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HomeLet’s Listen to Stephen Harper
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 18th, 2009 11:22 AM |
A month or so ago, I introduced former Australian Prime Minister and Treasury Secretary Paul Keating to our readers here at Sense on Cents. Keating offered a wealth of piercing and insightful perspectives on the world of global finance. He forecasted the likely shift of global financial power toward the surplus countries in Asia. While I have never seen nor heard Keating’s views broadcast here in the United States, I appreciated his sobering analysis.
In a similar vein, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper is not exactly a household name in the United States. We were provided the political strappings of President Obama’s initial foreign trip when he traveled to Ottawa to meet Harper 6 weeks ago. The pomp and circumstance along with the Royal Canadian Mounties made for some nice theatre. (more…)
How Do We Track Housing?
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 12th, 2009 7:07 AM |
At the core of most, if not all, of our economic problems lies housing. I do not need to replay the tape of low rates, shoddy underwriting, and Wall Street securitizations that all played a dramatic role in creating a bubble the likes of which we have never seen and hopefully never will again. All that said, housing is an enormous market with a wide array of factors impacting it. How does one track it? Are we supposed to rely on our local brokers telling us things feel better? Should we ask contractors if they are bidding on jobs? Dare we rely on our local or national media outlets to provide their expertise and pandering? If we did, housing may have bottomed 14 different times in the last 10 months. In all seriousness, how can we track housing? Welcome to Sense on Cents.
There are two indexes that have developed over the last few years and are enormously respected by market participants. One index, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes, is released on a monthly basis. This index tracks a variety of regions in the country but not every region. Still, all things considered, this index is widely watched as a reliable indicator of health in housing. The index is typically released toward the end of each month. The most recently released report was on February 24th, A Look at Case-Shiller Numbers, by Metro Area. In this report, all indications are that housing has yet to see any support. (more…)
Overnight Trade
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 4th, 2009 6:31 AM |
Stocks in Asia rose on the heels of a report that China’s Wen May Announce New Stimulus Measures to Revive Growth
With China allocating this capital to a new stimulus, will that lead to lessened appetite for U.S. Treasury debt? In overnight trading, Treasuries Drop on Potential $60 Billion Note Sale Next Week.
In other market making news, the shine has come off gold somewhat. I had cautioned that I do not play in gold because of the large number of speculative traders. Gold dropped 3% overnight and is back to $910/oz.
The U.S. dollar continues to move higher versus the Japanese yen and is back close to par, 100 yen for $1 dollar.
I remain in the camp that the bond market will continue to be pressured by the global demand for capital.
One story that also bears watching is the “plundering” of Merrill Lynch. In breaking news the WSJ reports how Merrill Lynch paid a large number of individuals outrageous sums at the end of 2008. Merrill’s $10 Million Men highlights the details. If I am John Thain, I’m not sleeping well!!
LD
February 2009 Market Review
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 28th, 2009 10:13 AM |
Prior to going to the comments section of my son’s report card, human nature dictates that I first look at the grades. In that same vein, let’s see how the markets performed for the month of February:
Let’s review my specific projections from the January 2009 Recap: (more…)
Legalized Bribery
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 16th, 2009 6:57 PM |
Quality business relationships are always mutually beneficial. If they are not mutually beneficial, then they will not thrive or perhaps even last at all. A strong business relationship, like any personal relationship, needs a foundation of honesty and
integrity. As in any relationship, there will be plenty of instances in which the parties have disagreements and misunderstandings. If the relationship is strong enough, it can not only endure through these times but often grow stronger as a result of them.
The challenge in any relationship is when one party is conflicted and attempts to serve two masters. These conflicted relationships – whether personal, political, social, or business – must change in order to grow or are doomed to languish and underperform if not die completely. On Wall Street, a business that so grossly prioritizes short term profits versus long term customer relationships will not grow. Perhaps for a period of time the excess profits will be addicting and mesmerize management, but over time that model will not work. Bear Stearns is a classic example of this principle. From having worked there for 7 years in the 90s, I evidenced it firsthand. (more…)
Cheaters Never Win
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 12th, 2009 7:34 PM |
While our country has had high profile cheats such as Bernie Madoff, Barry Bonds, and the crowd from Enron amongst MANY others, we have other cheats permeating our lives every day. Tim Geithner offered that “he screwed up” on his taxes and Alex Rodriguez claimed that he was young and naive from 2001-2003 when he took steroids. In my opinion, I believe both of these individuals are representative of a society that has become far too lax in tolerating a lack of decency and integrity. This is not good business!!
In the midst of the current economic turmoil, we all want to look for individuals, groups, parties, and/or industries that are culpable and direct our indignation towards them. While we may gain some sort of short term gratification, are we changing the nature of the dialogue and in turn the course of our country? I think not.
The opportunity for the “silent majority” within the American public to voice their opinion, promote real core values of decency and accountability, and “lead” our country has never been greater. (more…)
