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HomeCaveat Emptor
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 25th, 2009 8:49 AM |
The equity markets across all sectors have gotten off to a very rocky start for 2009 (down 15% on average). In the midst of that, a lot of institutions and individuals have fled to the safety of short term government funds, money market funds that now benefit from a government backstop, and other cash alternatives. On average, these investments pay Wall Street and fund managers perhaps anywhere from .1% to .3% of the assets being managed. Those fees will not make the managers rich anytime soon. How do they respond? Welcome to the world of “principal protected notes.”
These structured notes are marketed to track an underlying index (say the S&P 500) while guaranteeing no loss of principal. Wow. Sounds like a great product. Where do I sign? Well, hold on just a second. I am not stating that structured notes do not have some degree of merit, but one needs to be very cautious in fully understanding how these notes work before purchasing. (more…)
Capitalism’s New Clothes
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 24th, 2009 8:47 PM |
In the midst of this economic turmoil, I have heard many people question whether Americans will truly change their profligate ways. Will our belt tightening occur in the proper fashion? Will we instill disciplines in the most impactful and effective areas of our lives? Or is belt tightening for others?
Peter Singer, a Thought Leader, and another of our Economic All-Stars (see left sidebar), opines on these topics in Capitalism’s New Clothes. I appreciated his piercing review of whether we will truly display the character and integrity to bring about the changes that our society so badly needs.
I hope you enjoy this piece by Singer as well as the wealth of fine writing from around the globe and collectively delivered at Project Syndicate. Hopefully these great minds help you navigate your own economic landscape!
LD
Looking Back and Looking Forward
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 24th, 2009 2:41 PM |
John Mauldin, one of our Economic All-Stars (see sidebar on left), provides personal insights and perspectives that are truly cutting edge. Additionally, John has relationships that provide real clarity.
John Mauldin recently published commentary from Paul McCulley of Pimco and former Fed chairman Paul Volker. I had the good fortune of working with Mr. McCulley in the late ’90s at Union Bank of Switzerland. He is a true gem. Mr. Volker, like him or not, is regarded as one of the world’s leading central bankers. Their comments are both comprehensive and understandable as we look to navigate the economic landscape!
Mr. McCulley looks backward and reviews the following:
— the basics of our banking system
— a review of the “unregulated” shadow banking system
— the deleveraging process
— questions on the implementation of the government backstops, including the Term Asset-Backed Lending Facility to restart the consumer lending markets, and the public-private partnership. (more…)
How Does One Lose $125 Billion?
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 24th, 2009 6:00 AM |
It’s as easy as A-I-G…
While the government has pumped billions of dollars into Freddie, Fannie, the banks, the auto companies, and on and on it goes, the largest single government intervention into a private company centers on AIG. How are our investment dollars doing? Bloomberg.com reported:
“While I anticipated AIG would come back to the government begging for additional taxpayer dollars, I am disturbed that it has happened so soon,” said U.S. Representative Elijah Cummings, the Maryland Democrat who has criticized the insurer’s retention pay program, in a statement today.
The government saved AIG from collapse to prevent losses at banks that did business with the insurer.
“Counterparties around the world continue to have significant exposure to AIG, and market conditions continue to be fragile and sensitive to the potential disorderly failure of AIG,” the Fed said in a report in November.
(more…)
The Fine Print of Nationalization
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 23rd, 2009 11:27 AM |
Many leading economists and market mavens are calling for the formal nationalization of certain banking institutions in our
country. There are numerous arguments for and against nationalization. While many of these arguments are philosophical in nature, perhaps it is the fine print in CDS (credit derivatives) contracts that are the major hurdle.
In a communication with a European derivatives expert this morning, I received some truly enlightening color on this fine print. From what is being shared with me, the contractual agreement embodied in standard CDS transactions addresses the nationalization topic. What occurs?
(more…)
Cerberus Revisited
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 23rd, 2009 10:33 AM |
With so many dramatic events happening so quickly in the global economy, it can be daunting to keep things straight. Banking, housing, autos, regulatory structure, global trade, employment. The stream of dramatic developments is breathtaking. In times like these, I think it is critically important to remain very focused and disciplined. The ability to compartmentalize is vitally necessary.
In that vein, I find it very interesting that the lead editorial in today’s New York Times, Why Can’t Cerberus Foot The Bill, addresses the topic I broached on December 11th, Who and What is Cerberus…?.
Private equity is not supposed to benefit from taxpayer bailouts!!
Our public representatives need to work a little harder on the taxpayers’ behalf.
It’s called capitalism. Let it work.
LD
Breaking News…Citi “National Bank??”
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 22nd, 2009 10:24 PM |
UPDATED from late last night . . .
I just proposed on LD’s Dollars and Sense the idea that the markets would force Citigroup into the government’s hands. I thought it would occur within a month. In just checking the WSJ newswire it appears that executives from Citi are negotiating with the government as I write this. The fact that Citi is looking to broker a transaction currently is effectively an admisson on their part that they are technically insolvent. While the U.S. Eyes Large Stake in Citi, the common shareholders in Citi would be seriously diluted. How would creditors be treated? At this stage I would guess that creditors will be untouched. I would imagine that if this transaction occurs, other banking shares will trade down in sympathy.
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Audio Recording: NoQuarter Radio’s “Dollars and Sense with LD”
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 22nd, 2009 9:15 PM |
In case you missed Larry Doyle’s Sunday evening radio show, just click on the Play button below for the audio recording. Once the playback has started, you can fast forward or rewind to any portion of the show by clicking at any point along the play bar.
It was a fabulous show, featuring the insights of Lynn Marshall. Lynn has years of experience in investment banking, community banking and agriculture. In addition, I also spoke with John Moynihan, of BERG Associates, to discuss the dynamics in the world of offshore banking.
Sunday, February 22nd, 2009
NoQuarter Radio’s Dollars and Sense with LD
Tune In to Larry Doyle’s “Dollars and Sense” on No Quarter Radio
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 22nd, 2009 5:22 PM |
Please join us this evening from 8:00 to 9:00 p.m. ET on No Quarter Radio for LD’s Dollars and Sense. These are truly historic times in the global economy. Let’s “navigate the economic landscape” without the pandering or nonsense found elsewhere!
We have two very interesting guests joining us. Lynn Marshall has one of the most unique backgrounds in the world of finance today. How does one develop a background that includes senior level experience in investment banking, agriculture, and community banking? Think Lynn has some amazing perspectives on the economy and markets? Don’t miss him.
Additionally, in light of the developments at Stanford Financial, we are very happy to have John Moynihan return to our show to discuss the dynamics in the world of offshore banking. Find out more than you could ever imagine by talking to these enlightened experts on LD’s Dollars and Sense, starting at 8 p.m. ET.
What are your questions and comments for me? Please share your questions and thoughts by calling in to (347) 677-0792, and also join our live chat room, which I’ll start up about 10 minutes before the show begins!
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Leading Wall Street Analyst Speaks
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 22nd, 2009 4:29 PM |
I worked in the mortgage business on Wall Street for 23 years. During that time period I had the good fortune of developing relationships with some of the finest minds in this sector. While I do not know Laurie Goodman personally, I can tell you that there is no one individual in the market today whom investors follow more closely when it comes to developments in this space. While Ms. Goodman does work in a business that is actively engaged with investors, I have always appreciated her perspectives as being untainted by bias and merely reflecting an extremely professional and honest outlook.
What does Ms. Goodman think about President Obama’s plans for housing? It would appear that there may be all sorts of unintended consequences and misaligned incentives in this proposal. Regrettably plans that are well intended often do not necessarily achieve their desired results. I strongly recommend you read Mortgage Plan Aids Liars About Income to gain a fuller appreciation of this proposal.
LD
