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Obama Socialized Housing Policy: If At First You Don’t Succeed . . . Try, Try, Again

Posted by Larry Doyle on November 30th, 2009 4:13 PM |

The fact that the Obama administration is reticent to release data pertaining to completed mortgage modifications speaks volumes as to the lack of success of this initiative. With almost a third of American homeowners now ‘underwater’ on their mortgages, Obama and team are sticking to their game plan to modify mortgages. Details of Obama’s revised game plan can be accessed at MakingHomeAffordable.gov:

The U.S. Department of the Treasury and Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) today kick off a nationwide campaign to help borrowers who are currently in the trial phase of their modified mortgages under the Obama Administration’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) convert to permanent modifications. The modification program, which has helped over 650,000 borrowers, is part of the Administration’s broader commitment to stabilize housing markets and to provide relief to struggling homeowners and is a primary focus of financial stability efforts moving forward. Roughly 375,000 of the borrowers who have begun trial modifications since the start of the program are scheduled to convert to permanent modifications by the end of the year.

375,000? I will take the under on that. Why? As I highlighted on October 29th in my commentary “Mortgage Modifications: Statistically Insignificant”, up to that point a whopping 1,080 mortgages had been successfully and permanently modified. Policy makers believe 374,000 mortgages will be successfully and permanently modified in the last ten weeks of the year. Who’s zooming who? Would they like to place a wager on that? I’ll give odds. (more…)

Obama Administration Won’t Release Mortgage Modification Figures; Sense on Cents Already Did

Posted by Larry Doyle on November 11th, 2009 2:50 PM |

No news is good news, right?

Well, that may work in raising teenagers but when it comes to public policy in general and housing policy specifically the American public deserves to know what is going on. Why? American taxpayers are picking up the tab, that’s why.

Regrettably, our wizards in Washington are often reluctant to provide the transparency the American public deserves.

I witness this dynamic again today in reviewing a story on the mortgage modification program. The Wall Street Journal puts a positive spin on developments in the mortgage modification process by writing, Mortgage Program Gathers Steam After Slow Start:

The Obama administration said Tuesday that its mortgage-modification program has enrolled one in five eligible homeowners, a sign the effort is gathering momentum after a slow start. But so far few of those trial modifications are turning into permanent fixes.

The Making Home Affordable program has begun trial modifications for more than 650,000 borrowers since it was launched in February, according to data released Tuesday by the Treasury Department. That amounts to 20% of those eligible for the program. More than 217,000 trial modifications, or roughly one-third, were under way in just two states: California and Florida.

The program provides financial incentives to mortgage companies and investors to reduce loan payments to affordable levels. The Treasury Department said the program was on track to meet its goal of offering help to between 3 million and 4 million borrowers over the next several years. Those who are 60 days or more delinquent on their mortgages or at risk of imminent default are eligible.

Whether the program will ultimately be judged a success will depend upon how many trial modifications become permanent. To receive a permanent fix, borrowers must be current on their payments in the trial program after three months and submit a hardship affidavit and other documents.

The administration won’t release figures on completed modifications until December…

Won’t release figures on completed modifications until December? Why not? What’s up with that? (more…)

Sleepless in Seattle . . . FHLB-Seattle, That Is

Posted by Larry Doyle on November 10th, 2009 4:28 PM |

Having broached expectant difficulties in the Federal Home Loan Bank system last spring, I try to keep a close eye out for news of note on this largely unknown – but critically important – system of banks. To a large extent, the FHLBs have been flying under the radar despite some serious problems within their investment portfolios and loan books.

High five to KD for pointing out that the folks at FHLB-Seattle probably are not getting much sleep these days. Why is that? Insufficient capital will do it to you every time. As the American Banker offers, FHLB Seattle Still “Undercapitalized,” Regulator Says:

The Federal Housing Finance Agency said late Friday that the Federal Home Loan Bank of Seattle remains “undercapitalized” and will not be allowed to redeem or repurchase stock or pay dividends.

At the end of 2004, as the bank struggled with the size of its mortgage purchase program, it said members who wish to redeem their stock must wait five years before receiving their money.

But with that time period almost up, the Finance Agency said it would not allow the bank to begin redeeming stock, fearing it could lower its capital base. (more…)

Mortgage Modifications: Statistically Insignificant

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 29th, 2009 4:16 PM |

How meaningful is the mortgage modification program? What have we gotten for the billions committed to this initiative? Are you sitting down?

For frame of reference, the U.S. Census Housing Data indicates there were 110.3 million occupied housing units in the country in 2007. Of that number, 68.1% were owner-occupied. Simple math tells us 75.1 million people owned their home at that point.

Various studies indicate that approximately one of every three homeowners are now ‘underwater’ (mortgage balance exceeds home value). Many analysts believe that number is headed higher. A Deutsche Bank analyst projects one of every two homeowners will ultimately be ‘underwater.’

Simple math indicates that approximately 25 million homeowners are underwater. What is being done to support these homeowners? Uncle Sam’s primary program to support this growing problem is the ‘mortgage modification’ program. This program is supposed to be driven by mortgage servicers. How is it working? Let’s navigate. (more…)

Housing’s Catch-22

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 12th, 2009 9:28 AM |

What is the optimal policy to deal with our ongoing housing crisis? Should Uncle Sam  continue to throw more money at mortgage modifications? Should banks be compelled to implement a principal reduction program? Should Uncle Sam step in and subsidize the principal writedown involved in a principal reduction program? Would that be the mother of all socialized housing programs? Let’s navigate and address these topics knowing full well that none of these questions have any easy answers.

I witness further evidence again this morning of a continued increase in home foreclosures amidst the prime mortgage space. The Wall Street Journal highlights this ongoing development in writing, Foreclosures Grow in Housing Market’s Top Tiers:

The report shows that foreclosures, after declining earlier this year, began to accelerate in the late spring and that more expensive homes have more recently accounted for a growing share of all foreclosures. “The slope of that curve in recent months is much sharper than it was recently,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow. Rising foreclosures among more-expensive homes could create added pressure for a housing market that has shown signs of stabilizing in recent months as sales of lower-priced homes pick up.

[Moving Up chart]

Foreclosures are rising in more expensive markets as home values in those areas fall, leaving more homeowners with mortgages that exceed the value of their properties. Prime loans accounted for 58% of foreclosure starts in the second quarter, up from 44% last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Subprime mortgages accounted for one-third of foreclosure starts, down from one-half last year.

The prime category includes so-called exotic mortgages that were increasingly used to buy more expensive homes, including interest-only mortgages that allowed borrowers to defer principal payments during an initial period. Borrowers often aren’t able to refinance out of these products because the drop in home values has left them with little equity in their homes.

Default rates are particularly high and expected to rise on option adjustable-rate mortgages, which allow borrowers to make minimum payments that may not cover the interest due. Monthly payments can increase to sharply higher levels after five years or when the outstanding balance reaches a certain level. A study by Fitch Ratings found that 46% of option ARMs were 30 days past due last month, even though just 12% of such loans have reset to higher monthly payments.

Zillow estimated that nearly one in four homes with mortgages was worth less than the value of the property at the end of June. Mr. Humphries said he didn’t expect to see foreclosure volumes level off until later in 2010. (LD’s emphasis)

With the waves of foreclosures not abating, Uncle Sam’s plans to merely modify mortgages is proving largely insignificant in supporting the overall housing market. Homeowners are clearly showing a strong inclination to default on their mortgages when they are ‘underwater.’ Thus, how does Uncle Sam help people get ‘above water?’ Compel banks to reduce the principal balance of the mortgage. Will they do it? Not quickly, as a principal reduction would imply an immediate hit to the banks’ capital. (more…)

Cash Strapped Seniors Beware!!

Posted by Larry Doyle on October 6th, 2009 2:53 PM |

Tapping home equity was a prime driver in leading us into our current economic crisis. The same dynamic with an added twist may very well be setting the table for another round of fraud and accompanying problems.

I refer to the housing finance product known as a reverse mortgage. This product is targeted primarily at our senior citizens who are cash strapped. Rest assured many a mortgage banker who is currently hard pressed to generate fees and earnings will attempt to take Grandma and Grandpa ‘to the hoop’ with this product.

While many quality professionals within the mortgage industry will work to highlight the potential pitfalls with reverse mortgages, do not think for a second that those messages will make their way to every customer.

Bloomberg highlights that our legal profession is starting to take notice of this ‘racket’ and writes, Reverse Mortgages May Be ‘Subprime Revisited’:

Reverse mortgages may be the next subprime crisis, according to the National Consumer Law Center.

Some of the same U.S. lenders that helped drive the real estate boom with loans to home buyers who couldn’t afford the payments are now targeting seniors, the center said. Brokers, who are given financial incentives to sell the loans, may be making misleading claims to potential customers, according to a report released today by the Boston-based NCLC.

“This market is designed to serve seniors, so when we find abuses cropping up and migrating from the subprime market to the senior market, that sounds an especially loud warning bell,” said Rick Jurgens, an advocate at the National Consumer Law Center, who contributed to the report.

Reverse mortgages enable people aged 62 and over who are looking for extra cash to use the equity in their homes and receive lump-sum payments, periodic checks, a line of credit, or a combination of the three. Lenders are repaid from the sale of the home when the borrowers die or move.

The former maximum payout for reverse mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration was $417,000. That limit was increased temporarily to $625,500 in February. Origination fees are capped at $6,000. In 2008, more than 100,000 seniors used reverse mortgages to tap over $17 billion in home equity, according to the Housing and Urban Development Department.

I implore anybody who reads this commentary to fully explore the implied mortgage rate and home appraisal values utilized with reverse mortgages.

Any questions, please do not hesitate to ask or to utilize the mortgage primers (in the left sidebar) here at Sense on Cents to learn more about this product.

LD

More Socialized Housing Continues Assault on Capitalism

Posted by Larry Doyle on September 28th, 2009 8:43 AM |

Is there any doubt that the heart of our economic crisis centered on the mispricing of risk in a wide array of mortgage products? If that is in fact the case — and it is — then why does Uncle Sam continue to go down this road? In so doing, the ‘old man’ will only prolong the current housing crisis and likely promote another one as well. Why? A borrower’s ability to access funding at levels not correlated with that borrower’s ability to repay serves as an enormous incentive for the borrower to take undue risk. Inevitably, these greater risks will lead to greater losses. Who will absorb the losses? Ultimately, you and me. Where do we witness more of this socialized housing? Let’s navigate our way into the world of municipal housing finance.

Bloomberg details growing developments on this topic in writing, State Housing Agencies in U.S. Said Slated for Treasury Help:

State housing agencies in the U.S. would get help in providing mortgages to low-income borrowers under a U.S. Treasury Department program to provide new liquidity and purchase mortgage bonds, Treasury officials said.

The program would provide as much as $15 billion in fresh liquidity for as long as three years and would purchase as much as $20 billion in tax-exempt mortgage bonds issued by state- sponsored housing finance agencies through the end of this year, a person familiar with the matter said. The program may be announced as early as Sept. 30, said the person, who didn’t want to be named because the plans haven’t been made public.

A few questions, answers, and comments:

1. Given the enormous rally in the equity and bond markets, where is the private capital to support this initiative? There is plenty of private capital along with excess capital sitting at banks, BUT that capital would only lend itself at rates commensurate with the risks embedded in the value of the real estate and the borrowers.

2. The housing finance agencies’ inclination to ask Uncle Sam for financing and Uncle Sam’s willingness to provide it is nothing more than a socialization of this segment of the domestic housing market. How do we know? What entities will purchase the debt backing these financings?

Bloomberg highlights:

The Treasury effort would be administered by federally controlled mortgage-finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which would also purchase the bonds, the person said. Those purchases would provide enough financing to restart and to fund the state home loan programs through the end of next year, according to the person.

Oh what fun. Uncle Sam will continue to bury more mispriced debt in the books of the current wards of the state, Freddie and Fannie.

3. Why would private investors be reluctant to more aggressively provide financing to these municipal housing finance agencies? We only need to revisit the fact that virtually all of these agencies utilized a form of auction-rate security known as a VRD (variable rate debt note), which in layman’s terms is nothing short of a form of Ponzi-type financing. Investors remain stuck with a tremendous amount of this debt.

If a borrower burned you on a financing, wouldn’t you increase the rate for future borrowings?

One final comment. Socialized housing finance will certainly dissuade private enterprise from entering any part of this market for a protracted period.

Capitalism remains under assault.

LD

Related Commentary

$35 Billion Slated for Local Housing
by Deborah Solomon
Wall Street Journal; September 28, 2009

What Does the Fed’s Statement Mean for Mortgage Rates?

Posted by Larry Doyle on September 23rd, 2009 3:40 PM |

The Fed’s statement at 2:15pm had no real surprises, but there is one development that bears comment — especially for anybody looking to finance or refinance a home.  The Fed stated:

To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt.  The Committee will gradually slow the pace of these purchases in order to promote a smooth transition in markets and anticipates that they will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010.  As previously announced, the Federal Reserve’s purchases of $300 billion of Treasury securities will be completed by the end of October 2009.

What does this mean? The Fed’s program of buying mortgage-backed securities to support housing was scheduled to end December 31st. It will now be extended through the end of the first quarter 2010. The fact is, though, the Fed is not purchasing more MBS (mortgage-backed securities) than the previously advertised $1.25 trillion. The Fed is merely lengthening the time over which it buys those MBS.

Add it up, and the largest buyer of MBS in the market will have a lessened impact because its purchasing power is being diluted via this extension. As a result, overall conforming mortgage rates will not likely come down much if Treasury rates were to continue to decline. By the same token, if Treasury rates were to rise, mortgage rates will likely rise at an even faster rate.

Recall that just the other day Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf shared that his bank was not purchasing any MBS for its own portfolio nor was it retaining any of its own mortgage originations. Why? From a pure relative value standpoint, MBS are overvalued. Why? The Fed has effectively been overpaying to buy MBS in an attempt to get mortgage rates down and support housing.

With the end of the Fed’s purchase program on the horizon, mortgage rates will likely start to move higher in order to attract other potential investors.

What is a homeowner to do? Don’t wait to refinance thinking that rates are going to come down much further.

LD

Strategic Mortgage Defaults Have Major Implications for Economy and Markets

Posted by Larry Doyle on September 21st, 2009 11:29 AM |

The Brave New World of the Uncle Sam economy has brought our economy and markets into realms very rarely seen or experienced. One of those realms which has received very little coverage, but will have major implications for the economy and markets going forward, is “strategic mortgage defaults.” What are strategic mortgage defaults and what will be the growing impact of this phenomena? Let’s navigate.

High five to KD of 12th Street Capital for bringing this development to our attention. The Los Angeles Times profiles this very troubling slope on our economic landscape in writing, Homeowners Who ‘Strategically Default’ on Loans a Growing Problem:

With foreclosures, delinquencies and loan losses at record levels, strategic defaults and walkaways are among the hottest subjects in residential real estate finance. Unlike in earlier academic studies, Experian and Wyman could tap into credit files over extended periods to identify patterns associated with strategic defaults.

The number of strategic defaults is far beyond most industry estimates — 588,000 nationwide during 2008, more than double the total in 2007. They represented 18% of all serious delinquencies that extended for more than 60 days in last year’s fourth quarter.

Strategic mortgage defaults are nothing more than a very calculated financial maneuver primarily by people with high credit scores. These people are literally walking away from their homes – and the mortgages on those homes – with little to no warning or indication of stress typically identified by increased delinquencies on the mortgage payment or other credit payments.

Why are people doing this? To fully understand the reasoning behind people strategically defaulting, we need to understand why people bought these homes and took out these mortgages in the first place. Over the last decade, many people purchased homes, including their primary residence, for investment purposes as much as for shelter and protection. As with other investments, these high credit and financially savvy people are assessing the market value of their home relative to their carrying costs (mortgage payments, taxes, utilities, etc) and making the decision that they are financially better off walking away from the property and mortgage than continuing to make the payments.

Is there a moral failure in this practice, especially on behalf of those individuals who do have the financial wherewithal to make their payments? Perhaps, but we should not kid ourselves that people bring their morals – or lack thereof – into their financial affairs. (more…)

Uncle Sam’s Continuation of the Housing Bubble

Posted by Larry Doyle on September 2nd, 2009 8:57 AM |

With housing prices down 30+% on average over the last few years, is Uncle Sam blowing fresh air into the housing balloon and actually creating another housing bubble? I believe that’s exactly what is happening.

If you are scratching your head and think I am off base with my assertion, please navigate this path along our economic landscape with me.

What drove the housing bubble? Cheap rates and undisciplined lending from the private sector. What added to the bubble? The internal ‘hedge fund’ portfolios of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

What is perpetuating the housing bubble if not creating another mini-bubble of sorts? Cheap rates and undisciplined lending directly from Uncle Sam or supported by Uncle Sam. What is adding to this bubble? Those same internal portfolios at Freddie and Fannie.

What entities within Uncle Sam’s domain are providing the cheap rates and undisciplined lending?

1. The Federal Housing Administration ( FHA-insured loans are packaged into GNMA securities, which have the explicit backing of Uncle Sam)

2. The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program in which it has purchased hundreds of billions in mortgage-backed securities with authority to purchase a total of $1 trillion+ in MBS is also blowing fresh air into the balloon.

3. Freddie and Fannie are also supporting the bubble by providing fresh capital via their portfolios.

People may say that Uncle Sam had to provide this capital because the private sector would not. In fact, The Wall Street Journal makes that very assertion this morning in writing, Industry Seeks Fannie, Freddie Overhaul:

Together with the Federal Housing Administration, Fannie and Freddie now purchase or guarantee nearly nine in 10 new mortgages, since private buyers of such loans have been absent amid the housing bust.

I categorically do not accept this assertion. There is more than enough private capital in the system to purchase these mortgages. The issue is that the private capital will only purchase these mortgages at appropriate risk adjusted prices. Freddie, Fannie, the FHA, and the Federal Reserve are stepping ‘through the market’ and subsidizing mortgage rates by at least 50 basis points and, in turn, crowding out private buyers. The WSJ continues:

Fannie and Freddie have taken nearly $96 billion of capital infusions from the U.S. Treasury since last November. The companies have received nearly 10 times that amount in additional support through purchases of debt and mortgage-backed securities by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve.

[Picking up the Slack chart]

Who is benefiting from these subsidized rates? New homeowners. Do not think for a second, however, that risks are properly aligned in this current mortgage dynamic.

The continued mispricing of risk will mean our housing market will experience more protracted levels of delinquencies, defaults, and foreclosures than if mortgage rates were higher and real discipline were instituted into the lending process.

In fact, unless our country accepts a fully socialized mortgage finance system, mortgage rates will have to move higher to reflect private sector pricing. Risks and returns will then be properly aligned and the bubble will deflate.

LD

Related Sense on Cents Commentary:
“Uncle Sam Guaranteeing Sub-Prime Loans” (May 4, 2009)






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