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HomeJoin Me Tonight at 8PM for NoQuarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 7th, 2009 7:32 AM |
UPDATE: The show has concluded, but you can listen to a recording in its entirety by clicking the Play button on the audio player below. Once the playback has started, you can fast forward or rewind to any portion of the show by clicking at any point along the play bar.
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Please join me Sunday evening from 8-9 p.m. ET for NoQuarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle. I believe we are now entering the next stage of the Brave New World of the Uncle Sam Economy. As we navigate the trails in this leg of our journey, our primary focus will be on interest rates. We experienced a dramatic spike in global rates over the course of the last few weeks. What do these spikes mean? Will they persist? Do we need to “lighten the weight of our packs” to successfully traverse these hills and valleys? Do the moves in rates indicate that “inflation” is just around the bend?
Listen to NQR’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle tonight from 8-9PM as I address all of these angles. Additionally, I am thrilled to have Luke Fry of 12th Street Capital join me to address these topics and developments in and around the world of mortgage-backed securities. Luke is a senior salesman at 12th Street Capital, a leading broker-dealer with untold expertise in the mortgage business. Prior to 12th Street, Mr. Fry was a Managing Director at Knight Libertas, LLC where he was responsible for providing market insight and analysis in mortgage and asset-backed structured products to a wide range of clients that included hedge funds, money managers, insurance companies and banks. Mr. Fry was hired as the first salesperson on the ABS/MBS desk at Libertas Partners and helped expand the group to over 12 salespeople while seeing the company through a merger in July 2008 with Knight Capital Group, the largest U.S. equity market maker. (more…)
Let’s Look Under the Washington Mutual Rock
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 28th, 2009 1:02 PM |
Many people may think Washington Mutual is just another large financial conglomerate that has since gone into thrift heaven via its takeover by JP Morgan. While WaMu is now part of the JPM franchise, it continues to send very real signs which provide great insight as we navigate the economic landscape.
Thank you to our friends at 12th Street Capital for highlighting a release put forth yesterday by Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JP Morgan. As the Financial Times reports, JP Morgan Warns on Credit Card Woes:
Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase chief executive, warned on Wednesday that loss rates on the credit card loans of Washington Mutual, the troubled bank acquired last year by JPMorgan, could climb to 24 per cent by the year end.
In the past, credit card loss rates have tracked the unemployment rate but that relationship has been breaking down for more troubled credit card portfolios, such as the $25.9bn in WaMu credit card loans.
At the end of the first quarter, 12.63 per cent of the WaMu credit card loans were deemed uncollectable by JPMorgan. The bank estimates that figure could reach 18 to 24 per cent by the end of 2009, depending on economic conditions.
The initial question begs as to how and why the credit performance of WaMu’s cardholders could be that much worse than the industry as a whole. For those unfamiliar with Washington Mutual, the institution made a failed attempt to penetrate the Wall Street fortress via leveraging its credit origination platform. WaMu was one of the most aggressive lenders across the spectrum of products. As I wrote back on November 12th in The Wall Street Model Is Broken….and Won’t Soon Be Fixed:
At the turn of the century, the Wall Street model was a pure “originate to distribute” model with little to no residual risk on behalf of the originators or underwriters. When there is no residual risk, those who “WIN” are the players that can purely process the most volume. Well, how does one get volume? Lower the credit standards, put fewer restrictions on borrowers, little to no covenants (NINA Loans: no income, no asset check).
Washington Mutual was the poster child for aggressive, if not irresponsible, lending. When their distribution capabilities ceased, the institution was left “holding the bag.” That bag was filled with credit cards now projected by the TOP banker on the street to default at twice the norm. What more can we learn in this process? Let’s dig deeper. (more…)
Bank Stress Tests: Vigorous or Sham? Let’s Review HELOC Losses
Posted by Larry Doyle on May 20th, 2009 9:26 AM |
If you want to know just how inaccurate government loss assumptions were in the recently released Bank Stress Tests, let’s enter the world of HELOCs (Home Equity Lines of Credit).
Before we address loss statistics on HELOCs, let’s go to the Federal Reserve for a clearcut definition of the product. What is a Home Equity Line of Credit?
A home equity line of credit is a form of revolving credit in which your home serves as collateral. Because a home often is a consumer’s most valuable asset, many homeowners use home equity credit lines only for major items, such as education, home improvements, or medical bills, and choose not to use them for day-to-day expenses.
With a home equity line, you will be approved for a specific amount of credit. Many lenders set the credit limit on a home equity line by taking a percentage (say, 75%) of the home’s appraised value and subtracting from that the balance owed on the existing mortgage.
This mortgage product, often a second mortgage, developed as an enormously popular vehicle for homeowners to tap the equity in their home, especially during the period of significant home price appreciation earlier this decade. Make no mistake, though, it is just another form of leverage. (more…)
Let’s Make a Deal…or Maybe Not
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 7th, 2009 11:50 AM |
Two conflicting stories struck me in today’s WSJ. The gist of these stories highlights how and why private enterprise would not want to have Uncle Sam as a partner, unless absolutely necessary. Let me share the stories with my thoughts:
1. Bailout Man Turns the Screws
I fully respect a tough and honest negotiator. A person who deals in the best interest of his shareholders represents the essence of capitalism.
Regrettably, our economy has been littered with executives at a wide array of companies who have negotiated more on behalf of select constituencies than shareholders. Plenty of executives have not played by either the spirit or the letter of the law.
Any negotiator needs to understand their counterparty and their goals. Additionally, the ability to adapt is critical. Without sacrificing principles, a level of intransigence can often render negotiations worthless. To that end, it does seem as if the government is learning some of these lessons.
I do not pretend these negotiations are easy but, given that not every counterparty is the same, I believe slightly different tactics must be utilized as appropriate. Otherwise, no matter how compelling a deal may appear, counterparties may back away from the table. To wit . . .
2. Investors Back Away From Fed’s TALF
Please recall how the equity markets surged 5% on the day Secretary Geithner announced the plans for the TALF and the PPIP. These programs are getting off to a very slow start. I just received some real time color from my friends at 12th Street Capital in regard to the TALF:
I’m not really sure why the government can’t get their act together and do multiple fundings during the month, but I guess I shouldn’t be surprised given that these were the same people that thought all of this paper should just trade on an exchange. If they fail to make this program work within a realistic market dynamic they run the risk of this falling by the wayside.
LD
How Long Can You Tread Water?
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 26th, 2009 11:10 AM |
The other day, I provided a cursory overview of the details embedded in the recently proposed Public-Private Investment Partnership, Will Banks Truly Sell these Toxic Assets?
The main point I tried to highlight in that piece was the need for true price discovery for these toxic assets. A loyal reader provided tremendous insight in highlighting that the PPIP needs to assure that sellers are truly at arm’s length from buyers to insure that the price discovery process is real and fair.
There are potential concerns with this price discovery process highlighted in my piece Send in the Clown. Are the bank portfolios, located within the largest banks needing to sell toxic assets, attempting to prop the market higher? (more…)
Housing Index Revisited
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 18th, 2009 1:11 PM |
A week or so ago, I introduced two indexes that track the outlook for housing in our country. The S&P/Case-Shiller Index is released on a monthly basis. The ABX is an index that can be traded daily by institutional money managers and thus allows them to reflect their opinions on the outlook for housing. The ABX is a very broadly defined index that tracks housing by the underlying year of origination of the mortgage.
Yesterday, the monthly housing starts number surprisingly jumped 22%. The government program TALF (Term Asset-Backed Lending Facility) to restart the consumer finance markets is set to launch next week. Hopefully that program will bring added liquidity to our consumer finance markets and support housing as well. The mortgage modification program to support housing is underway. (more…)
A Virtual Smorgasbord
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 2nd, 2009 4:24 PM |
On the heels of the news about AIG, Berkshire, and HSBC, the equity markets have found no support today and are down 4%. While the malaise of the markets has much of the focus, let’s review a few other items that I see on today’s menu:
1. In regard to AIG, current CEO Edward Liddy and former CEO Hank Greenberg have started some public feuding over the nature of AIG’s problems. Greenberg is trying to make the case that the risks underwritten at AIG occurred after his departure. Liddy responded that the culture, the compensation system, and the division housing the bulk of AIG’s risk all developed under Greenberg. Wow!! When our country is screaming for leadership, we have senior executives playing the blame game and pointing fingers. How pathetic!! (more…)
What’s Driving the Market Lower Today?
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 2nd, 2009 9:50 AM |
Stock markets are expected to open lower by another 1.5% on the open this morning. What’s driving them lower….again?
1. News that AIG reported an actual 4th quarter 2008 loss of $61 billion. The government will inject ANOTHER $30 billion into this black hole. WHY? Very simply because AIG is the largest holder of CDS (credit default swaps) that serve as insurance for a number of banks and money managers. These CDS cover a wide array of assets but primarily the sub-prime mortgage space. Kevin Doyle of 12th Street Capital, and a guest here on my weekly No Quarter Radio program back in early January, shares that the index that tracks the sub-prime market is at its lows. No surprise there.
While the various media outlets are highlighting this story now, I wrote extensively about AIG and How Does One Lose $125 Billion? on February 24th. I not only wrote about the losses, but also delved into the culture that developed over the years at AIG under Hank Greenberg. Not a pretty picture and seemingly not a lot of integrity in that company. Now we pay. (more…)
