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HomeTea Is Served
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 4th, 2009 4:45 PM |
I strongly believe Congress and the Obama administration know that the American public has no appetite for further government bailouts. This public demeanor presents a challenge for a government that has gotten used to writing big checks for Wall Street, the Stimulus, and automotive companies.
What is the federal government to do for municipalities, insurance companies, commercial real estate companies, or others who may go bankrupt?
Secretary Geithner has laid the groundwork for government takeover of institutions deemed to present systemic risk. How that power is effected or implemented will be very interesting. (more…)
G-20: Commitments, Comments, Questions!!
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 2nd, 2009 1:14 PM |
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown just delivered a statement highlighting the results of the G-20 conference in London. There must have been a lot of work done behind the scenes over the last few months because it’s hard to imagine there was a lot of debate over issues within a 36 hour time frame at this conference. I will grant the world’s political leaders their due as it is most important at times like these to convey a strong, uniform front.
Let’s review the objectives and commitments, each followed by questions and/or comments that I have:
1. Address countries providing tax havens.
My question: who will police?
2. Develop a Financial Accounting Stability Board to regulate currently unregulated financial entities, primarily hedge funds.
My questions: how will it be staffed, operated, and judgments adjudicated? (I don’t like FASB as the acronym to be confused with Federal Accounting Standards Board)
3. Develop global policies and outline to address compensation
My questions: who and how will this be implemented? how will it be regulated? will there be punishments for those not participating?
4. Develop a global systemic risk oversight body.
My Question: who and how? (more…)
Putting Perfume on a Pig!!
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 2nd, 2009 9:45 AM |
***Bumped up from original publication time of 7:30AM. The FASB has now just voted its approval of the change in mark-to-market accounting.
It is speculated that the FASB (Federal Accounting Standards Board) will today relax its rule known as the mark-to-market. This rule requires firms under the FASB’s purview to mark their assets to changing market prices on an ongoing basis. The institutions subject to this rule have been lobbying FASB and Congress for a change because the markets for these assets have imploded and in certain cases totally dried up.
What does the FASB plan to do? The FASB is going to cave to the lobbying pressure and will allow institutions to use their own internal models based upon cash flow analysis to price these assets. This change in the mark-to-market will not only allow institutions the flexibility to not mark down certain assets, but simultaneously mark up other assets.
The media only presents the impacted assets as “hard to value” or the dreaded “mortgage-backed securities” or “securitized assets”. In fact, many of these assets are very simple and plain vanilla. Let’s enter the world of the Federal Home Loan Banks.
The FHLB system consists of 12 regional banks and it provides liquidity (capital) for its respective members to operate. The FHLB system invests its own capital, primarily in plain vanilla conventional mortgages (Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae) and Jumbo ARMS (adjustable rate mortgages) and fixed-rate pass-thrus. Certain banks within the FHLB system may have moved slightly off the plain vanilla path to purchase a small percentage of sub-prime assets, but that was much more the exception than the norm. (more…)
March 2009 Market Review
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 31st, 2009 7:47 PM |
The markets, overall, experienced a very solid rebound this month. Technically, the market got oversold bottoming out on March 6th when the S&P 500 hit the devilish level of 666!! Perhaps some divine intervention prevailed and shed a wee bit of grace on the market in the spirit of Saint Patrick. Perhaps not, as well. In any event, we rebounded close to 20% over the last three weeks. The bounce has allowed us to catch our breath but I caution everybody to remain on guard.
The rebound gained support from the following factors as well:
1. stabilization in the weekly unemployment claims at the 650k; level
2. improved figures in housing starts and new home sales;
3. speculation that the FASB will relax the mark-to-market; (more…)
Too Much Debt: Restructure, Default, or Devalue?
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 30th, 2009 11:10 AM |
Virtually every sector in the economy is faced with the same predicament: excessive debt. Whether residential housing, commercial real estate, consumer finance, automotive, municipal finance, or Uncle Sam, the current debt service along with future debt service is overwhelming.
In my opinion, the amount of influence with your lender (creditor) is directly related to the amount of debt and the terms of that debt. Regrettably for many taxpayers, the amount of debt from residential mortgage payments along with credit card bills and other household debts are not sufficient to create much influence. For larger corporations or municipalities, the influence is greater as these entities threaten to default. Thus, we see ongoing games of “chicken” being played between debtors and creditors while debt service typically gets restructured.
What about the largest debtor of all, that being Uncle Sam? He can’t play the “default” card and expect the market to treat him with any degree of credibility. Thus, Uncle Sam does not have the option of restructuring or default. The only real option left to Uncle Sam is devaluation. How does that get played out? In the very manner that the Fed and Treasury are doing right now. Pump money into the system like there is no tomorrow. (more…)
Audio Recording: NoQuarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 29th, 2009 9:06 PM |
In case you missed LD’s Sunday night radio show, just click on the Play button below for the audio recording. Once the playback has started, you can fast forward or rewind to any portion of the show by clicking at any point along the play bar.
It was a fabulous show, featuring Wall Street veteran and author Michael Panzner. Don’t miss it!
Sunday night, March 29th, 2009
NoQuarter Radio’s “Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle”
Tune in Sunday Evening to NoQuarter Radio’s “Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle”
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 29th, 2009 9:14 AM |
Please join us Sunday evening from 8-9 p.m. ET for NoQuarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle. With the stock market near 12 year lows, what is driving 
the flows? What is truly going on in the economy? Where are markets headed? Given the Washington political circus, how will new legislation impact the future of Wall Street? So much to cover.
I will be speaking with Michael J. Panzner, a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets who has worked in New York and London for such leading companies as HSBC, Soros Funds, ABN Amro, Dresdner Bank, and J.P. Morgan Chase.
He is the author of When Giants Fall: An Economic Roadmap for the End of the American Era, Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes, and The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider’s Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World.
He has also been a columnist at TheStreet.com’s RealMoney paid-subscription service and a contributor to AOL’s BloggingStocks.com. In addition, Panzner has appeared on or been quoted byCNBC, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, Barron’s Reuters, CNN, MarketWatch, BusinessWeek Online, TheStreet.com, Slate, CFO.com, and other print, radio and television outlets. (more…)
Bullish on Ms. Bair!!
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 28th, 2009 3:30 PM |
The Bull and the "Bair"
Is there anything worse than engaging a dishonest broker? Regrettably, our financial landscape (banking, investing, real estate, insurance, et al) is littered with shady brokers. How and why these people remain in business is another topic for another day. This piece is to highlight the integrity of an honest broker, Sheila Bair, and her involvement in the PPIP (Public-Private Investment Program) designed to handle toxic assets, both securities and loans.
For those unaware of the specifics of the PPIP, the toxic securitized assets will be sold via a facility known as the TALF (Term Asset Backed Lending Facility) and via partnerships with 5 large private money managers.
Toxic loans (unsecuritized) are the much more difficult part of the program. The bulk of these loans are likely still held on banks’ books at origination cost (not yet marked down) and pose a much greater disparity in perceived value and challenge in reaching agreeable prices. (more…)
Laszlo Birinyi: “Not a Time to Buy”
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 28th, 2009 12:10 AM |
Our Economic All-Star, Laszlo Birinyi, believes . . . Market Extremes Not a Time to Buy.
Based on Birinyi Associates’ proprietary market and sector indicators, we are at short-term extremes. Traders with aggressive accounts should look to take profits, and investors with more long-term accounts should be cautious on taking new positions. Consumer discretionary, technology, and materials stocks are the most extreme, while health care and utilities companies have lagged.
According to Birinyi:
The Overbought/Oversold indicators are short-term measures, while the Momentum indicators are for the longer term. The momentum indicates the market can certainly go higher, but we have had an abrupt move and some consolidation should be expected.
LD
