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Wall Street’s Great Enabler Dodges a Bullet

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 23rd, 2009 7:46 AM |

Did Barack Obama and team give a sly and subtle wink to Wall Street that ‘the game goes on’ and the ‘fix is still in?’ I believe they did.

Many analysts, myself included, view Obama’s proposed regulatory reforms as a combination of ‘reshuffling the deck chairs’ and ‘cosmetic surgery.’ In the process of those maneuvers, the rating agencies – Wall Street’s Great Enabler – went largely untouched.

The rating agencies business model presents massive conflicts of interest for all involved. The greatest conflict centers on the fact that the rating agencies’ stream of revenue remains beholden to the Wall Street banks. Without addressing that issue, any dialogue on this topic holds no water.

The Wall Street Journal does yeoman work in highlighting the continuation of the Wall Street charade in this area in writing, A Triple AAA Punt:

If world-class lobbying could win a Stanley Cup, the credit-ratings caucus would be skating a victory lap this week. The Obama plan for financial re-regulation leaves unscathed this favored class of businesses whose fingerprints are all over the credit meltdown.

How is it possible in the midst of such a massive financial meltdown that Obama, Geithner, and team could leave this critically important piece of the regulatory puzzle untouched? Actually, it is quite simple.

As with any heist, the perpetrators need a ‘bag man,’ who will take a payoff while providing cover to the operation. This scenario with the rating agencies is a prime example of How Wall Street Bought Washington.

Obama is flexing his muscles for the public, but without changes within the rating agencies the signal to Wall Street from Washington is that it is ‘business as usual.’ The WSJ offers as much:

The Obama plan does make plenty of vague suggestions, similar to those proposed by the rating agencies themselves, to improve oversight of the ratings process and better manage conflicts of interest. The Obama Treasury has even adopted the favorite public relations strategy of the ratings agency lobby: Blame the victim. “Market discipline broke down as investors relied excessively on credit rating agencies,” says this week’s Treasury reform white paper. After regulators spent decades explicitly demanding that banks and mutual funds hold securities rated by the big rating agencies, regulators now have the nerve to blame investors for paying attention to the ratings.

Sense on Cents believes strongly we need transparency and integrity in the regulatory process. What Obama has delivered in this key area are ‘vague suggestions.’

Am I surprised? No. Once again, the American public at large and investors specifically are subjected to ‘business as usual.’

LD

Dylan Ratigan Asks for Some Transparency

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 22nd, 2009 5:04 PM |

Credit to Nathan Martin, a contributing author at Wall Street Pit, for highlighting this engagement between Dylan Ratigan and Christina Romer, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Obama administration.

To be perfectly frank, our general media has inured us to softball questions for our political and financial establishment. To that end, financial blogs are carrying the real weight of the day in terms of investigative journalism and critical questioning.

Against that backdrop, Mr. Ratigan’s questioning of Ms. Romer about the lack of transparency and integrity of Wall Street lobbyists’ engagement with Washington is particularly appreciated if only because it happens so infrequently,if at all.

 

For those interested in this topic, I resubmit:

1. A Real Regulatory Review: Sense on Cents Interview with Bill Singer

2. Future Financial Regulation: Not a Question of Sufficiency, But of Transparency and Integrity

3. How Wall Street Bought Washington

LD

Stay the course . . . we will continue to fight the good fight in airing the issues surrounding this topic!!

LD

Barack and Barney Look to Further Plunder Freddie and Fannie

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 22nd, 2009 2:31 PM |

When a homeowner goes out without locking his doors and leaving some lights on, he is inviting trouble.

In a similar fashion, the American public should prepare itself for a continued plundering of the portfolios and balance sheets of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae by our leading housing finance gurus, Barack Obama and Barney Frank.

The scene is already set for our dynamic duo to pile an ever increasing amount of risk onto these “wards of the state.” How so?

1. While Freddie and Fannie are very much the responsibility of Uncle Sam, their balance sheets are not technically on Uncle Sam’s roll. That ‘cover’ provides a convenient disguise, but the fact is these ‘foster children’ are now nothing more than receptacles for more of Uncle Sam’s risky undertakings.

2. Neither the media nor the political opposition truly call them on these financial charades.

We learn today that both Barack and Barney have grand visions to add more high risk loans at mispriced rates onto Freddie and Fannie’s books. The Wall Street Journal offers,  Changes Urged to Rules on Condo Loans:

Two Democratic lawmakers are calling on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to relax recently tightened standards for mortgages on new condominiums, saying they could threaten the viability of some developments and slow the housing-market recovery.

In March, Fannie Mae said it would no longer guarantee mortgages on condos in buildings where fewer than 70% of the units have been sold, up from 51%. Fannie Mae also won’t purchase mortgages in buildings where 15% of owners are delinquent on condo association dues or where one owner has more than 10% of units, which the firm sees as signals that a building could run into financial trouble. Freddie Mac will implement similar policies next month.

In a letter to the chief executives of Fannie and Freddie, Reps. Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who is chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, and Anthony Weiner (D., N.Y.) warned that the 70% sales threshold “may be too onerous” and could lead condo buyers to shun new developments. The legislators asked the companies to “make appropriate adjustments” to their underwriting standards for condos.

What does Barney Frank truly know about housing finance? This assessment is an elongated statement similar in style to Frank’s now famous approach to sub-prime lending back in September, 2003. Barney proposed, “I want to roll the dice.”  America crapped out on that roll. Now in the height of hypocrisy, Barney is still providing insights and recommendations on mortgage topics. What’s wrong with this picture? (more…)

About Those Jobs

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 22nd, 2009 11:23 AM |

Are creating jobs the same as saving them?

Please listen closely to the Obama administration on the topic of jobs. Why? Very subtly, Obama and team are defining their employment efforts not only as ‘creating jobs’ but as ‘saving and creating jobs.’ While one may deem this broader definition as a worthy and admirable approach, it is pure politics.

Please tell me what prior administration would have addressed employment in this manner? I mean, taking a counter approach, who would accept a politician as credible if they pronounced, “well, we are looking to create millions in new jobs but we are really not concerned with saving jobs.” The American public is being fed pure political pandering and the media will not call Obama on it.

Why has Obama “lowered the bar” on the jobs front? In typical management fashion, Obama is playing the “undersell to overdeliver” game. Why does he feel compelled to “play this game?” Pure politics on one hand, but Obama appreciates real economic peril on the other. What does that peril encompass? The fact that the Brave New World of the Uncle Sam Economy is not going to have meaningful job creation anytime soon.

We see evidence of that this morning. The Wall Street Journal puts forth, Cuts Are Here to Stay, Companies Say:

Many companies that have cut jobs, pay and benefits during the recession may not be quick to restore them.

The Washington Post similarly addresses this topic in writing, Recovery’s Missing Ingredient: New Jobs:

The likelihood of severe unemployment extending into the 2010 midterm elections and beyond poses a significant political hurdle to President Obama and congressional Democrats, who are already under fire for what critics label profligate spending. Continuing high unemployment rates would undercut the fundamental argument behind much of that spending: the promise that it will create new jobs and improve the prospects of working Americans, which Obama has called the ultimate measure of a healthy economy.

Without real stability and improvement on the employment front, our economy will not see meaningful improvement in retail sales and inventory buildup.

Do not be surprised to see renewed talk out of Washington of the need for another Stimulus Package despite the fact that the first one has currently had little to no impact.

Obama and the Democrats are running into a wall of public fatigue in regard to the exploding fiscal deficit. Public opinion polls show the deficit is viewed as much more pressing than Obama’s health-care reform.

Has Barack bitten off more than he can chew? While the media does not keep him honest, the public at large is not totally clueless.

A penny saved may in fact be a penny earned, but in regard to jobs that principle does nothing for our nation’s unemployed.

LD

‘Inside’ Information Makes a ‘World’ of Difference

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 22nd, 2009 7:24 AM |

Can an individual investor get a fair shake on Wall Street?

Many smaller investors believe Wall Street is biased against them. Why? Information is hoarded by major institutions who act upon it prior to it disseminating to individuals. With the development of the internet, information is processed and distributed much more quickly. How do institutional investors stay ahead of individual investors? Utilizing ETFs and financial futures.

How can individual investors try to keep pace with institutions? Track the activity of institutional insiders, that is, the senior executives within publicly traded corporations. An insider may have reason to buy or sell the company stock that goes well beyond company prospects. Often an insider will sell company stock strictly for tax purposes. However, when insider activity, either buying or selling, moves dramatically in one direction or another, every investor should pay attention. On that note, please pull in your chairs and pay particular note, as Bloomberg highlights Insiders Exit Shares at Fastest Pace in Two Years:

Executives at U.S. companies are taking advantage of the biggest stock-market rally in 71 years to sell their shares at the fastest pace since credit markets started to seize up two years ago.

Sales by CEOs, directors and senior officers have accelerated to the highest level since June 2007, two months before credit markets froze, as the S&P 500 rebounded from its 12-year low in March. The increase is making investors more skittish because executives presumably have the best information about their companies’ prospects.

In typical fashion, analysts assess this insider activity as nothing more than an attempt to lock in the returns of the recent equity rally. I seriously discount that. I view major moves in insider activity as a signal of strong, macroeconomic outlook. If the insider activity was more trading related, then the insiders would not actually sell the company stock but would more likely hedge it via purchasing put options.

What do all these insiders see on our economic horizon which is leading them to sell on such a massive scale? Well, the World Bank sees dark clouds out there. Bloomberg reports,  World Bank Cuts Forecast for Global Growth to 2.9%:

The World Bank said the global recession this year will be deeper than it predicted in March and warned that a flight of capital from developing nations will swell the ranks of the poor and the unemployed.

The world economy will contract 2.9 percent, compared with a previous forecast of a 1.7 percent decline, the Washington- based lender said in a report today. Growth will be 2 percent next year, down from a 2.3 percent prediction, the bank said.

This outlook on the global economy does contrast with a more sanguine view provided by the IMF.  While economic forecasts from different organizations and analysts will often vary, there is nothing vague about massive insider activity, and right now they are headed for the exits.

LD

Barack Obama: Federal ‘Helicopter Parent’

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 21st, 2009 9:47 AM |

Happy Father’s Day!!

Is Barack Obama anything more than a federal version of the dreaded “helicopter parent?” I’m serious.

We have all witnessed overbearing and overprotective parents hovering over their offspring from youth soccer through middle school teasing and all the way into the workplace. In my opinion, our nation now suffers from generations nurtured without true hardship or failure.

We are now paying the price.

What truly drives and motivates many to succeed? (Please understand that I do not define success as purely monetary.) However one defines success, there is little doubt the greatest motivation is always the fear of failure. That fear does not abate as one attains ever higher levels of achievement. Why? The intangible quality, the fear of failure, is embedded in the character of an individual from a very early age.

How does one “develop” that intangible quality? Take risks and fail. Obviously, I am not encouraging taking imprudent risks that would place one in a position of excessive physical, mental, emotional, or monetary harm. However, I strongly encourage individuals from an early age to move outside their comfort zone in order to experience the discomfort associated with the fear of failing. In so doing, the foundation for success will be poured and then cemented.

Against this backdrop, I have mixed feelings about the launching of the new Consumer Protection Finance Agency. Why? I appreciate helping people gain a greater understanding of financial principles and products. At the same time, however, I fear many consumers may view this agency as a “safety net” that will preclude or prevent ill-conceived or inappropriate products from coming to market in the first place. Why may they think that?

A consumer who witnesses violations of moral hazards at almost every level will come to expect the same for them at the personal level. Many consumers are already experiencing these situations to a degree via the non-economic refinancing of their mortgages through the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae ‘piggy bank.’

Please do not confuse my writing with a lack of willingness to help and assist people. In fact, I sincerely hope Sense on ¢ents plays an ever increasing role in promoting financial literacy. However, the greatest help and assistance starts at home and in the classroom.

Obama should be pounding and overemphasizing principles of strong family units along with the necessity for educational advancement. I give Obama credit for his timely message, “We Need Fathers to Step Up,” but we need this message not only on Father’s Day but 365 days a year. I know that education is a major initiative within the Obama administration, but I do not hear or see an airing of the cold, brutal facts primarily within our urban education systems (i.e. a 50% high school dropout rate in major urban settings).

In summary, I believe our nation suffers financially and morally from a system promoting an overprotective sense of entitlement when what we truly need is a reemergence of the fear of failure that stemmed from The Great Depression.

I hope that readers do not view my writing as cold, but rather more in the spirit of a parent who wants to see every individual and community achieve true and lasting success.

Happy Father’s Day to all the Dads in the world who are “allowing” their children to fail.

LD

NoQuarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle, Sunday Evening at 8PM

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 20th, 2009 6:23 PM |

UPDATE: The show has concluded, but you can listen to a recording in its entirety by clicking the Play button on the audio player below. Once the playback has started, you can fast forward or rewind to any portion of the show by clicking at any point along the play bar.

*******************

Please join me Sunday evening from 8-9 p.m. ET for NoQuarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle. While the equity markets retracted somewhat this week, bonds, commodities, and currencies remain well within recent ranges. Away from the markets, the Obama administration proposed a widespread revamping of financial regulations. I look forward to navigating these topics.

The most important topic of all remains the health of our economy. I am extremely pleased to have as my guest an individual who is uniquely well positioned to comment on our economy from a wide perspective. Rob Tortorella is the President and Founder of Corrosion Products and Equipment in Rochester, NY. Rob founded his industrial engineering and supplies company in the late 1980s and has grown it organically and via acquisition into a multi-million dollar enterprise. Corrosion operates throughout the Northeast and also has significant Caribbean based operations. I am not embellishing in stating that Rob and Corrosion truly define the American dream!!

Rob’s business and personal relationships marvel at his vision, integrity, and unbridled enthusiasm. Please join me for my interview with Rob Tortorella, an individual filled with unparalleled perspective and inspiration. I am honored to have him join me this Sunday evening.

These are truly historic times in the global economy. Let’s “navigate the economic landscape” without the pandering or nonsense found elsewhere! What is on your mind? What would you like to address? Please share your questions and thoughts by calling in to (347) 677-0792, and also join our live chat room, which I’ll start up about 10 minutes before the show begins. Many thanks to Larry Johnson and the rest of the team at NoQuarterUSA blog for providing such a vibrant vehicle as NoQuarter Radio. I look forward to having you join me Sunday evening as we collectively navigate the economic landscape!!

LD

Sense on Cents Recommended Weekend Reading

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 20th, 2009 12:30 PM |

Let’s “span the globe” and get an international perspective on financial developments that impact all of us whether we know it or not.

Moving across the ‘pond,’ we can get a taste as to how the finest ‘Scotch’ turned bitter, in reviewing:

Decline of West Where Mathewson Rues What RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland) Wrought
by Simon Clark, Rodney Jefferson, and John Helyar
Bloomberg

Taking a truly global perspective and realizing the magnitude of the worldwide recession, we are reminded of how blessed we are:

World Hunger Reaches 1 Billion People, U.N. Says
Assocated Press
Wall Street Journal; June 19, 2009

Lest we forget the historic nature of President Obama’s speech in Cairo, how do Europeans view the impact of that speech? Let’s review:

Obama’s New World Order
by Nick Whitney
Project Syndicate

Moving eastward, let’s take the pulse of the long term predicament facing The People’s Republic of China and review:

China’s Savings Problem and the Consumption Constraint
by Michael Pettis
China Financial Markets (linked at Wall Street Pit)

I hope this quick trip around the globe helps us all appreciate the varied nature of world cultures and the issues facing all of us.  As such, I pray that collectively the stronger and better part of our human spirit will prevail as we work our way through and over the global economic landscape.

Enjoy!!

LD

The Wall Street “Sausage-Making” Process

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 20th, 2009 9:01 AM |

Why do pigs need to go through such a curing process before finding their way to market? The innards of a pig are filled with all sorts of waste. In the same vein, the new Wall Street pig, otherwise known as an x-Tender security (but hereby deemed Porky Pig at Sense on Cents), is also filled with similar “junk.” I will try to make this quick, but bring a mask as we navigate the Wall Street sausage factory.

Please recall from my post yesterday, “An Auction-Rate Pig by Any Other Name Is Still a Pig”, that this ‘new’ Wall Street product is merely a revised version of THE LARGEST fraud perpetrated in the history of finance. This “pig” allows municipalities to address long-term funding needs via the short term debt market. The arbitrage involved in that process is akin to slaughtering the pig and making sausage.

Given the stench surrounding this product, take a deep breath as we tip-toe through the pigsty and move into the sausage factory. The Wall Street Journal can serve as our tour guide as it writes, Belt-Tightening by States Squeezes Cities and Towns. Let me connect the dots.

As this article highlights, municipalities across our country are increasingly financially strapped by a combination of decreasing tax revenues and lessened state funding. Regrettably, these municipalities are forced to cut expenses via a reduction in services and layoffs. Additionally, it is only logical to expect that municipalities will increase taxes to bridge their financial gap.

Add it all up, though, and it is very clear that an overwhelming number of municipalities in our nation are not as creditworthy today as a year or two ago. When credit ratings decline, borrowing costs go up. Those increased borrowing costs further squeeze the municipalities. What to do? Let’s enter the sausage factory.

With the blessing of the SEC, and the wizardry of financial engineers on Wall Street, municipalities can address long-term funding needs by borrowing money via the short-term market with a ‘promise’ to repay the funds if the short-term market shuts down. These municipal deals, much like sausage, are packaged and distributed via money market funds that incorporate a variety of short term deals. As such, the poorer credit quality of the municipality is “processed” and sold without investors fully appreciating the contents of the money market fund.

This works, right? The municipality receives the badly needed funds and the Wall Street banks earn their fees. Meanwhile, investors – who by nature move in and out of money market funds expecting them never to “break the buck” (meaning the funds will always maintain a $1.00 net asset value) – are kept in the dark.

Investors should appreciate that money market funds will likely “break the buck” going forward. All one needs to do is review the fiasco involved with the longstanding money market fund, The Reserve Fund.  Investors in that money market fund are now involved in a protracted legal dispute and the value of the fund is truly a great unknown. What happened? The fund took increased credit risk in a variety of products. Investors were clueless of these credit risks.

The same “sausage-making” is going on with this new x-Tender product. I exhort every investor to “check the contents” and ask the “butcher”, that being your broker or financial planner, as to what is going into that money market fund before you buy it.

LD

Who Protects Investors from Regulators?

Posted by Larry Doyle on June 19th, 2009 2:44 PM |

Is there anything worse than being violated by an individual in a position of trust? Crimes perpetrated by regular citizens are one thing, but crimes perpetrated by individuals in a position of public trust, in my opinion, are the most heinous. I am speaking of members of the clergy, teachers, law enforcement, and public servants.

When engaged in private business, individuals typically remain on guard from fraudulent and criminal behavior. That innate defense mechanism is usually relaxed when engaged with a public or quasi-public official. Given that vulnerability, the violation is far more painful due to the emotional damage even if the actual financial costs are minimal.

As I go down this path, let me emphasize the obvious – that is, the presumption of innocence and due process.

1. Today we learn that as part of the case against Allen Stanford, an indictment has also been handed down against Antiguan financial regulator Leroy King. Bloomberg reports that King not only took bribes from Stanford but also showed Stanford information relating to the government’s developing case.

If in fact these allegations are true, King aided and abetted the fraud which is speculated to be of a magnitude of $1-7 billion dollars.

2. In regard to the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme, we have no evidence to indicate criminal intent or activity on behalf of anybody at the SEC. That said, the SEC – by its own admission – failed to perform its duties. For those impacted by the Madoff fraud, the lack of accountability by the SEC is no less damaging than if there were criminal activity. Why is that? The length of time over which Madoff perpetrated the scheme along with the amount of evidence provided by Harry Markopolos was so overwhelming and should have minimized the damage, both financial and emotional.

3. We do have evidence of potential culpability on behalf of FINRA in the Auction-Rate Securities fraud. FINRA was headed by Mary Schapiro, current head of the SEC. This fraud is MANY MULTIPLES the size of the fraud perpetrated by Allen Stanford. Professionals, both inside and outside of the financial industry, have estimated that there are anywhere from $80 billion to $175 billion ARS (of a $330 billion market) still outstanding.

Let’s take the midpoint of those estimates, $125 billion, as a best guess of outstanding ARS positions. These securities do not actively trade, like government bonds, but in speaking with Kevin O’Connor of Second Market, he shared that bonds trade around 75 cents on the dollar. Thus, we are looking at approximately $30 billion in losses on a mark-to-market basis.

FINRA’s potential culpability stems from the fact that they liquidated their own ARS holdings in 2007. I have asked repeatedly and will put forth once again, for the benefit of those thousands of investors and billions of dollars:

-what was the exact trade date of FINRA’s ARS liquidation?
-through whom did they liquidate their ARS position?
-what price were they paid for their ARS position?
-did they possess material non-public information about the ARS market failing and act upon it?

The U.S. attorney and SEC are investigating executives from Lehman (Gia Rys, Alex Kirk) for potentially front running the ARS market in 2007. Will we ever find out if FINRA did the same? FINRA is charged with protecting investors. They certainly failed to protect investors in Auction-Rate Securities.

4. Given the fraud involved in the marketing and distribution of ARS, I am blown away by the fact that the SEC, now headed by Ms. Schapiro, blessed the marketing and distribution of the new version of municipal ARS, known as x-Tender, or henceforth called Porky Pig here at Sense on ¢ents. Please see my post earlier today, An Auction-Rate Pig by Any Other Name Is Still a Pig.

Sad but true, as we enter the Brave New World of the Uncle Sam economy, investors need to remain diligent and should not assume that regulators are necessarily protecting them.

LD






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