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HomeMarch 6, 2010: Economic/Market Week in Review
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 6th, 2010 6:08 AM |
Markets continued to rebound this week. Why? Dramatic improvements in Greece? No. Solid economic news here at home? I don’t think so. A slew of positive earnings reports? Hardly. What are we to make of it?
Welcome to our Sense on Cents Week in Review where I provide a streamlined recap of the major economic data and news, along with month-to-date market returns.
ECONOMIC DATA
Recovery? I would not classify the data this week as defining a recovery. I will be gracious and define the data as mildly negative. Don’t take my word for it, let’s review the data together and you tell me what you see and what I may be missing. Let’s dive right in. Unless a hard number is indicated, the data represents the percentage change for the prior month along with the consensus expectation for the current month and then the actual change for the current month. (more…)
What if Nobody Shows to Wall Street’s Party?
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 5th, 2010 2:48 PM |
Did Wall Street forget to send out invitations to the party going on in the equity markets, or are people merely preoccupied with other affairs to truly care as to what is happening in lower Manhattan?
In any event, I referenced the other day during my appearance on CNBC’s Street Signs that the greatest risk for the financial industry is if people choose not to play the game. In fact, I very much believe that dynamic is playing out. Why? Look at today’s price action in the equity markets. (more…)
Fannie Mae Plays “Let’s Make a Deal”
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 5th, 2010 12:38 PM |
“Let’s see, do you want to go for the prize behind Door #1 or take a chance on what’s in the big box?”
“Well Monty, I’m playing with your money so it doesn’t really matter now, does it?”
1970’s vintage TV may have been entertaining, but is the current deal-making used by Fannie Mae to liquidate housing inventory truly the way to develop a healthy and robust housing market?
Just what is Fannie Mae doing? (more…)
Larry Fink: The King and His Kingdom
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 5th, 2010 11:10 AM |
Who runs Wall Street?
Last June, I designated “Larry Fink: The King of Wall Street” and wrote:
With the downfall of Wall Street over the last two years, we have seen some giants within the industry summarily dismissed and, in certain cases, demonized. Who knows what the future holds for Dick Fuld, Jimmy Cayne, John Thain, and Angelo Mozilo.
With their demise, who now reigns over the Wall Street kingdom? Many would debate that either Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs or Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan Chase is the “king of the court.” Well, Lloyd and Jamie certainly wield significant power and influence on Wall Street, but there is no doubt that the King of Wall Street is the CEO of BlackRock, Larry Fink.
Larry Fink was my first boss on Wall Street when I joined First Boston in August 1983. (more…)
Unemployment Report: March 5, 2010
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 5th, 2010 9:59 AM |
The widely anticipated March Unemployment Report covering the month of February was just released. Let’s dive right in and take a look at the numbers . . .
I. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
August: 9.4%
September: 9.7%
October: 9.8%
November: 10.2%…revised to 10.1%
December: 10%
January: 10%
February: 10.1%
– March Consensus Expectation: 9.7-9.8%
– March Actual: 9.7%
>> LD’s comments: as expected. Not widely publicized is the fact that the U-6, that is the underemployment rate moved back up from 16.5% to 16.8%. Not trying to be intentionally pessimistic but merely trying to provide a full snapshot so we can navigate accordingly. (more…)
Treasury’s Herb Allison Needs a Truth Enema
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 4th, 2010 12:33 PM |
According to testimony this morning from Treasury official Herb Allison, currently charged with overseeing the management of the TARP, there are no financial firms now guaranteed as ‘too big to fail.’
What rock did Herb just crawl out from?
The Wall Street Journal addresses Herb’s ridiculous comment in writing, Treasury Official: ‘No Too Big to Fail Guarantee’ for Big Financial Firms:
There is no U.S. government guarantee to protect the largest financial firms, a Treasury Department official said Thursday, as a congressional watchdog criticized the $45 billion in government aid provided to Citigroup Inc. (more…)
Duke/CFO Survey: Good News and Bad News
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 4th, 2010 10:01 AM |
What can we learn from those who sign the checks at over a thousand companies around our country? Let’s review a synopsis of a recently released Duke University CFO Survey. This analysis, On the Mend, is presented by CFO Magazine:
At last, some good news. For the first time in more than a year, finance chiefs expect double-digit growth in earnings and significant growth in capital spending over the next 12 months, according to the Duke University/CFOMagazine Global Business Outlook Survey for the first quarter of 2010. Finance chiefs are also loosening the reins on technology spending, research and development spending, and marketing and advertising spending.
The welcome news doesn’t come without a few troubling reservations, however. (more…)
Did Hawaii Purchase ARS from FINRA through Citi?
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 4th, 2010 7:29 AM |
The auction-rate securities market did not instantaneously freeze in early 2008. The fact is, the ARS market started to fail in mid-2007 on the heels of a variety of market segments repricing given the liquidity issues on Wall Street. Recall that mortgage hedge funds at Bear Stearns cratered in spring 2007. At that point, Wall Street was becoming much more risk averse while shepherding the use of its own capital and balance sheets. During this point in time, the ARS market started to fail and ultimately totally froze in early 2008.
Evidence is rampant that Wall Street worked feverishly from mid-2007 until early 2008 to offload auction-rate securities anywhere and everywhere without informing investors of the failing nature of the market. (more…)
Oppenheimer ARS Investor Rails on NY AG Cuomo re: OPCO-ARS Settlement
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 3rd, 2010 5:15 PM |
How often do politicians declare victory while innocent victims remain baffled, bewildered, and befuddled as they hang onto the pangs of defeat? How often do politicians look to score political points while not delivering real progress let alone justice for those victimized by fraud? Regrettably, this dynamic plays out all too often.
I witness it in a letter sent today by an innocent investor victimized by the fraudulent distribution of auction-rate securities by Oppenheimer Holdings. This investor who remains nameless for obvious reasons shares his pain and anguish in a letter sent to New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo’s office.
Feel his pain and know that Cuomo’s settlement and victory lap are not even a drop in the bucket of the remaining $150 billion frozen ARS market. Two years have passed since the ARS market froze. For many investors, their lives and well beings froze right along with it.
Who within our political circles, our financial regulatory framework, our media are truly willing to stand up for all these victims? (more…)
Hedge Fund Collusion to Pound Euro?
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 3rd, 2010 12:35 PM |
Meeting industry friends and colleagues for dinner, drinks, and market talk is standard fare. In fact, I would say it is good business as it is important to develop relationships within the industry.
That said, the development of these professional relationships and the interaction amongst the professionals should never come at the expense of professional ethics and integrity. I did witness more than a handful of times individuals from different shops on both the buy-side and the sell-side of the industry push the envelope very close and sometimes over that ethical line.
Not always, but very often, the ethical shortcomings involved hedge funds. Why? The revenue model for hedge funds (typically 2% asset management fee and 20% of profits derived) serves as a huge incentive for traders at hedge funds to gain an edge and act upon it as much as possible. The fact that the hedge fund traders and managers have a direct stake and an accompanying vested interest in the profits fuels this crowd like nothing else. (more…)
