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HomeMidday Market Update . . . U-G-L-Y
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 5th, 2009 12:45 PM |
I had written that yesterday’s 2-3% upward move in the market was very likely a Dead Cat Bounce. Well, that cat is burrowing further into the ground as markets have more than fully retraced yesterday’s upward move and are making new lows. This type of price action, known as lower highs and lower lows, confirms bearish trends.
I hope our readers know that all financial information you could possibly want is on the Market Data tab on the Sense on Cents header. That resource provided by the Wall Street Journal is not only a great way to get a quick and comprehensive snapshot of all sectors of the market, but also a great way to keep your brokers and financial planners on their toes and working for you!!
Let’s take a quick look at the markets and then I will offer some commentary. (more…)
Could The FDIC Go Broke?
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 5th, 2009 9:45 AM |
In very short order, the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) has seen its reserves plummet from $50 billion to $18.9 billion at the end of 2008. At that pace and with the expectation of more bank failures, could this bedrock of our national banking system go broke? Well, FDIC’s Bair Says Insurance Fund Could Be Insolvent This Year. Is Sheila Bair unnecessarily sounding warning signals? Am I running to the bank to withdraw my money? No and no.
Sheila Bair is proactively managing expectations for all concerned, those being politicians, regulators, bankers, and consumers. In fact, if she did not highlight the current state of the FDIC reserve fund and expectations for future declines, she would not be fulfilling her obligations. (more…)
Warden Grows Veggies With Prisoners
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 4th, 2009 6:40 PM |
I highlighted back in mid-January the need to Let’s Really Question Ms. Schapiro. Now the chair of the SEC, Ms. Schapiro headed Finra and saw cases filed and fines collected decline by an estimated 35%. I was trying to make the case that Ms. Schapiro was nothing more than a warden growing vegetables in the same garden as the prisoners, given that Finra invested in hedge funds, fund of funds, private equity, and Auction Rate Preferred Securities. These ARPS were a scam perpetrated by Wall Street on clients. The bonds were marketed as cash surrogates with regularly scheduled auctions. When the auctions “failed,” the clients were left holding the bag in the form of the long term securities that ARPS truly are. OUCH!!
There are numerous individual customers still stuck with ARPS. I have spoken with an individual in my hometown, trying to help him publicize his case so that he can be made whole by a major bank that sold him the bonds. (more…)
Dead Cat Bounce
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 4th, 2009 3:00 PM |
The equity markets are up almost 3% today. Did we just put in a bottom? Can we at long last expect better price performance? Are we seeing a turnaround in the economy? Well, in Wall Street parlance today’s price action is known as a “dead cat bounce.” I had mentioned a day or two ago that a short term RSI (relative strength index) had fallen below 30%. Anytime that index gets that low, the market is susceptible to a bounce to force some short covering.
The Federal Reserve released a report, known as the Beige Book, and highlighted that they expect No Turnaround Soon in the economy.
Additionally, even though the major market averages are up 3%, why is it that the major capital providers are down significantly on the day? Look at the price changes for the following: (more…)
Sold Out
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 4th, 2009 1:12 PM |
Our loyal reader Fiscal Liberal shared a report from Wall Street Watch called Sold Out that I want to make sure is properly highlighted. In this report, I was taken by the quote on page 2 of the executive summary:
the financial sector showered campaign contributions on politicians from both parties, invested heavily in a legion of lobbyists, paid academics and think tanks to justify their preferred policy positions and cultivated a pliant media–especially a cheerleading business media complex.
That statement is a strong indictment of our entire system of government, commerce, academia, and media. It is not a stretch to formulate a tidy little conspiracy. The most important question, though, is who is looking out for the general public?
Thank you Fiscal Liberal for sharing the report. I strongly recommend this piece to everyone.
LD
How Wall Street and Washington Betrayed America!!
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 4th, 2009 11:03 AM |
While politicians, bankers, regulators, and commentators can and will point fingers as to where and how our system of financial oversight broke down, make no mistake it was due to too many people making and taking too much money!! I have highlighted the grotesque system of lobbying that has developed and corrupted our society in More Legalized Bribery.
We watch daily hearings on Capitol Hill in the spirit of doing what is right for our country. Please!! Spare me the nonsense and pandering. While collectively we deal with markets that are now down over 50%, the pols and the bankers have effectively robbed the bank and left the taxpayers with the bill to clean up the mess. Barron’s wrote a brief piece on this topic: how the Financial Sector Spent $5 Billion Lobbying Washington Over the Last Decade!!
It is high time we attach names and faces to those politicians and lobbyists who fed at this trough!!
LD
Overnight Trade
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 4th, 2009 6:31 AM |
Stocks in Asia rose on the heels of a report that China’s Wen May Announce New Stimulus Measures to Revive Growth
With China allocating this capital to a new stimulus, will that lead to lessened appetite for U.S. Treasury debt? In overnight trading, Treasuries Drop on Potential $60 Billion Note Sale Next Week.
In other market making news, the shine has come off gold somewhat. I had cautioned that I do not play in gold because of the large number of speculative traders. Gold dropped 3% overnight and is back to $910/oz.
The U.S. dollar continues to move higher versus the Japanese yen and is back close to par, 100 yen for $1 dollar.
I remain in the camp that the bond market will continue to be pressured by the global demand for capital.
One story that also bears watching is the “plundering” of Merrill Lynch. In breaking news the WSJ reports how Merrill Lynch paid a large number of individuals outrageous sums at the end of 2008. Merrill’s $10 Million Men highlights the details. If I am John Thain, I’m not sleeping well!!
LD
Mo’ Money…
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 3rd, 2009 2:48 PM |
There are a string of events in the market today that all highlight the need for entities to refinance debt and raise capital. Given the tightness of credit and the onerous terms being exacted within the bond market, many firms are massively capital constrained. These issues are global in nature. From our friends at Bloomberg, I offer the links to a number of these situations. In light of these types of situations, one does not need to be in a hurry to buy stocks. Additionally, given the demands for capital, I still maintain that rates are headed higher.
I will share with you some of the current problem situations getting serious attention:
1. GE Falls Below $7 on Concern Finance Unit May Need More Capital
2. Corporate Bond Losses Drive Investors ‘to the Bunker’
3. Metlife, Lincoln Sink as U.S. Stock Rout Increases Capital Need
4. German Real Estate Firms Owe Billions, Face Deadlines
LD
