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The Freddie Mac Pigsty

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 30th, 2009 7:56 AM |

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have served as Washington’s piggy bank for far too long. The issuance of a blank check by Uncle Sam on Christmas Eve to cover losses at Freddie and Fannie through 2012 only cements the legacy of the pigs who have fed at the Freddie and Fannie trough.

While the sty is mighty big, don’t think for a second that the pillaging and plundering of these organizations is restricted to the high and mighty politicos who pretend to know how to develop housing policy and programs. What do I mean?

Tucked away in one corner of the sty is this little gem posted by The Wall Street Journal, Freddie HR Chief’s Big Payday: (more…)

Fannie and Freddie’s Blank Check Will Further Fuel America’s Rage

Posted by Larry Doyle on December 28th, 2009 8:38 AM |

I remain incensed at the sheer arrogance and brazen demeanor of the Obama administration providing a blank check on Christmas Eve to cover future losses of the failed institutions Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Given the fact that this check has been issued, America deserves to know what exactly it is covering. Over and above a full and total exposition of these government sponsored entities, America is in a position to demand certain retributions. Let’s bang the drum and demand some answers, including:

1. The current valuations of all of Freddie’s and Fannie’s holdings so America can fully evaluate those holdings relative to market prices.

2. The current fees being paid for all services rendered.

3. An independent audit.

4. Why aren’t these stocks delisted immediately? To allow stock in these entities to continue to trade is a total mockery of a legitimate market.

5. Clawback all bonus payments rendered to Franklin Raines, James Johnson, and Leland Brendsel, the executives at Fannie and Freddie who truly plundered these institutions. (more…)

Uncle Sam’s Continuation of the Housing Bubble

Posted by Larry Doyle on September 2nd, 2009 8:57 AM |

With housing prices down 30+% on average over the last few years, is Uncle Sam blowing fresh air into the housing balloon and actually creating another housing bubble? I believe that’s exactly what is happening.

If you are scratching your head and think I am off base with my assertion, please navigate this path along our economic landscape with me.

What drove the housing bubble? Cheap rates and undisciplined lending from the private sector. What added to the bubble? The internal ‘hedge fund’ portfolios of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

What is perpetuating the housing bubble if not creating another mini-bubble of sorts? Cheap rates and undisciplined lending directly from Uncle Sam or supported by Uncle Sam. What is adding to this bubble? Those same internal portfolios at Freddie and Fannie.

What entities within Uncle Sam’s domain are providing the cheap rates and undisciplined lending?

1. The Federal Housing Administration ( FHA-insured loans are packaged into GNMA securities, which have the explicit backing of Uncle Sam)

2. The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program in which it has purchased hundreds of billions in mortgage-backed securities with authority to purchase a total of $1 trillion+ in MBS is also blowing fresh air into the balloon.

3. Freddie and Fannie are also supporting the bubble by providing fresh capital via their portfolios.

People may say that Uncle Sam had to provide this capital because the private sector would not. In fact, The Wall Street Journal makes that very assertion this morning in writing, Industry Seeks Fannie, Freddie Overhaul:

Together with the Federal Housing Administration, Fannie and Freddie now purchase or guarantee nearly nine in 10 new mortgages, since private buyers of such loans have been absent amid the housing bust.

I categorically do not accept this assertion. There is more than enough private capital in the system to purchase these mortgages. The issue is that the private capital will only purchase these mortgages at appropriate risk adjusted prices. Freddie, Fannie, the FHA, and the Federal Reserve are stepping ‘through the market’ and subsidizing mortgage rates by at least 50 basis points and, in turn, crowding out private buyers. The WSJ continues:

Fannie and Freddie have taken nearly $96 billion of capital infusions from the U.S. Treasury since last November. The companies have received nearly 10 times that amount in additional support through purchases of debt and mortgage-backed securities by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve.

[Picking up the Slack chart]

Who is benefiting from these subsidized rates? New homeowners. Do not think for a second, however, that risks are properly aligned in this current mortgage dynamic.

The continued mispricing of risk will mean our housing market will experience more protracted levels of delinquencies, defaults, and foreclosures than if mortgage rates were higher and real discipline were instituted into the lending process.

In fact, unless our country accepts a fully socialized mortgage finance system, mortgage rates will have to move higher to reflect private sector pricing. Risks and returns will then be properly aligned and the bubble will deflate.

LD

Related Sense on Cents Commentary:
“Uncle Sam Guaranteeing Sub-Prime Loans” (May 4, 2009)

What’s Next for Freddie and Fannie?

Posted by Larry Doyle on August 6th, 2009 8:51 AM |

When losses get so large something ultimately must be done.

In that vein, I am not surprised to see news developing about Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae’s future. The Washington Post is reporting Administration Considers Splitting Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac:

The Obama administration launched a broad government effort this week to overhaul mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and is considering splitting the companies and putting their troubled assets in a new federally backed corporation, administration officials said.

Troubled assets is a misnomer. ALL of their assets are troubled. Some are more troubled than others. How so? Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae absorb all of the credit risk on loans which they guarantee. Given the current state of our domestic housing market, the risk or troubled nature of every mortgage in our country, let alone in Freddie and Fannie’s portfolio, has increased. As loans continue to default at ever increasing rates Freddie and Fannie just bleed money. More troubled assets encompass a variety of commercial mortgages, Alt-A, and sub-prime mortgages.

I am very interested to see how a good bank/bad bank model would be structured. The fact is to wipe the slate clean, Uncle Sam would literally have to move ALL of Freddie’s and Fannie’s current assets. At that point, Freddie and Fannie should simply guarantee future mortgages without actually purchasing them (meaning let the mortgage securities be purchased by private entities in the marketplace) with proper risk based pricing applied. Short of that, a restructured Freddie and Fannie will likely only replicate a version of past errors.

Do our regulators have the courage to push for this initiative? We will hear that they will work toward this structure ‘down the road.’ How long is the road? This situation will be very interesting. Will it be transparent?

Such an approach would keep the government on the hook for losses into the indeterminate future but would also clear the way for the revamped companies to play a critical role of financing home loans throughout the country.

This statement is nothing short of an acceptance of a ’socialized housing program’ to absorb current and future losses but also to underwrite future loans at what will effectively be below market rates. The fact is losses will be perpetuated simply because Freddie and Fannie will continue to subsidize mortgages via lower mortgage rates. In the process, risk is being mispriced under the guise of supporting our housing market. Increased risk will ultimately mean increased losses.   (more…)

Uncle Sam’s Dirty Little Secret Is Revealed

Posted by Larry Doyle on July 23rd, 2009 11:15 AM |

Uncle Sam may think he can keep losses of tens of billions of dollars somewhat secretive, but when those losses cross into the hundreds of billions the dirt is much harder to keep under the rug.

What is the nature and size of this dirt? The losses assocated with those dastardly large twins, Fannie and Freddie. I lifted the rug on this dirt on June 18th in writing, Uncle Sam’s Dirty Little Secret.

Fannie and Freddie hold 50% of the mortgages in our country. These entities are most likely sitting on hundreds of billions in embedded losses currently with limited prospects to generate real revenue. They have no viable business model at this point in time.

CNN reports today, Fannie and Freddie: The Most Expensive Bailout

When Congress was debating the bailout of Fannie and Freddie last July, the official estimate from the Congressional Budget Office was that a bailout would most likely cost taxpayers $25 billion, with only a 5% chance of the price tag reaching $100 billion between them.

In addition, both Fannie and Freddie are likely to need billions of dollars more after they report second quarter results in the coming weeks. Experts believe the cost will only continue to rise in the next year.

“We’re assuming they each will cross the $100 billion mark fairly soon. They could be hitting the $200 billion barrier by the end of next year,” said Bose George, mortgage analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, an investment bank specializing in financial services firms.

The fact remains that these two wards of the state are no longer for profit entities but rather vehicles for promoting Obama’s housing plans and redistribution of wealth.

The losses within Fannie and Freddie will accrue as long as housing delinquencies and defaults increase. No credible analyst can truly predict when those statistics may peak. They can guess but given the runup in home prices along with the growth in housing, that is all they can do.

In fact, the argument can be made that the very policies being utilized to forestall delinquencies and defaults will ultimately exacerbate and extend the pressure on the housing market, and in turn, Fannie’s and Freddie’s losses.

Will the American taxpayer ever see a return on the funds being pumped into Fannie and Freddie? Don’t hold your breath. 

CNN continues,

Neither firm has given an estimate as to how high losses will reach. But the original limit of $100 billion in losses set in place when the government put Fannie and Freddie into conservatorship, essentially a form of bankruptcy, last September was quickly raised early this year to $200 billion each because of concerns about looming losses.

In return for pumping taxpayer dollars into the two firms, Treasury received preferred stock, which is designed to give the government a healthy 10% to 12% dividend. But few expect that Fannie or Freddie will be able to pay that dividend, let alone return the money handed to the firms to cover their losses..

Even James Lockhart, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the government body that has overseen the two firms since they were placed into conservatorship, said it will be a challenge for Fannie and Freddie to make their scheduled payments.

Let’s be honest, Fannie and Freddie have become financial intermediaries used to promote a form of socialized housing.

With Uncle Sam’s dirty little secret now revealed, break out the industrial strength vacuums!

LD

Related Commentary

Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae Deja Vu? ; May 28, 2009
If you think Fannie and Freddie are alone amidst this dirt, they have sizable company in the form of the Federal Home Loan Bank system.

Barack and Barney Look to Further Plunder Freddie and Fannie

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 22nd, 2009 2:31 PM |

When a homeowner goes out without locking his doors and leaving some lights on, he is inviting trouble.

In a similar fashion, the American public should prepare itself for a continued plundering of the portfolios and balance sheets of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae by our leading housing finance gurus, Barack Obama and Barney Frank.

The scene is already set for our dynamic duo to pile an ever increasing amount of risk onto these “wards of the state.” How so?

1. While Freddie and Fannie are very much the responsibility of Uncle Sam, their balance sheets are not technically on Uncle Sam’s roll. That ‘cover’ provides a convenient disguise, but the fact is these ‘foster children’ are now nothing more than receptacles for more of Uncle Sam’s risky undertakings.

2. Neither the media nor the political opposition truly call them on these financial charades.

We learn today that both Barack and Barney have grand visions to add more high risk loans at mispriced rates onto Freddie and Fannie’s books. The Wall Street Journal offers,  Changes Urged to Rules on Condo Loans:

Two Democratic lawmakers are calling on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to relax recently tightened standards for mortgages on new condominiums, saying they could threaten the viability of some developments and slow the housing-market recovery.

In March, Fannie Mae said it would no longer guarantee mortgages on condos in buildings where fewer than 70% of the units have been sold, up from 51%. Fannie Mae also won’t purchase mortgages in buildings where 15% of owners are delinquent on condo association dues or where one owner has more than 10% of units, which the firm sees as signals that a building could run into financial trouble. Freddie Mac will implement similar policies next month.

In a letter to the chief executives of Fannie and Freddie, Reps. Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who is chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, and Anthony Weiner (D., N.Y.) warned that the 70% sales threshold “may be too onerous” and could lead condo buyers to shun new developments. The legislators asked the companies to “make appropriate adjustments” to their underwriting standards for condos.

What does Barney Frank truly know about housing finance? This assessment is an elongated statement similar in style to Frank’s now famous approach to sub-prime lending back in September, 2003. Barney proposed, “I want to roll the dice.”  America crapped out on that roll. Now in the height of hypocrisy, Barney is still providing insights and recommendations on mortgage topics. What’s wrong with this picture? (more…)

Uncle Sam’s Dirty Little Secret

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 18th, 2009 4:36 PM |

If a tree falls in the forest and nobody is there to hear it, does it make any noise?

If an agency is sitting on billions in losses but nobody asks about it, can we forget about it?

If an entire group of banks is sitting on hundreds of billions more in losses, and the media is not even aware of this banking system, can we pretend they don’t exist?

Oh, if only we could, perhaps our economic life would be so much simpler.

While Uncle Sam and the media can choose to overlook these institutions, the losses are real and will serve as a drag on our economy and nation for the foreseeable future. Yet, they receive very little attention. Fortunately, Bloomberg shed a hint of light on part of this problem today in writing, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac in Limbo as Geithner Seeks More Time:

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will remain in limbo as the U.S. Treasury secretary said the government doesn’t have time now to deal with the future of the two mortgage-finance companies it seized in September.

“We did not believe that we could at this time — in this time frame — lay out a sensible set of reforms to guide, to determine what their future role should be,” Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told the Senate Banking Committee in Washington today. “We’re going to begin a process of looking at broader options for what their future should be.”

Doesn’t have time or doesn’t want to admit that these agencies represent an ongoing and enormous drag on our economy? How so? Fannie and Freddie hold 50% of the mortgages in our country. These entities are most likely sitting on hundreds of billions in embedded losses currently with limited prospects to generate real revenue. They have no viable business model at this point in time. As a result, rather than entering into an unpleasant and economically harmful dialogue, Geithner chooses to sweep this under the rug. How can Tim do this? Because Uncle Sam has allocated, if not necessarily set aside, funds for these agencies to offset future losses.  As Bloomberg highlights:

The remainder of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s  $400 billion U.S. Treasury lifeline should still be “sufficient” until the government decides how to restructure the companies, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director James Lockhart said in June 3 testimony to a House subcommittee. Washington-based Fannie Mae and McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac have already requested $84.9 billion in taxpayer aid through the Treasury’s program to buy the companies’ preferred stock to keep them solvent.

Over and above swimming in a sea of losses, both Freddie and Fannie are effectively rudderless. Fannie Mae’s acting CEO, Herb Allison, was recently appointed to oversee management of TARP funds at Treasury. Freddie Mac’s acting CEO, John Koskinen, had resigned and only returned when beseeched. While Koskinen has committed to retaining the role of chairman of Freddie, he can’t get out of his daily Freddie Mac responsibilities quickly enough as the WSJ reports, Freddie’s Accidental CEO Tries to Shed Job.

The dirtier little secret hidden by Uncle Sam is embedded within the Federal Home Loan Bank system. Why? After Uncle Sam, the FHLB system is the second largest creditor in our country with approximately $1.2 trillion in outstanding debt. While Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae’s portfolios are chock full of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS backed by conforming size loans), the portfolios within the FHLB system (12 regional banks) are stuffed with Jumbo mortgages, Alt-A, pay-option ARMS, and sub-prime. In short, lots of toxic assets and lots of embedded losses hidden by the artful deceit of the relaxed mark-to-market accounting standard.

Where are we going with these future wards of the state?  I project that in 2010, we will see these 14 entities (Freddie and Fannie and 12 regional FHLBs) combined into one large government owned housing finance entity.

Shhhhh . . . don’t tell anybody!!

LD

Cox’s Last Stand

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 2nd, 2009 3:02 PM |

Chris Cox’s tenure as chair of the SEC was not highly regarded. From the debacle with the Bernie Madoff situation, to the failure of Lehman Bros., to the fraud encompassing Auction Rate Securities, the SEC under Cox was reduced to a kangaroo court. Knowing full well that he and his regime at the SEC would largely be held in contempt, it appears that Cox attempted to salvage some degree of respect as he prepared to depart. How so? Bloomberg reports Cox Questioned Fannie, Freddie Oversight While At SEC:

Christopher Cox, in one of his last acts as Securities and Exchange Commission chairman, took Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s regulator to task in a letter questioning whether the agency was upholding its legal duty to “preserve and conserve” the mortgage companies’ assets.

Cox asked in the Jan. 16 letter to Federal Housing Finance Agency Director James Lockhart whether the government-sponsored enterprises were being pressed too hard to bolster U.S. housing markets at the expense of profits. As a member of an oversight board advising Lockhart, Cox urged Lockhart to develop an “exit strategy” from government conservatorship that would restore the companies’ finances.

Cox’s questioning of the motivation and practices of the FHFA eerily reminds us of the pressures applied to Freddie Mac CFO David Kellerman prior to his taking his life. Clearly, Cox and Kellerman were uncomfortable in the approach and practices promoted by Uncle Sam. As The New York Times reported on April 22, 2009, Reported Suicide is Latest Shock at Freddie Mac:

Mr. Kellermann was also working in a poisonous political atmosphere. In addition to taking criticism over the bonuses, he was recently involved in tense conversations with the company’s federal regulator over its routine financial disclosures, according to people close to those discussions who also spoke on condition of anonymity. Freddie Mac executives wanted to emphasize to investors that they believed the company was being run to benefit the government, rather than shareholders. The company’s regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Authority, had pushed to play down that language. Freddie Mac reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission that changes it had made in practices to help the government “have increased our expenses or caused us to forgo revenue opportunities.”

In a very similar fashion, Bloomberg today reports:

The letter from Cox, which hasn’t been made public, underscores the tension between Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s responsibilities to investors and government demands that they help end the worst housing crisis since the Great Depression. The issues facing the companies, saddled with seven consecutive quarters of losses totaling $150 billion, will be examined by a House panel tomorrow.

Certainly both Cox and Kellerman felt seriously troubled and conflicted between their roles and responsibilities and the goals of the government programs. The government programs have amounted to a massive redistribution of wealth to select American homeowners from investors, with the ultimate burden being assumed by American taxpayers.

Cox is trying to defend what is left of his reputation by shedding light on the magnitude of the “red sea” of embedded losses at Freddie and Fannie. Over and above that, the systemic risk posed by Freddie and Fannie has very real risk for other quasi-government agencies. Bloomberg addresses all of the possible consequences:

Failure to make Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac financially sound would impose expanded burdens on the Treasury and private debt markets because their $1.7 trillion in unsecured debt and $4 trillion in mortgage bonds are so widely held, he said. The government would bear responsibility even though the companies’ liabilities aren’t technically backed by its full faith and credit, he wrote.

The U.S. may be forced to assume the companies’ liabilities, increasing the $11.3 trillion in outstanding U.S. debt by about 50 percent and hampering the Treasury’s ability to borrow, Cox said.

If the government chose not to back Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s debt and they defaulted, Cox said there may be “significant impact on both the Treasury market as well as the agency market, including the Federal Home Loan Banks, the Farm Credit System and the Tennessee Valley Authority.

While Chris Cox has now been relegated to a punching bag in the pursuit of regulatory reform, he should be commended for drawing attention to the ugly underside of our financial system embodied by Freddie, Fannie, and their cousins FHLB, FCS, and TVA.

LD

The Red Sea

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 24th, 2009 11:26 AM |

While there is tremendous focus on the Bank Stress Tests, there remains limited focus overall on the centerpieces of our domestic housing finance industry. I am talking about Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and the Federal Home Loan Banks. Some have categorized these institutions as “black holes.” I believe a more appropriate designation would be The Red Sea as these institutions are awash in losses and continue to bleed money.

We may never know the circumstances surrounding the death of acting Freddie Mac CFO, David Kellerman, but there is a lot of focus by government officials on these institutions. There has been much less focus by private analysts. To that end, I am most grateful to Bloomberg’s David Reilly for reporting on Fannie Mae Creates Housing Mirage With Bum Loans.

Effectively, Fannie Mae is giving funds away to very high credit risk individuals who would have otherwise most likely already defaulted on their mortgages. As Reilly reports:

Give money away. That was a solution to the housing crisis mortgage giant Fannie Mae hit on last year.

Faced with growing numbers of homeowners unable to make mortgage payments, Fannie decided to fund loans to borrowers that were instant losers.

The point was to buy time. Even though those loans resulted in a $453 million loss, they helped keep troubled homeowners from defaulting. That meant Fannie for now didn’t have to make good on loan guarantees that may have cost it as much as $2.4 billion.

Make no mistake, this Fannie Mae program was also being utilized by Freddie Mac. Reports have come out that Freddie Mac’s Kellerman was pressured by Freddie’s accountants to improperly report their financials. In a similar vein, Fannie is playing another version of the “shell game” in order to buy time and forestall losses. (more…)

Let’s Meet the 2008 Bond Manager of the Year

Posted by Larry Doyle on April 8th, 2009 3:09 PM |

One of our Economic All-Stars is Bob Rodriguez of First Pacific Advisors. In the spirit of being totally equitable, I should have also posted Tom Atteberry’s name next to Bob’s. Bob and Tom were jointly named 2008 Morningstar Fixed Income Managers of the Year.

Bob is currently taking a leave of absence from First Pacific but Tom is equally outstanding. I had the pleasure of making his acquaintance while I worked at JP Morgan. Tom Atteberry is a pro’s pro. He spoke to Bloomberg earlier today and made these comments, which I took in longhand, so I am not quoting but I listened very carefully. Tom opined:

1. The current environment is the worst time to get into bonds. Why?

2. The creditworthiness of individuals and companies across the economy will only get worse from here and that deteriorating credit is not currently priced into the market.

3. U. S. government debt (Treasuries) represent NO value at current levels. If a fair expected rate of return is between 2-3% and a longer term rate of inflation is also between 2-3%, the rate on a 10 yr. maturity Treasury note should be in the vicinity of 5%. That note is currently trading at 2.85%. Don’t overpay for an asset just because somebody else is, in this case the Federal Reserve. (more…)

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