Unemployment Report: October 2, 2009
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 2nd, 2009 8:58 AM |
The widely anticipated October Unemployment Report covering the month of September was just released. Let’s dive right in and take a look at the numbers . . .
I. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
July: 9.5%
August: 9.4%
September: 9.7%
– October Consensus Expectation: 9.8%
– October Actual: 9.8%
>> LD’s comments: as expected and only getting worse. The underemployment rate is 17%!! (High five MC). Long term unemployed (those out of work 24 weeks or more) is 5.4 million!!
II. NON-FARM PAYROLL (click here for definition of this term)
July: initial loss of 467k initially revised to a loss of 443k and now revised to a loss of 463k
August: initial loss of 247k revised to a loss of 276k, further revised to -304k
September: initial loss of 216k, revised to a loss of 201k
– October Consensus Expectation: loss of 175k
– October Actual: a loss of 263k, with revisions to the prior two months of a further loss of 13k jobs.
>> LD’s comments: decidedly worse than expected, this figure shoots a huge hole in the case of those who thought the economy would have a V-shaped recovery. Construction lost 64k jobs. The one sector of the economy that people would expect to support this number is government jobs. This did not happen as government payrolls declined by 53k jobs. This is an indication that cities, states, and towns are cutting payroll and services as tax revenues plummet.
III. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS
July: 0.0%
August: +.2% revised to +.3
September: came in at .3 with the prior month revised to .3 as well.
– October Consensus Expectation: .2%
– October Actual: .1%, also worse than expected.
>> LD’s comment: This number inspires no confidence that the economy can expect a rebound in consumer spending and retail sales anytime soon. Be mindful that the prior month was revised to +.4%. That figure is largely a result of a rise in the minimum wage.
IV. AVERAGE HOURLY WORKWEEK
July: 33.0 hours
August: 33.1 hours
September: 33.1 hours
– October Consensus Expectation: 33.1 hours
– October Actual: 33.0 hours, another big disappointment
>> LD’s comments: this number is a confirmation that businesses see no pickup in new orders. This number may be the most disappointing of all components as it hits directly at what business owners view as the future business climate.
V. FURTHER COLOR
Although many Wall Street based economists, media mavens, and government pundits are reporting these numbers as disappointing, the mere fact is prior reports were reported in a far too ebullient fashion. Our economy is trying to adapt to a lack of credit. Meredith Whitney highlights this fact in today’s WSJ in writing, The Credit Crunch Continues. Expect an increased call for greater fiscal stimulus. The fact is the government programs have largely created safety nets and pulled consumer demand forward while the major structural unemployment issues in the economy loom very large.
VI. MARKET REACTION
At 8:10am:
2yr Tsy: .87%
10yr Tsy: 3.15%
S&P 500 Futures: -3.2
DJIA Futures: -27
U. S. Dollar Index: 77.22
At 8:50am, Post-Report:
2yr Tsy: .85%
10yr Tsy: 3.14%, we did get as low as 3.10% immediately after the report.
S&P 500 Futures: -12.00, which indicates that the stock market will open up down approximately 1.2%
DJIA Futures: -104
U.S. Dollar Index: 77.30…basically unchanged. Recall that a lot of hedge funds and speculators are short dollars and long a host of risk-based assets. The dollar may improve as those risk-based markets sell off.
Questions, comments, constructive criticisms always encouraged and appreciated.
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Thanks.
LD
I Got Good News and I Got Bad News
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 1st, 2009 10:00 PM |
To regular readers of Sense on Cents, I thank you for your support. Whether through word of mouth or other channels, your legions are growing. This is good news and I appreciate it.
The fact that more people are regularly coming to Sense on Cents is also bad news from the standpoint that the traffic is overwhelming the server. I am working to rectify that situation and beg your indulgence if/when there are temporary periods when the site is down as I continue to address this issue.
LD
Wall Street “Skin” Needs to Thicken
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 1st, 2009 3:11 PM |
I have little patience for dealing with thin-skinned people. In a similar fashion, I have little regard for those who would care to generate benefits and rewards without putting ‘skin’ in the game. I respect individuals who are willing to expend the effort, the values, and the capital to grow an ownership stake in an enterprise. Wall Street boards and management need to take a full and honest accounting of their firms on these fronts.
Any business enterprise can be chock full of tremendous effort, pristine values, and employee capital but still fail. Other enterprises can have an abundance of some of these qualities and still fail. For example, the employees of both Bear Stearns and Lehman owned in excess of 30% of their respective firms. Despite those ownership stakes, the excessive greed of senior management within those institutions along with outsized risks brought those once proud firms to their knees. All this said, any enterprise which puts more ‘skin in the game’ has added incentive to more aggressively and prudently manage franchise risk. To this end, welcome to the debate centering on Wall Street compensation practices.
I am not in favor of the government dictating compensation practices. However, if boards willfully neglect their corporate governance responsibilities then those institutions should be subject to aggressive capital regulations and restrictions. I do not pretend to think these compensation issues are easily addressed, but they are part and parcel of the Uncle Sam economy.
I addressed this topic on August 21st in writing “Will Goldman Sachs Be Bulls, Bears, or Pigs?” In that post, I wrote specifically of Goldman’s compensation, but my premise would hold for all Wall Street banks. I continue to maintain;
The fact is the public sees Goldman specifically and Wall Street in general benefitting from taxpayer dollars injected into the system along with a host of Fed and Treasury programs. While Goldman has paid back its TARP funds, they have still benefitted from financing backed by the FDIC. Moreso than direct benefits to the firm, Goldman has clearly benefitted indirectly from the gamut of Uncle Sam’s largesse.
Uncle Sam clearly has a large amount of ’skin in the game.’ Goldman can address its image and burgeoning reputation problem by increasing its own ’skin in the game.’ How can they achieve this? They should compensate employees in stock to a much greater extent and have that stock vest over a longer time period.
Typically, senior executives, traders, and bankers are paid approximately 35% in stock and the stock would vest over a three year time frame. As such, individuals would typically have one year’s worth of compensation tied up in the firm.
Let’s see Goldman pay people 65-70% in stock and have it vest over a 5 to 6 year time frame. If Goldman is concerned about losing people, that pay structure would serve as a real disincentive for other firms to hire Goldman people. Make no mistake, Goldman employees would NOT be happy to be paid in this format . . . BUT there would be plenty of people on Wall Street who would take that pay structure right now to work at Goldman Sachs.
Goldman has the opportunity through this bonus cycle to display whether they are bulls, bears, or pigs.
Holding this position, I was pleased to read this morning Wall Street Needs More Skin In the Game by Peter Weinberg, a founding partner of Perella Weinberg and former Goldman Sachs partner. Weinberg writes:
The debate about bonuses and Wall Street pay rages on, and for good reason. Compensation is a complex issue that is essential to managing systemic risk. The asymmetrical structure of pay packages—a “heads I win, tails I win less” approach—was wrong. But overly prescriptive government intervention to solve the problem poses its own challenges and might not help us get the incentives right, either. So what can we do?
Here are two ideas that could help us replicate the discipline instilled by the old pay packages of private partnerships:
First, institute what is called a “10/20/30/40” plan. Under such a plan, junior employees would receive regular competitive pay, but senior employees would be paid as follows: 10% of annual compensation in cash now; 20% of annual compensation in cash later; 30% of annual compensation in stock now (with a required holding period); and 40% of annual compensation in stock later.
“Now” means paid immediately at the end of a compensation period. “Later” means after a period during which a cycle can be evaluated. During that evaluation, the firm’s compensation committee would perform a “look back” in which it can adjust the award or leave it at a predetermined level. This function should not be used to micromanage past bonuses but simply to make sure success in a specific year was still viewed to be success in hindsight.
Under this program, 60% of the compensation would vest over a longer time frame. As much as I would not have personally liked this system when I worked on Wall Street, people need to accept that the industry has changed. Weinberg continues:
Second, create a “Skin in the Game” plan. When an executive or a senior employee manages a trading or asset-management business which can be measured by its own profit and loss statement, those executives or employees should invest a significant amount of their own capital in that business or fund. The compensation committee of the company’s board would determine who qualifies for this plan and the definition of a material commitment.
Well done, Mr. Weinberg. I commend you. Where are your Wall Street colleagues to implement these recommendations?
LD
September 2009 Market Review
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 1st, 2009 9:31 AM |
I could wax poetic about the ebbs and flows of the various segments of the markets along with a variety of developments on and off Wall Street; however, in doing so I may detract from purely reading what the numbers are telling us. What do the numbers say? Much like last month, with the exception of the U.S. Dollar Index, every market segment once again increased in value. Wow!!
The dollar is clearly the ‘juice’ which is being used to drive an inordinate number of positive carry trades.
Are we merely supposed to enjoy the positive returns and assume they are a precursor to a brighter tomorrow? Not in my opinion. As I have been referencing, I believe we are not even a third of the way into running our ‘economic marathon,’ and thus prudence dictates we maintain our discipline and pace. Why do I feel this way? Our global banking system remains under pressure and has unrealized losses of $1.8 trillion. To this point, I wrote yesterday “When Is a $3.4 Trillion Loss Supposed to Be Good News?”:
A $3.4 trillion loss may be perceived as good news when it was previously projected to be $4 trillion. That said, when losses of this magnitude are buried in a mix of financial chicanery and accounting charades, the impact is not lessened but only extended.
How did the Financial Times characterize this IMF report and the state of global banking? The FT writes this morning:
The International Monetary Fund’s financial stability reports are losing their capacity to shock. This is a shame. . . . The shock factor may be gone, but sustaining a recovery will be no cakewalk.
Active traders may be excessively ebullient or despondent, depending on the daily swings in their profits or losses. I will enjoy the higher values in my monthly statements as they come in, but I am not changing my approach to increased discipline across all parts of my personal balance sheet. A balanced and well diversified portfolio with excess liquidity still strikes me as the best approach at this time.
Now, take a look at the numbers. Comments, questions always appreciated.
LD

When Is a $3.4 Trillion Loss Supposed To Be Good News?
Posted by Larry Doyle on September 30th, 2009 2:45 PM |
A $3.4 trillion loss may be perceived as good news when it was previously projected to be $4 trillion. That said, when losses of this magnitude are buried in a mix of financial chicanery and accounting charades, the impact is not lessened but only extended.
The loss to which I refer is the projected global writedowns on a wide array of toxic loans and assets as put forth by the International Monetary Fund. The IMF released the Global Financial Stability Report yesterday. While it is hard for the media not to cover any report that would project these types of losses, this story is not receiving the attention it deserves. What do we learn from this report?
>Global financial stability has improved, but risks remain elevated.
> Estimated global losses have improved to $3.4 trillion. However, further deterioration in banks’ loans is to come — over half of their writedowns are still to be recognized. (LD’s emphasis)
> Policymakers face considerable near-term challenges. These include ensuring sufficient credit growth to support economic recovery; devising appropriate exit strategies; and managing the risks arising from heavy public borrowing.
Other highlighted points include:
1. In regard to financial institutions, the IMF puts forth that bank earnings will NOT be sufficient to cover these writedowns and that banks will need to raise more capital. While securities prices of certain toxic assets have rebounded, the underlying loans on securities, as well as unsecuritized loans, continue to deteriorate. Against that backdrop, bank lending to consumers and businesses will remain under pressure.
2. Private sector credit growth continues to contract while public sector credit demands grow. This phenomena will only lead to further ‘crowding out.’
3. While Asian and Latin American economies appear to be regaining a sense of stability, the emerging economies of eastern Europe remain challenged.
4. Long term interest rates will be under pressure due to the enormous global fiscal deficits. The IMF projects that these long term rates will rise by anywhere from 10 to 60 basis points for every 1% rise in the deficit relative to GDP.
5. Policy changes remain significant. Issues of systemic risk, exit strategies, credit availability, and balance sheet pressures need to be addressed and managed.
6. The IMF provides a thoughtful and comprehensive review of all the challenges facing financial institutions and regulatory agencies in an attempt to restart the securitization of assets.
From origination to securitizing to rating to distributing, this once large corner of our economic landscape has widespread issues. I come away from reading this part of the IMF report with the feeling that the hurdles will be substantial and the time process protracted before any meaningful fully private securitization market regenerates.
7. The IMF gives strong marks to officials for stabilizing markets, but also cautions that the communication along with the actual unwinding of support mechanisms is critically important for long term stability.
What do I make of the IMF report? I repeat what I said the other day: we are running a marathon and, at best, we have only reached the 7-mile mark.
Miles to go….
LD
Documents Indicate Ken Lewis Utilized the MAC to Shake Down Bernanke and Paulson
Posted by Larry Doyle on September 29th, 2009 2:33 PM |
10.01.09 UPDATE FROM LD: I wrote this commentary this past Tuesday afternoon. Mr. Lewis tendered his resignation last evening. In regard to my concluding remarks in this post, I only wish all my calls on the market were equally as prescient.
***************
The intrigue embedded in the Bank of America takeover of Merrill Lynch is never ending. While the book and movie of this high stakes Wall Street thriller will be voluminous, the story most certainly has many chapters yet to be written. To this point, the following questions remain outstanding:
1. Why, at the time, did Bank of America pay such a premium for Merrill Lynch?
2. Did Bank of America know all the details surrounding the $3.5 billion in accelerated bonus payments made to Merrill employees in December 2008?
3. What did Merrill CEO John Thain share with Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis in regard to the growing losses at Merrill?
4. Did Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson pressure Lewis to complete the merger against his will?
5. Did Ken Lewis consider invoking the MAC (material adverse condition) clause and negate the deal? Did Lewis consider invoking the MAC to negotiate a cheaper price?
6. Did Ken Lewis use the leverage embedded in the potential implementation of the MAC clause to generate significant government support?
Recall that a recent SEC fine of $33 million imposed by the SEC on Bank of America was thrown out by Judge Jed Rakoff as nothing more than a contrivance in which taxpayer funds were used to effectively repay other taxpayers, those being Bank of America shareholders.
Judge Rakoff will hear this case between the SEC and Bank of America in early February. Perhaps at that time answers to the questions asked above will be fully uncovered and released. Perhaps stories will leak beforehand to shed light on this drama. To that end, welcome to Sense on Cents.
I read a story to which I will link, but can not promise the link will not be broken at some future point. As such, I will provide a brief synopsis which provides riveting insights into Question 6.
Law.com reports today How Bank of America Used Merrill’s Losses to Bully the Government. In this report, the reporter offers that Corporate Counsel magazine has pored over hundreds of documents, e-mails, and transcripts pertaining to the Bank of America merger with Merrill Lynch.
In regard to the use of the MAC clause or renegotiating the deal, Law.com very clearly lays out how events unfolded last December:
The record shows that Bank of America decided not to disclose to shareholders its consideration of a MAC before the Dec. 5 vote. It also apparently decided not to use the MAC as leverage against Merrill to lower its price before the vote, even though the bank had agreed to pay a premium — $29 per share for Merrill stock that was selling at $17. It might have, but didn’t, use the MAC to force Merrill to drop its multibillion-dollar bonus pool.
Instead, the bank waited until after the shareholders approved the merger — but before the deal closed on Jan. 1 — and used the MAC to muscle the federal government and U.S. taxpayers into ponying up more bailout funds. At the time, the bank did not disclose the role of federal regulators in not invoking the MAC, and in promising the bank another $20 billion of taxpayer money in 2009 to complete the deal. (The bank had already received $25 billion in bailout funds in 2008.)
Some observers and politicians have accused federal banking officials of forcing Bank of America CEO Kenneth Lewis into completing the merger. But the documents suggest it was Lewis doing the bullying, relying on a highly vulnerable marketplace to win his way.
Wow. Did Ken Lewis overplay his hand? In light of this information, is there any doubt that Lewis is a short timer?
We will learn more in the days and weeks ahead as this drama plays out. You can’t make this stuff up . . .
Thoughts, comments, questions always appreciated.
LD
Related Sense on Cents Commentary:
Did Big Ben Bernanke and Heavy Hank Paulson Break the Law in Buying Ken Lewis’ Silence (April 28, 2009)
Rep Edolphus Towns on Bernanke’s Testimony: ‘Something Rotten in the Cotton’ (June 26, 2009)
For JP Morgan’s Winters, ‘The Ledge Got Very Narrow and The Elbows Razor Sharp’
Posted by Larry Doyle on September 29th, 2009 12:30 PM |
Was it mere coincidence that JP Morgan’s co-head of investment banking Bill Winters recently voiced his disdain, genuine or not, for banker greed? I shared my assessment of Winters’ comments yesterday in writing, “JP Morgan’s Winters Identifies Problems, But Offers No Solutions.”
Why do I ask? Bill Winters was just shown the door at JP Morgan. Was Winters exacting a pound of flesh as he effectively went down the escalator? Bloomberg provides a measure of insight on these developments in writing, JP Morgan’s Staley to Run Investment Bank in Shake-Up:
JPMorgan Chase & Co. shook up the leadership of its investment bank, surprising analysts by announcing the immediate departure of co-chief executive officer William “Bill” Winters and naming asset-management chief Jes Staley to run the business.
Steve Black, who helped lead the investment bank with London-based Winters, will become executive chairman of the unit, the New York-based bank said today in a statement. Staley will be CEO of the business and Mary Callahan Erdoes, CEO of the private bank, will succeed Staley in running asset management.
These moves within the executive offices at JP Morgan are a classic example of what a friend and former colleague at Bear Stearns once told me about life within the upper-most echelon of Wall Street. He said, ‘the ledge is very narrow and the elbows are razor sharp.’
The simple fact is Winters was the outsider within that executive suite which he occupied with Steve Black. Is Steve Black a good guy? Does it matter? Steve Black has a longstanding relationship with Jamie Dimon from working with him back at Smith Barney in the early to mid-90s. Black, not unlike almost every chief executive on Wall Street, is a master at maneuvering on that ledge.
As for Mr. Winters, do not expect him to offer any statements critical of Black, Dimon, JP Morgan or any parts of JP Morgan’s franchise. Why? When any executive leaves a Wall Street firm, he is required to sign a release which handcuffs him from making any negative comments about the firm. Winters assuredly has significant JP Morgan stock and options outstanding. If he were to comment, he would jeopardize those holdings.
To that end, perhaps Bill Winters’ statement yesterday was his ‘Grove O’Rourke’ in the recently published Top Producer by Norb Vonnegut. What do I mean? Perhaps Winters’ interview in the London Evening Standard, JP Morgan’s London Head Slams ‘Greed’ of Bankers, was his conscience speaking and genuinely voicing his disdain for the greed that infects Wall Street and the City.
LD
Related Sense on Cents Commentary:
JP Morgan’s Winters Identifies Problem, But Offers No Solution (September 28, 2009)
Pimco’s El-Erian Properly Frames the Financial Debate
Posted by Larry Doyle on September 29th, 2009 9:34 AM |

Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian
I am increasingly impressed by Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian. Why? I believe El-Erian consistently provides a thoughtful and informed opinion and analysis of the global economic landscape. I witness his sagacity again this morning in reading his Financial Times commentary, Return of The Old Ways of Thinking Threatens Recovery:
We are at the point of maximum confusion in the multi-year transition of the global economy, markets and policymaking. We have left the global growth regime that was driven primarily by debt-financed consumption in the US, but we have not as yet reached a position of more balanced, albeit anaemic, growth. Those who lack a robust anchoring framework, be they investors or policymakers, risk being misled and backtracking to outdated ways of thinking.
I concur with El-Erian’s premise. As much as consumers, investors, bankers, and politicians may want to return to ‘business as usual,’ the fact is the global economy and the markets are a dramatically changed place. While market analysts and government policy wonks feed us a steady diet of ‘green shoots’ and ‘positive change in the rate of change,’ El-Erian properly frames the debate by focusing on the absolute levels expressed in economic and market data rather than merely the rate of change in those levels.
I made a less eloquent attempt at stating this premise this past July 29th in writing, “Economy and Markets: Improving, Declining, or Adapting?” I asserted:
While most economists and market analysts are looking at statistics and data to determine whether the economy and consumers are improving or rolling over, my take is different. I view the economy and consumers as adapting to the new dynamic at work in our country.
While those on Wall Street and their friends in the media would revel in short term developments and daily market swings, I view our market and global economy as akin to running a marathon. As such, I would place us at best at the 7 mile mark. El-Erian makes a similar assessment and states as much in writing:
Today’s lack of appropriate anchoring frameworks appears to be exacerbating short-termism. The issue goes well beyond the still-limited appreciation of the multi-year realignment of the global economy, which is gaining momentum. It also relates to tendencies well-documented by behavioural economists – such as framing the problem wrongly and refusing to question past approaches.
Given all this, we would be all well advised to follow the admonition of Mervyn King. Last month, the governor of the Bank of England stated bluntly: “It’s the level, stupid – it’s not the growth rates, it’s the levels that matter here.” Investors have not yet accepted his insight that the absolute levels of income, debt, wealth and unemployment, not just the rates of change, are what matters today. They need to, and soon.
What ‘heart rate monitors’ does El-Erian utilize to assess the overall health of our global economy? He offers the following:
>First, consumer indebtedness is still too high relative to income expectations and credit availability, particularly in the US and the UK.
>Second, some banks’ balance sheets are still too geared for the comfort of regulators or their own managers. This will inhibit them from lending to the real economy at a time when certain sectors (such as commercial real estate, but also residential housing) still require significant refinancing, and when consumers need time to work down their excessive debt loads.
>Third, unemployment has risen well beyond expectations, and is likely to prove unusually protracted.
>Finally, public debt has grown so rapidly as to spark concerns about future debt dynamics. This would inhibit the effectiveness of future stimulus measures, as well as complicating the formulation of exit strategies.
I encourage readers to take Mr. El-Erian’s assessment to focus on the absolute levels of economic and market data. In the process, please then incorporate that approach into the report on deflation I offered yesterday in writing, “Will Deflationary Forces Overwhelm Global Fiscal Stimulus?”
I commend Mohammed El-Erian for properly framing the debate. He is helping us all see the ‘forest for the trees’ as we navigate the economic landscape.
LD
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John Mack Almost “Comes to Jesus”
Posted by Larry Doyle on September 30th, 2009 11:22 AM |
Wall Street has never been known to embrace humility. The rough and tumble world of ‘the street’ ultimately prizes profit over principle. Not that the titans on Wall Street would ever admit it, but make no mistake, Wall Street was and always will be about one thing…the bottom line. Nobody was more aggressive in pursuing those bottom line results than Morgan Stanley’s John Mack. His moniker “Mack the Knife” speaks volumes about his ruthless nature and aggressive cost-cutting to drive results.
Against that backdrop, I find it particularly interesting to see Mack present a fairly introspective interview with Bloomberg’s Judy Woodruff. All other assertions aside, Mack was recently unceremoniously pushed aside at Morgan Stanley. As I watched this short interview a few different times, I sensed a man entering a confessional as he tries to ‘come to Jesus.’
Mack initially provides insights on the following:
1. his view that the U.S. and European economies will have a long, slow recovery
2. his view that emerging economies will rebound in stronger fashion
3. the need for a systemic risk regulator on Wall Street
4. the need for one global financial regulatory system with one set of rules
5. the need for clawbacks in the Wall Street compensation process (clawback meaning the ability for the firm to pull back compensation from employees)
6. he admits that Wall Street needs to change. He tries to provide a mea culpa by offering an explanation that Wall Street firms tried to compete with private equity funds and hedge funds by developing those businesses internally. At this juncture in the interview, I felt that he was almost about to say, “Dear Lord, we lost our way and our moral compass. Please forgive us.”
Mack has been humbled both inside Morgan Stanley and across Wall Street. This Bloomberg interview exemplifies how “Whoever exalts himself shall be humbled; and whoever humbles himself shall be exalted.”
LD
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