Archive for the ‘Fannie Mae’ Category
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 8th, 2009 3:09 PM |
One of our Economic All-Stars is Bob Rodriguez of First Pacific Advisors. In the spirit of being totally equitable, I should have also posted Tom Atteberry’s name next to Bob’s. Bob and Tom were jointly named 2008 Morningstar Fixed Income Managers of the Year.
Bob is currently taking a leave of absence from First Pacific but Tom is equally outstanding. I had the pleasure of making his acquaintance while I worked at JP Morgan. Tom Atteberry is a pro’s pro. He spoke to Bloomberg earlier today and made these comments, which I took in longhand, so I am not quoting but I listened very carefully. Tom opined:
1. The current environment is the worst time to get into bonds. Why?
2. The creditworthiness of individuals and companies across the economy will only get worse from here and that deteriorating credit is not currently priced into the market.
3. U. S. government debt (Treasuries) represent NO value at current levels. If a fair expected rate of return is between 2-3% and a longer term rate of inflation is also between 2-3%, the rate on a 10 yr. maturity Treasury note should be in the vicinity of 5%. That note is currently trading at 2.85%. Don’t overpay for an asset just because somebody else is, in this case the Federal Reserve. (more…)
Tags: Bob Rodriguez, credit, deteriorating credit, Economy, Fed Buying mortgages, Federal reserve buying Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, Federal Reserve shrinking their balance sheet, First Pacific Advisors, relative value of U.S. Treasuries, Tom Atteberry
Posted in Bob Rodriguez, Economy, Employment, Equity Markets, Fannie Mae, First Pacific Advisors, Freddie Mac, General, Ginnie mae, Inflation, Mortgages, Risk, Tom Atteberry | 4 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 4th, 2009 10:07 AM |
I much prefer a rallying stock market, but I am not a day trader trying to catch moves for quick flips. I look for changes in economic fundamentals (incorporating both private sector and public sector inputs), assess those changes with market technicals (overbought and oversold conditions), and position myself accordingly.
The big wild card in current analysis is the impact of public sector inputs. Many of the maneuvers utilized by the Treasury and Federal Reserve have never been used prior to this economic downturn. Are they working? To what extent? What are the unintended consequences? What is the time delay from implementing a program to measuring its impact on the economy? These questions are the topics of protracted discussions by economists, bankers, analysts, and money managers around the globe. I’d also like to address them here at Sense on Cents.
My market instincts tell me that programs injecting trillions of dollars across wide swaths of the market are not without costs. These costs in the form of ”crowding out“, distorted competition, changed behaviors (AIG undercutting insurance rates), moral hazards, and inflation are very real. The challenge is assessing the risks of these long term costs versus the necessity of providing sufficient capital and liquidity backstops to support the economy. (more…)
Tags: crowding out, economic fundamentals, Fibonacci Retracement, moral hazards, more government bailouts, rallying stock market, relaxation of mark to market, technical analysis
Posted in Bailout, Bank Failure, Banking Institutions, Credit Risk, Economic Stimulus, Economy, Equity Markets, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Government funds, Obama Administration, Tim Geithner, Wall Street | 14 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 22nd, 2009 12:26 PM |
I am a proud graduate of the College of the Holy Cross, a Jesuit institution in Worcester, MA. The strength of a Jesuit education lies in the principles of Logic and Morality. While I fully appreciated my classes in Economics, German, Philosophy, and others, my classes in Logic and Morality made the greatest impact on me. Those classes forced me to think, not make rash judgments, take positions, and defend them.
Fast forward to 2009 and a banking industry facing hundreds of billions, if not trillions, of unrealized losses. How do we most effectively, efficiently, and expeditiously address the health of this banking system so that our economy and population can regain its footing and prosper? Let me revert back to the late ’70s and early ’80s and the principles instilled in me by those Jesuits.
My Logic class utilized “decision trees.” My Morality class was based on the principle of ”the greatest good for the greatest number.”
What have we learned over the last 6 months, as well as the last 16 years, to help us chart our way forward? (more…)
Tags: AIG, Bank Nationalization, bank shareholder equity, banking losses, bankinig industry, class warfare, College of the Holy Cross, Democratic Congress, executive compensation, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, government interest rates, Logic, Moral Hazard, Morality, People's republic of China, populist outrage
Posted in American Consumers, Bank Nationalization, Banking Institutions, Barack Obama, Congress, Democratic Party, Economy, Equity Markets, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, General, Obama Administration, Wall Street | 11 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 12th, 2009 6:30 PM |
The world of insurance occupies almost every corner of our lives. Life, home, auto, disability, long term care, personal articles. Rather than addressing what is insured, an easier question may be to ask what isn’t insured.
Given the intricate web of products and accompanying risks, we clearly are not currently dealing with your grandfathers’ insurance companies.
All that said, insurance is a relatively simple business. A policy is underwritten, premiums are collected and invested, and on and on we go. In fact, with major policies incorporating outsized risks, insurers can “lay off” risk with reinsurers, such as Munich Reinsurance, Swiss Reinsurance, and General Reinsurance. One would think this should be a steady and stable, if not quiet, industry. It would be such if companies did not reach for outsized returns through ever greater risks, primarily in the products in which they invested. While The Quiet Company, Northwestern Mutual invests primarily in high quality corporate bonds, entities like AIG trafficked in esoteric CDS. Hartford Financial Services played in the lower credit sectors of the commercial mortgage space, sub-prime mortgages, and junk bonds. (more…)
Tags: AIG, commercial real estate, corporate bonds, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, General Reinsurance, Hartford Financial Services, insurance companies, junk bonds, Met Life, Munich Reinsurance, Northwestern Mutual, reinsurers, Risk, sub-prime mortgages, Swiss Reinsurance
Posted in American Consumers, Banking Institutions, Credit Risk, Current Affairs, Economy, Education, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, General, Insurance Industry, Wall Street | 4 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 9th, 2009 3:35 PM |
A great American and loyal reader (thanks FL) shared a report recently produced by not-for-profits Essential Information and The Consumer Education Foundation. This report, Sold Out: How Wall Street and Washington Betrayed America, has gotten little to no attention in the general media. What a shame. I find of particular interest the fact that a number of the currently discussed regulatory changes are directly addressing the points highlighted in this report. I personally view these proposed regulatory changes as substantiating this report and adding credibility to its effort. For the naysayers in the audience, I would ask you to review the report and reconsider your assessment.
I was struck a month ago by the incriminating statements put forth by Senator Chuck Hagel and CIA head Leon Panetta, which I highlighted on February 16th in Legalized Bribery. Those statements bluntly indict our massive system of lobbying, political fundraising, and the quality of those running for elected office! In light of that article, I am more and more convinced that our elected officials have turned their offices into massive for profit machines at the expense of our public well being.
I commend the authors of this report, Roger Weissman and James Donahue, for taking the time and making the extensive effort to expose the truth. The full report, 231 pages in length, spares no detail. In studying it, I found the information and analysis riveting. Let me try to summarize it for you. (more…)
Tags: Arthur Levitt, California electricity crisis, CFTC, Chris Cox, Chuck Hagel, Citibank, derivatives, Enron, Essential Information, Fannie Mae, FDR, Freddie Mac, Glass-Steagall, greed, James Donahue, Leon Panetta, media complex, Merrill LYnch, off-balance sheet accounting, Paul Volker, Phil Gramm, President Clinton, regulation, Roger Weissman, The Consumer Educational Foundation, Travelers, Wall Street, Washington
Posted in American Consumers, Bank Failure, Banking Institutions, Barack Obama, Business, Christopher Dodd, Chuck Hagel, Chuck Schumer, Congress, Credit Derivative Swaps, Current Affairs, Democratic Party, Economy, Education, Equity Markets, FINRA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, General, Housing Crisis, Insurance Industry, Leon Panetta, Lobbyists, Obama Administration, Rahm Emanuel, Republicans, Reputation, Wall Street | 14 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 5th, 2009 5:50 AM |
I always maintained that Fannie Mae’s risk management was horrendous. Having engaged this organization in business for many years, it was obvious that their risk was managing them rather than vice versa. While the organization mismanaged risk, their former CEO, Franklin Raines, obviously knew it was prudent to keep expenses down. Franklin Raines, however, knows how to play politics with the best of them and has never let his reputation get in the way of developing marketable relationships.
I wrote about Mr. Raines specifically and Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae in general in a piece last October. I followed that up with a review of Mr. Raines Returns to Washington in mid-December. (more…)
Tags: Angelo Mozilo, Congress, Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Franklin Raines, Freddie Mac, Risk, Wall Street Journal, Washington D.C.
Posted in American Consumers, Barack Obama, Christopher Dodd, Congress, Economy, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Mortgages, Wall Street | 2 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 28th, 2009 4:20 PM |
Warren Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders is always a highly anticipated event by market participants. Given the fact that Berkshire is effectively a diversified holdings company, Buffett has a unique perspective into a wide array of businesses. He also has the wisdom of investing over many years and through many challenging markets.
Well, if misery loves company, it has a solid partner in the person of Warren Buffett because 2008 was Berkshire Hathaway’s worst year ever. In reviewing Buffett’s letter allow me to offer some highlights. For those who have an even passing interest in the markets and investing, reading this letter is akin to attending an opera by Pavarotti.
I beg your indulgence as I attempt to be the opening act and provide an overview of the “Oracle of Omaha’s” thoughts on the markets and economy: (more…)
Tags: American Express, Berkshire Hathaway, Economy, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, markets, OFHEO, Oracle of Omaha, Pavarotti, U.S. Treasury, Wall Street Journal, Warren Buffet
Posted in Banking Institutions, Business, Commerce, Current Affairs, Deficit, Economic Stimulus, Economy, Employment, Equity Markets, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, General, Global Finance, Housing Crisis, Risk, S&P 500, Unemployment, Wall Street | 1 Comment »
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 26th, 2009 10:59 AM |
The government yesterday released the specifics of the Bank Stress Test to be undertaken by the 19 major banking institutions in our country. Those details in conjunction with the testimony provided this week by Treasury Secretary Geithner and Fed chair Bernanke provide a very clear signal as to the government’s approach to our economic problems. In my estimation they are clearly indicating they are going “all in!”
Before we get to the market reactions, allow me to share insights from a highly regarded bank analyst and then comment myself.
Most analysts and economists view the government’s worst case scenarios under the bank test as not much more severe than what many already expect. I’m an optimist by nature but live by the mantra of hope for the best, prepare for the worst. The market will discount the government’s worst case. (more…)
Tags: 1930s, AIG, Bank Stress Test, Ben Bernanke, Chris Whalen, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, government spending, New York Times, Office of Comptroller of Currency, Office of Thrift Supervision, taxes, Tim Geithner
Posted in American Consumers, Bailout, Bank Failure, Bank Nationalization, Ben Bernanke, Citigroup, Economy, Equity Markets, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Government funds, Tim Geithner | 3 Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 22nd, 2009 4:29 PM |
I worked in the mortgage business on Wall Street for 23 years. During that time period I had the good fortune of developing relationships with some of the finest minds in this sector. While I do not know Laurie Goodman personally, I can tell you that there is no one individual in the market today whom investors follow more closely when it comes to developments in this space. While Ms. Goodman does work in a business that is actively engaged with investors, I have always appreciated her perspectives as being untainted by bias and merely reflecting an extremely professional and honest outlook.
What does Ms. Goodman think about President Obama’s plans for housing? It would appear that there may be all sorts of unintended consequences and misaligned incentives in this proposal. Regrettably plans that are well intended often do not necessarily achieve their desired results. I strongly recommend you read Mortgage Plan Aids Liars About Income to gain a fuller appreciation of this proposal.
LD
Tags: Laurie Goodman
Posted in American Consumers, Banking Institutions, Business, Current Affairs, Economy, FDIC, Families, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, General, Housing Crisis, Mortgage Cram-Down, Mortgage Crisis, Mortgages, Obama Administration, Real Estate, Wall Street | No Comments »
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 20th, 2009 5:20 PM |
While there is tremendous volatility in the markets and commensurate anxiety as a result, there were some major stories and developments that got less play but deserved more.
Allow me to expound. Robert Shiller, a highly distinguished Economics Professor at Yale Univeristy and co-designer of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index spoke this morning on Bloomberg News. Shiller is the preeminent expert on trends and developments in housing. He made the following assessments:
1. Glad to see that Obama is making an effort to support housing but has serious concerns about the effort.
2. $75 billion allocated for loan modification is not nearly enough to make a truly meaningful impact. (remember there is another $200 billion allocated for Freddie and Fannie to refinance mortgages).
3. No plan or proposal for those holding Jumbo mortgages leaves a large part of the market without benefits. Those homes will likely hang over the market.
(more…)
Tags: Bloomberg News, Case-Shiller Index, Robert Shiller
Posted in American Consumers, Australia, Bad Bank, Bank Nationalization, Bank of America, Banking Institutions, Barack Obama, Christopher Dodd, Citigroup, Economic Stimulus, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, General, Housing Crisis, Mortgage Crisis, Mortgages, Nouril Roubini, Stimulus Plan, Tim Geithner | No Comments »
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