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Posts Tagged ‘defaults’

Debt/GDP: Ring of Fire

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 15th, 2010 11:45 AM |

All eyes within the markets and on the global financial landscape are currently fixated on Greece. Will it default? Will the EU bail out this island nation? If so, at what cost and on what terms? What is at the core of Greece’s fiscal nightmare? Excessive debt. So, what else is new?

Do not think that the excessive debt within Greece is the only nation on our global financial landscape facing this problem. What other nations do we need to keep on our radar? Bloomberg addresses this question in writing, Carney Says Investors Signal Stimulus ‘Limits’ as Deficits Grow:

Alongside Greece, Pacific Investment Management Co. identifies the U.S., Italy, France, Japan and the U.K. as economies sitting in a “ring of fire.” Each has debt above 90 percent of gross domestic product or the potential for it to rise there soon, slowing economic growth, Pimco said.

Deutsche Bank AG this month warned that the increased cost of insuring against debt defaults by peripheral European nations may be a “dress rehearsal” for the U.S. and U.K. Credit- default swaps on Greece’s debt rose to a record this month.

Living beyond one’s means is no recipe for future economic prosperity. While politicians may talk about the need for fiscal discipline, talk is cheap. Pork piled upon pork wrapped in more pork has stolen our children’s future. Washington may not appreciate the ring of fire, but Main Street is engulfed in it.

As we navigate our global economic landscape, we now need to make sure we pack fire retardant clothing in addition to other protective materials.

What a world.

LD

Nouriel Roubini Agrees with Jeff Gundlach

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 27th, 2009 11:18 AM |

Dr. Doom agrees with Wall Street’s top fixed income manger? Who are these individuals and on what do they agree?

Both these individuals are Economic All-Stars here at Sense on Cents (see left sidebar).  Nouriel Roubini (aka Dr. Doom) and Jeff Gundlach (aka Wall Street’s top fixed income manger) possess a contrarian view on the future of the U.S. dollar. While most analysts, economists, traders, investors, and speculators call for ongoing weakness in the greenback, Roubini and Gundlach believe the dollar will rebound and risk-based assets will retreat.

I addressed Gundlach’s views on this market driving principle on September 10th when I wrote “Jeff Gundlach of TCW Calling for Deflation and Dollar Rally”: (more…)

Washington Needs a New Housing Model

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 8th, 2009 12:04 PM |

Traders, strategists, analysts, economists, and politicians will always review models of past behaviors in an attempt to forecast future developments. In the process, the models are only as robust as the inputs. Many of the aforementioned individuals will become overly dependent on models. The risk in that process is that the models ‘work until they don’t work.’ As a result, programs, policies, and procedures are implemented that perhaps exacerbate rather than amend a situation. I believe this scenario is playing out in our housing market.

The breakdown in Washington’s housing model revolves around the newly developed phenomena known as “strategic mortgage defaults.” I highlighted this topic a few weeks back in writing, “Strategic Mortgage Defaults Have Major Implications for Markets and Economy.” We see more evidence of this new extension on our housing model in a report released by Reuters, The Flood of Foreclosures Shows No Sign of Ebbing:

The Center for Responsible Lending says foreclosures are on track to wipe out $502 billion in property values this year.

Investor's Real Estate Guide

That spillover effect from foreclosures is one reason why Celia Chen of Moody’s Economy.com says nationwide home prices won’t regain the peak levels they reached in 2006 until 2020.

In states hardest-hit by the housing bust, like Florida and California, the rebound will take until 2030, Chen predicted.

“The default rates, the delinquency rates, are still rising,” Chen told Reuters. “Rising joblessness combined with a large degree of negative equity are going to cause foreclosures to increase,” she added.

Anyone doubting that the recovery in U.S. real estate prices will be long and hard should take a look at Japan, Chen said.

Prices there are still off about 50 percent from the peak they hit 15 years ago.

(more…)

“My Mama Told Me . . .

Posted by Larry Doyle on February 28th, 2009 2:20 PM |

. . . You Better Shop Around.”  

What does that wonderful song from Smokey Robinson and the Miracles have to do with our economy? I’ll tie that in a bit later.

More and more people are inquiring of me how and why banks are making credit tighter both in terms of availability and in terms of rates charged.

This tightening of credit is due to the “crowding out effect” from dramatically increased government borrowing along with the actuality and likelihood of increased defaults across all consumer and corporate loans. In the face of those defaults, banks will set aside more capital in reserve to cushion those losses.

What is a consumer to do? There are two tactics:

1. Everything’s Negotiable which I highlighted in a post dated December 23, 2008. Talk to your bankers and/or credit providers. Put your banks and other credit providers in competition. Where does one start and how does one easily comparison shop? I’m glad you asked because that leads me to point #2.

2. Shop around (thank you, Smokey)!  Sense on Cents provides links via our Primers (in the right sidebar) for a look across the market to virtually every consumer credit need. Remember I have NO professional relationship with any of these entities. From borrowing needs to investing, with many stops in between, I hope these primers help you navigate the economic landscape going forward!!

And now, a trip down memory lane . . .

 






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