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HomeThe Real Issues Behind the Foreclosure Crisis
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 13th, 2010 12:32 PM |
What is really going on in regard to the moratorium on mortgage foreclosures? A lot. Not all of it would qualify as the best of “sense on cents.” My thoughts include the following:
1. Can we now declare the HAMP (Making Home Affordable) program to be totally futile? How is it that everybody on Wall Street and in Washington is now promoting that the economy will be harmed if we forestall the mortgage foreclosure process? What the hell have the wizards in Washington been doing via HAMP and through Freddie and Fannie for the last 18 months? The simple fact is our policy makers have done everything in their power to inhibit the markets from working. Now, all of a sudden, they become proponents of free market principles? Were we born yesterday? Not here at Sense on Cents.
I have continually harangued our Washington politicos for not allowing the housing market to clear, and highlighted how forestalling that process would only prolong our economic pain. We’re feeling that pain now and will be for the foreseeable future.
2. Where are we going with this moratorium? (more…)
Looking Back to Look Forward: “What Will Happen to the American Dream?”
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 13th, 2010 8:07 AM |
How many of you reading this post feel as if life is becoming a blur, given the ongoing and unending avalanche of troubling economic news? I sense this reality becoming more and more prevalent throughout our society. I also sense that people lose track of both time and developments. Keeping a sense of balance and perspective during these challenging times is critically important. To this end, I want to go back one year and review what I wrote then in the hope it will bring these badly needed virtues into focus today. On October 12, 2009, I wrote What Will Happen to the American Dream?
The pursuit of a better life and greater opportunities have driven successive generations since the founding of our nation. Will that dream live on? Will future generations have a chance to live a better life than the current generation or recent generations? (more…)
Beggar Thy Neighbor
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 5th, 2010 12:17 PM |
So much has happened along our economic landscape over the last two to three years that it is hard to weigh the magnitude and depth of many of the developments. That said, the simple fact is the tectonic plates underlying our global economy have shifted massively as a result of the enormous financial earthquake of 2008. While global governments and central banks have performed varying degrees of triage to save states, nations, and regions, the movements of the plates are continuing along under the surface. To that end, what is the economic reality now bubbling above the surface given the shift in our tectonic plates below? Let’s navigate and review the reality known as Beggar Thy Neighbor, defined by our friendly Investing primer as,
An international trading policy that utilizes currency devaluations and protective barriers to alleviate a nation’s economic difficulties at the expense of other countries. While the policy may help repair an economic hardship in the nation, it will harm the country’s trading partners, worsening its economic status. (more…)
“The Giant Elephant in The Room”
Posted by Larry Doyle on September 21st, 2010 12:02 PM |
What is holding back our economy? Why isn’t there more credit available in our banking system?
I have answered these questions numerous times over the last two years BUT many in Washington pretend not to know the answer and pander to their constituencies in the process. Regular readers of Sense on Cents are well aware that the books of our banks–especially our largest money center banks–remain chock-filled with loans that are being valued far in excess of what they are truly worth. Let’s navigate.
I first addressed issues within the second mortgage and HELOC (home equity line of credit) space in Fall of 2008 (Sense on Cents/Second Mortgages). Here we are a full two years later and America still has not received a straight answer and a full accounting by the banks or their regulators as to this “sinkhole” on their books and in our economy.
Let’s dive into this hole, get a little dirty, and again expose the issues within this sector. (more…)
“Beware of Pied Pipers Touting Quick Fixes”
Posted by Larry Doyle on September 21st, 2010 5:51 AM |
Although our elected officials in Washington and around our country typically have foresight that lasts no longer than 24 months (every other November that is), the simple fact is our economy runs in much longer cycles and has a much deeper foundation than that.
To that end, how does America reconcile an economy which is fundamentally broken while simultaneously electing officials who will not make promises that can’t be kept but promise sacrifices which must be borne? If these officials can get elected at all (a big “IF,” mind you!!), perhaps they can get America to read and appreciate the sharp mind of an economist such as the Sense on Cents All Star Kenneth Rogoff. (more…)
Jonathan Weil Reviews “The Truman Economy”
Posted by Larry Doyle on September 20th, 2010 7:13 AM |
What can we believe? Can we believe the economic reports put forth by our government? Can we believe the quarterly reports put forth by our financial institutions? Can we believe the price action in our markets? While “the market is the market,” has our country ever experienced a period in which there is such a massive disconnect between the real economy and what Uncle Sam has generated?
I am often reminded of the fabulous hit movie, The Truman Show, when thinking of our current economy and markets. How much of our economy is based on reality and what is merely staged? Bloomberg’s Jonathan Weil once again distinguishes himself in providing an “economic and market reality check” of our ‘Uncle Sam’ economy circa 2010. Weil writes, Zombie Banks Have Us Right Where They Want Us:
Two years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and what rightfully should have been the death of American International Group, U.S. capital markets face a crucial question.
How long will it take before we see some semblance of robust free-market capitalism return, where the value of an asset is based on what bona fide market participants will pay for it, the cost to borrow money is based on a company’s fundamental financial strength rather than its ability to access a government safety net, and corporations are free to fail no matter what their size? (more…)
“Is There Anybody In There or Out There?”
Posted by Larry Doyle on September 19th, 2010 7:08 AM |
In light of the ongoing decline in equity volumes, I found a short piece in this weekend’s Wall Street Journal to be of special interest. Jonathan Cheng writes, Hello, Is There Anybody In There?
Are trading volumes ever coming back? With options expirations and index rebalancing on the agenda, today could be a decent one for trading volumes, which Peter Boockvar of Miller Tabak notes haven’t hit the 5 billion shares mark in NYSE Composite volume since July 16. Mr. Boockvar cites “confusion” as the culprit, given all the economic uncertainties facing investors.
Rick Bensignor, chief market strategist at Execution Noble, however, chalks it up to something perhaps more fundamental: there aren’t many investors out there to begin with, which he says are likely to keep volumes anemic for the foreseeable future. Here’s his tally: (more…)
Without Freedom of Information, Who Will Keep the Regulators Honest?
Posted by Larry Doyle on September 16th, 2010 7:36 AM |
Information is everything.
Without access to information, how can we ever learn the full and true stories currently buried beneath our financial and economic landscape? Unearthing information through every means possible is a tedious — but necessary — pursuit if we are ever to learn our mistakes and failings of the past so that we can improve our economic standing in the future.
While those in Washington would maintain that they are charged with unearthing this information, there is little doubt that the American populace at large has little confidence in the rigor of that pursuit. The greatest of Jesuit principles instilled in me from my days at Holy Cross is the ‘never ending pursuit of the truth.’ That pursuit brings us today to a story which has received significant coverage here at Sense on Cents, but not nearly enough coverage elsewhere. Let’s navigate as The Wall Street Journal writes, SEC Looks to Allay Fears on FOIA Limits: (more…)
Lots of Laughs and ‘Sense on Cents’ With New York’s Bravest
Posted by Larry Doyle on September 14th, 2010 7:25 AM |
How often do we not remember what we did last week, while never forgetting the jokes told and the 3-putt greens in the midst of friends at a charitable golf outing? I was fortunate yesterday to play in a local charity golf outing with some of New York’s Bravest. While the funds raised were not for the benefit of the NYFD itself, the fact that I was able to spend time in their company was awesome. Reminiscing about past golf outings while simultaneously making new memories which we can share in the coming years was spectacular.
As has happened in the past, and given that this outing occurs shortly after 9-11, our conversation included recollections of that fateful day. The depth of their feelings and memories of so many lost friends and fallen comrades are truly palpable. May we never forget. I am not writing today to rekindle those memories, but I do feel compelled to pay respect to all those members of the NYFD and NYPD who made the ultimate sacrifice that day.
While the best memories from a day like yesterday are from the interaction with The Bravest, other members of our respective groups are also top shelf and actively involved in the markets. While there is plenty that occurs on a golf course that is best left on the golf course, in the midst of lost balls and missed putts, there were plenty of comments and opinions on our markets and economy. While I lost my share of golf balls, I picked up plenty of insights including: (more…)
