some of my favorite movies are The Sting, Rocky, and Papillon.  I could watch those films a few times a year and appreciate the plot, character development, and climax.

In that same vein, for newer readers here at Sense on Cents, I want to highlight a piece I wrote on November 12, 2008.  I believe this piece is as clear cut an historical explanation as I have seen to highlight the background of the debacle on Wall Street which precipitated this economic disaster. I also find it interesting as to my comments about potential market reaction to an aggressive tax/spend program under President Obama and a Democratic Congress. 

I hope you find this article informative and enlightening: (more…)

Dead Cat Bounce

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 4th, 2009 3:00 PM |

The equity markets are up almost 3% today. Did we just put in a bottom? Can we at long last expect better price performance? Are we seeing a turnaround in the economy? Well, in Wall Street parlance today’s price action is known as a “dead cat bounce.”  I had mentioned a day or two ago that a short term RSI (relative strength index) had fallen below 30%. Anytime that index gets that low, the market is susceptible to a bounce to force some short covering

The Federal Reserve released a report, known as the Beige Book, and highlighted that they expect No Turnaround Soon  in the economy.  

Additionally, even though the major market averages are up 3%, why is it that the major capital providers are down significantly on the day? Look at the price changes for the following: (more…)

Mo’ Money…

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 3rd, 2009 2:48 PM |

There are a string of events in the market today that all highlight the need for entities to refinance debt and raise capital.  Given the tightness of credit and the onerous terms being exacted within the bond market, many firms are massively capital constrained. These issues are global in nature. From our friends at Bloomberg, I offer the links to a number of these situations. In light of these types of situations, one does not need to be in a hurry to buy stocks.  Additionally, given the demands for capital, I still maintain that rates are headed higher.

I will share with you some of the current problem situations getting serious attention:

1. GE Falls Below $7 on Concern Finance Unit May Need More Capital

2. Corporate Bond Losses Drive Investors ‘to the Bunker’

3. Metlife, Lincoln Sink as U.S. Stock Rout Increases Capital Need

4. German Real Estate Firms Owe Billions, Face Deadlines


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