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China Ups the Ante

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 23rd, 2009 11:12 PM |

In ten days, the leaders of the G-20 will meet for the most highly anticipated financial conference since Bretton Woods in 1944. In a bold and aggressive move prior to this conference, China’s central bank called today for the replacement of the U.S. dollar as the international reserve currency. 

I have written about the tension in U.S.-Chinese relations over the last few months. The essence of this tension is captured in the Prisoner’s Dilemma and A Question of Honor.

Make no mistake: the timing, tone, and substance of this message so close to the start of the G-20 is another major shot across our bow. The ramifications for a change in this international reserve currency are enormous, both politically and economically. Check out current, worthwhile discussions on this topic collected from a variety of sources at Memeorandum.com. In addition, I recommend reading the following article from the Financial Times:

China calls for new reserve currency
By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing
Published: March 23 2009 12:16 | Last updated: March 24 2009 00:06 

China’s central bank on Monday proposed replacing the US dollar as the international reserve currency with a new global system controlled by the International Monetary Fund. (more…)

Audio Recording: NoQuarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 22nd, 2009 9:36 PM |

In case you missed LD’s Sunday night radio show, just click on the Play button below for the audio recording. Once the playback has started, you can fast forward or rewind to any portion of the show by clicking at any point along the play bar.

The first portion of the show included a review of the markets and an in-depth analysis of the very critical challenges facing the insurance industry.

The second half of the show included an interview with Chuck Doyle of Business Capital in San Francisco. Chuck is one of the leading professionals in the field of debt restructuring and recapitalization.

Sunday night, March 22nd, 2009
NoQuarter Radio’s “Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle” 

                                    

In 30 Minutes, Join No Quarter Radio’s “Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle”

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 22nd, 2009 7:30 PM |

Join me from 8:00 to 9:00 p.m. ET on No Quarter Radio for Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle. These are truly historic times in the global economy. Let’s “navigate the economic landscape” without the pandering or nonsense found elsewhere! With the stock market near 12 year lows, what is driving the flows? What is truly going on in the economy? Where are markets headed? What is happening in Washington and how is that impacting Wall Street? So much to cover.

Tonight I will talk with Chuck Doyle of Business Capital in San Francisco. Chuck is one of the leading professionals in the field of debt restructuring and recapitalization, and he has been highlighted regularly in major media outlets including The Wall Street Journal and CNN. In the midst of our current economic turmoil, this conversation will be both timely and enlightening.

The developments in the markets, economy, global finance, Wall Street, and Washington are occurring at breakneck speed. I will try to slow things down a bit and provide a sense of perspective. What did we learn in the markets over the last week and month and what do they mean for the weeks and months ahead? What is happening overseas and how does that impact us here at home? What is happening in the municipal sector and how will that impact the markets and our personal finances?
(more…)

Financial Logic and Morality

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 22nd, 2009 12:26 PM |

I am a proud graduate of the College of the Holy Cross, a Jesuit institution in Worcester, MA. The strength of a Jesuit education lies in the principles of Logic and Morality. While I fully appreciated my classes in Economics, German, Philosophy, and others, my classes in Logic and Morality made the greatest impact on me. Those classes forced me to think, not make rash judgments, take positions, and defend them.  

Fast forward to 2009 and a banking industry facing hundreds of billions, if not trillions, of unrealized losses. How do we most effectively, efficiently, and expeditiously address the health of this banking system so that our economy and population can regain its footing and prosper?  Let me revert back to the late ’70s and early ’80s and the principles instilled in me by those Jesuits.

 My Logic class utilized “decision trees.” My Morality class was based on the principle of “the greatest good for the greatest number.”

What have we learned over the last 6 months, as well as the last 16 years, to help us chart our way forward? (more…)

Tune in to No Quarter Radio’s “Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle”

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 22nd, 2009 9:35 AM |

Please join us this evening from 8-9 p.m. ET for No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle. With the stock market near 12 year lows, what is driving soc-promo5the flows? What is truly going on in the economy? Where are markets headed? Given the Washington political circus, how will new legislation impact the future of Wall Street? So much to cover.

Additionally, I will talk with Chuck Doyle of Business Capital in San Francisco. Chuck is one of the leading professionals in the field of debt restructuring and recapitalization, and he has been highlighted regularly in major media outlets including The Wall Street Journal and CNN. In the midst of our current economic turmoil, this conversation will be both timely and enlightening.

These are truly historic times in the global economy. Let’s “navigate the economic landscape” without the pandering or nonsense found elsewhere! What is on your mind? What would you like to address? Please share your questions and thoughts by calling in to (347) 677-0792, and also join our live chat room, which I’ll start up about 10 minutes before the show begins!

As a reminder, all NO QUARTER RADIO programming is archived and can be played back at any time. Just go to the NO QUARTER RADIO site and look for previous episodes. In addition, each program is available as a podcast on iTunes.

Many thanks to Larry Johnson and the rest of the team at No Quarter USA blog for providing such a vibrant vehicle as NO QUARTER RADIO. I look forward to having you join me Sunday evening as we collectively navigate the economic landscape!!

A New TARP Plan

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 21st, 2009 9:13 PM |

confidence-cartoon1

Cartoon by Walt Handelsman, Newsday

Wall Street’s New Mousetrap?

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 17th, 2009 11:33 AM |

Populist outrage is growing at the egregious bonus payments made at firms which took government money. Not every firm voluntarily took government money and, in my opinion, should not be restricted by government controls over bonus payments. However, the entry of the government into the financial industry is quickly creating a sea change in Wall Street’s outlook on compensation.

Is Wall Street working on building a better mousetrap to sidestep the government’s involvement? You can bet on it.  Wall Street Pursues Pay Loopholes highlights some of the early maneuvers firms are looking to make to address this issue. (more…)

What About Commercial Real Estate

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 16th, 2009 12:31 PM |

On my radio show last evening, I touched on some of the pressing issues facing our economy and, in turn, our markets. These issues include residential housing, municipal finance, automotive, and commercial real estate. While the first three issues seem to get a wealth of very personal and humanistic coverage from the media, the world of commercial real estate seems much more opaque. The site of large office buildings, suburban shopping malls, upscale hotels, warehouses, and apartment complexes do not evoke the level of human emotion involved in a foreclosed home, municipal layoffs, or factory closings. That said, the problems in the commercial real estate industry should generate just as much concern if not more. Why?

These commercial properties are the glue in our entire world of global finance. While the development of the commercial mortgage-backed securities market brought a large amount of liquidity to this sector, the shutdown of that market has just as quickly sucked the oxygen right back out. What has happened as a result? The lack of a transparent market has caused an overwhelming lack of liquidity and as a result properties are not trading. Why? The disparity between perceived value from the buyers’ and sellers’ perspectives is so wide that we could drive that proverbial Mack truck through it. (more…)

Reich to Obama – Re: Geithner

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 16th, 2009 8:44 AM |

Cross Posted from No Quarter!! Thanks!
Major h/t Andy!!

Since this pretty much speaks for itself, I’m just going to step out of the way.

From Robert Reich’s Blog:

(Robert Reich was the nation’s 22nd Secretary of Labor and is a professor at the University of California at Berkeley. His latest book is “Supercapitalism.” This is his personal journal.)

FRIDAY, MARCH 13, 2009
Paul Volcker to Barack Obama

Former Fed Chair Paul Volcker is briefing President Obama today on how well the stimulus package is doing. I have no inside knowledge of what he’s saying, but if I were Volcker (and I’m not — he’s almost two feet taller than I am), I’d say the following:

Mr. President, it’s way too early to know exactly what the stimulus is doing because the money is barely out the door, but I’ve got to tell you I’m worried as hell. Unemployment is at 8 percent, and underemployment is over 14 percent of the workforce. The economy is shrinking much faster than it was when you put the stimulus together. It will be more than a trillion dollars short of its full capacity this year, and I have every reason to believe the same next. State governments alone are hundreds of billions in the hole, creating a huge drag. So your $787 billion over two years, only two-thirds of which is direct spending, isn’t going to get us nearly far enough. I’d strongly recommend you make ready a second stimulus, about the same size, and get it enacted as soon as possible, with the proviso that it will be implemented if and when unemplyment hits 8.5 percent or underemployment reaches 15 percent.

Oh, and by the way, Mr. President. You may not want to hear this, but your Treasury Secretary is making things worse. His dithering on what to do about Wall Street, and his incapacity to speak clearly to the Street and to the public about what needs to be done, is spooking everyone. Why doesn’t he just put the irrevocably insolvent banks into receivership under the FDIC, sell off their assets, protect depositors, and reimburse taxpayers with whatever remains? Let the rest of the banks fend for themselves — working out their bad loans with their creditors. As to AIG, well, that’s a complete basketcase. Put it out of its suffering. Take it over, sell its assets, protect policy holders (you’ll need to create a big co-insurance plan with every other major insurer in the world), then get out.

Want a cigar?

I don’t smoke, but a cigar and a health shot of tequila is sounding good about now. And it couldn’t make the sick feeling in the pit of my stomach any worse.

In 30 Minutes, Join us for “No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle”

Posted by Larry Doyle on March 15th, 2009 7:30 PM |

SAME GREAT SHOW, BRAND NEW NAME! Join me this evening from 8:00 to 9:00 p.m. ET on No Quarter Radio for Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle. These are truly historic times in the global economy. Let’s “navigate the economic landscape” without the pandering or nonsense found elsewhere! With the stock market near 12 year lows, what is driving the flows? What is truly going on in the economy? Where are markets headed? What is happening in Washington and how is that impacting Wall Street? So much to cover.

The developments in the markets, economy, global finance, Wall Street, and Washington are occurring at breakneck speed. I will try to slow things down a bit and provide a sense of perspective. What did we learn in the markets over the last week and month and what do they mean for the weeks and months ahead? What is happening overseas and how does that impact us here at home? What is happening in the municipal sector and how will that impact the markets and our personal finances?
(more…)






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