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HomeLaurence Kotlikoff: “The U.S. Is Bankrupt”
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 12th, 2010 1:20 PM |
Nobody likes being told they are broke. While the truth may hurt, when you’re broke, you’re broke. Are we as a nation broke? Laurence Kotlikoff believes we are and expresses as much today in a Bloomberg commentary, U.S. Is Bankrupt and We Don’t Even Know It,
Let’s get real. The U.S. is bankrupt. Neither spending more nor taxing less will help the country pay its bills.
What it can and must do is radically simplify its tax, health-care, retirement and financial systems, each of which is a complete mess. But this is the good news. It means they can each be redesigned to achieve their legitimate purposes at much lower cost and, in the process, revitalize the economy.
Last month, the International Monetary Fund released its annual review of U.S. economic policy. Its summary contained these bland words about U.S. fiscal policy: “Directors welcomed the authorities’ commitment to fiscal stabilization, but noted that a larger than budgeted adjustment would be required to stabilize debt-to-GDP.”
But delve deeper, and you will find that the IMF has effectively pronounced the U.S. bankrupt. (more…)
Calling All Auction-Rate Securities Holders
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 10th, 2010 6:42 AM |
Without information there can be no real truth. Without truth there can be no real justice. Without justice, what is the quality of our nation and ultimately our civilization?
Why do so many Americans remain enraged at the economic travesty of the last few years? For the very simple reason that those regulators who were charged to protect American investors not only failed in their initial charge but to a large extent have continued to fail investors by not aggressively pursuing justice where financial improprieties–if not outright fraud–transpired.
To this end, why am I not surprised that many auction-rate securities holders have quickly directed their attention and focus to the state of Colorado where securities commissioner Fred Joseph has filed a complaint against E*Trade for improperly marketing and distributing auction-rate securities. Other ARS holders are hoping Commissioner Joseph will take a similar tact on their behalf against other firms for the same reason.
In order for the Colorado state securities commissioner to pursue the truth, he needs the information. (more…)
Thank You!
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 7th, 2010 7:50 AM |
I am forever humbled when people read and comment at Sense on Cents.
What is the fuel that drives Sense on Cents? An insatiable competitiveness on my part. My desire to help people. My personal intellectual curiousity to learn more about a wide array of market and economic topics. That said, the fact that people continue to read, share, and comment on my writing is the ultimate fuel that drives this blog/website. Your interests drive my interests. In short, we are helping each other.
Given my recent professional move to Greenwich Investment Management, along with my ongoing desire to maintain and grow my blog/website, I am even more indebted to those who provide an extra set of eyes and ears to topics that fall under the heading of real “sense on cents.” This form of leverage is truly a practice in which there are no losers. Thank you!
I reference this point of leveraging based on the recent letters and commentary I have had with the likes of Gary Aguirre, various auction-rate securities holders, and many others. Please do not be bashful in writing me and sharing your stories and situations, especially if they may help a wider audience. While obviously protecting personal identities, I am happy to run commentary that serves all our interests.
On that note, thank you again! Now, I am off for the day as my better half and I are going to pick up our 11 year old son at camp. I can’t wait to see our boy!!
Have a great day . . . and keep spreading the ‘sense on cents.’
THANK YOU!
LD
What Happens When Investors Lack Trust?
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 6th, 2010 1:05 PM |
Think the structure of the equity markets is broken? With the preponderance of equity volume now dominated by high frequency trading and true retail investors fleeing in droves, what do people think the chances are that we could experience another Flash Crash as we saw on May 6th?
Last evening, The Wall Street Journal ran an online poll on this topic in Legacy of the ‘Flash Crash.’ I have to admit, I was surprised by the results. Did you get concerned witnessing the 1000 point ‘whoosh’ in a very short time period on May 6th? An overwheming number of pollsters believe it can happen again.
With our computer-drive stock market, could a “flash crash’ happen again?
Without Job Growth, Here Comes the “QE2”
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 6th, 2010 9:46 AM |
This morning’s Unemployment Report further confirms that our economy remains burdened by our Sense on Cents description of ‘walking pneumonia.’ While this month’s report was decidedly weaker than expectations, once again we witness downward revisions to prior reports. Do you find it strange that more often than not much of the economic data released has displayed this tendency to have downward revisions to prior reports. Think the data is heavily massaged? You think?
Let’s navigate this morning’s report thanks to The Wall Street Journal’s Market Data page: (more…)
Franklin Raines Must Have Amnesia
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 4th, 2010 1:25 PM |
Former Chairman and CEO of Fannie Mae, Franklin Raines
Whatever happened to the virtues of taking responsibility and ownership for issues? Why do I hold so many senior executives in our financial industry in disdain? For the very simple reason that I have seen very few of these execs stand up and be counted. All too many of them point the finger elsewhere, use the convenient excuse of ‘the perfect storm,’ or develop a convenient case of amnesia.
Who is a fine examplar of the last category? Former Chairman and CEO of Fannie Mae Franklin Raines who wrote into The Wall Street Journal yesterday on the topic of the demise of our two step-children, Fannie and Freddie. Raines promotes that the downfall of these organizations and the enormous burden they now put on American taxpayers were simply the result of the excessive credit risks taken by Freddie and Fannie from 2005-2007. Raines writes, Poor Credit Judgments Sank Fannie and Freddie:
The facts about the financial collapse of Fannie and Freddie are pretty clear and a matter of public record. (more…)
Investing Uncertainties in the World of Fat Tails
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 3rd, 2010 1:26 PM |
There is little doubt we are living through a period of great uncertainty. There are a wide array of vastly diverging opinions as to what our future economic landscape entails. How often have you felt that people with dramatically disparate outlooks on the market and economy each encompass a number of cogent points? I have felt that sensation numerous times. What is the key variable in each and every opinion and assessment? Timing. When things occur is often more important than what actually occurs.
The expected timing of events leads many to believe that we are living through a period with elevated tail risk, or more succinctly fat tails. In layman’s terms:
What Does Tail Risk Mean? (more…)
Where Is The Market Headed?
Posted by Larry Doyle on August 2nd, 2010 9:59 AM |
In commentary written specifically for Sense on Cents, our friends from Forextraders.com share some fabulous insights and perspectives on the ups and downs of the equity markets.
The Stock Market Is In Limbo—Which Way Will It Go?
An incredibly positive corporate earnings season in July has helped the market to discount immediate fears of a possible double dip recession. The strong corporate earnings reports, however, had to battle Ben Bernanke’s very dovish remarks, as he emphasized the slowing recovery in the U.S. and raised the possibility of Federal Reserve instituting further quantitative easing measures. Those bearish remarks by the Fed President regarding the possible future direction of the U.S. economy did cause equity markets to stall in the 3rd week of July, but now in the final week of the month, equity markets are again taking a shot at the HI’s from the month of June. (more…)
Fox Business Highlights Need for SEC Transparency
Posted by Larry Doyle on July 29th, 2010 12:33 PM |
Kudos to Fox Business News for leading the charge within the financial media on the need for real transparency at the SEC. FBN’s Adam Schapiro was just on chatting with Stuart Varney on this very important topic. Listen to Adam, and ponder his comments in light of the Madoff and Stanford travesties that took place literally right under the nose of the SEC. (Clicking on the image will bring you to the Fox Business News website, and the video clip will begin to play automatically.)
Who is the SEC protecting?
LD
