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HomeShake Hands With Uncle Sam
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 27th, 2009 5:30 AM |
When trading bonds on Wall Street, I always wanted to know what the largest accounts were doing. A handful of these accounts were so massive that in order to make a meaningful change in their portfolio they had to execute trades of monstrous size. In executing trades with these clients, there was enormous risk. That said, if I did not provide enough liquidity to the accounts then we would stop seeing their inquiry. Information is everything, so not seeing their business was even more dangerous than printing some of it. Given this balancing act, I would try to pick and choose my spots. Amongst these clients is the largest bond manager in the country, Pacific Investment Management Company, otherwise known as Pimco, headed by the legendary Bill Gross (one of our Economic All-Stars highlighted in the lower left sidebar).
Bill offers his thoughts on a monthly basis. Anybody with even passing interest in the markets should read his remarks. I will offer an overview: (more…)
Upon Further Review
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 26th, 2009 3:02 PM |
The FDIC just released its 4th quarter 2008 report. Read it and weep . . .
1. FDIC had a $26bln loss in the 4th quarter and now has only $18bln in reserves. (Little doubt that FDIC premiums — insurance premiums that banks must pay — will be increasing to rebuild reserves. All costs ultimately flow through to customers). In fact in today’s WSJ, FDIC Poised to Double Fees Charged to Lenders.
2. banking industry had first loss in 4th quarter 2008 since 1990
3. troubled institutions rose to 252 from 171 in 3rd quarter
4. banks have taken a total of $750 billion in writedowns on problem assets!!
5. banks have increased loan loss reserves to $69 billion from $32 billion
These numbers in conjunction with the Bank Stress Test lead me to make the relatively easy projections that:
— Government will have significant stakes in certain major institutions while continuing to take over and shut down many smaller institutions.
— Banks will continue to look to build reserves against future losses. This development along with a limited if not nearly non-existent “shadow banking system” (securitized consumer loan market) will mean that credit will be tight.
— As banks need to preserve capital, their ability to recruit and pay people will be severely restricted. I know employees are looking to leave these organizations to work at smaller shops without these problems.
— Although bank stocks are currently getting a bounce given government indications of support, these are not companies that have attractive growth prospects under these conditions.
LD
Ceteris Paribus
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 26th, 2009 2:01 PM |
Economic and budgetary analysis by their very nature often employ a “ceteris paribus” approach or similarly base line assumptions. Ceteris paribus, translated as “all other things being equal,” or base line assumptions are necessary given the fact that economic analysis has so many variables. Well, let me share with you that ceteris are NEVER paribus and base line assumptions are almost always skewed to bias the results in a desired direction.
***UPDATE: I was not aware at the time of my writing but it is reported that the Obama administration is projecting the economy will grow at a 3.2% GDP in 2010. That assumption is wildly optimistic. No respected economist would project that figure. Consensus has it in the 1.5-2% range. What does this mean? Well, lower growth means lower revenues, means higher deficits, means greater funding needs, means more borrowing, means higher government interest rates, means more “crowding out”, means slower growth for the economy going forward!!
There was little doubt about President Obama’s social agenda and economic platform during his campaign. While markets will somewhat discount campaign rhetoric, they do not discount economic reality. The markets are sending a strong signal that Obama’s economic proposals and proposed budget are anything but pro-growth. Obama Delivers $3.6 Trillion Budget Blueprint runs the risk of raising taxes at a time of economic distress. Raising taxes was a prime factor that increased the economic malaise in the 1930s. Obama is willing to take that risk as he sticks to his campaign plan and is pressured by the liberal wing of the Democratic Party. (more…)
Going “All In”
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 26th, 2009 10:59 AM |
The government yesterday released the specifics of the Bank Stress Test to be undertaken by the 19 major banking institutions in our country. Those details in conjunction with the testimony provided this week by Treasury Secretary Geithner and Fed chair Bernanke provide a very clear signal as to the government’s approach to our economic problems. In my estimation they are clearly indicating they are going “all in!”
Before we get to the market reactions, allow me to share insights from a highly regarded bank analyst and then comment myself.
Most analysts and economists view the government’s worst case scenarios under the bank test as not much more severe than what many already expect. I’m an optimist by nature but live by the mantra of hope for the best, prepare for the worst. The market will discount the government’s worst case. (more…)
Put Your Brokers and Bankers in Competition
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 25th, 2009 12:00 PM |
Every global financial enterprise has been hard pressed to maintain, let alone grow, revenues given the economic turmoil. With assets held in portfolio experiencing increasing levels of delinquencies and defaults, these institutions are all forced to set aside more reserves. How do businesses respond? Cut expenses and increase fees wherever and however possible. Who pays? You!!
I regularly see a sleight of hand at work on behalf of banks, insurance companies, money managers and other financial intermediaries to generate greater fees. While you will regularly be solicited with new and improved product offerings, how often are you getting the call that a fee is being increased and you may want to shop around for a better rate.
In an attempt to help you navigate this landscape, I strongly encourage you to approach your brokers and bankers and request a grid-like structure highlighting the basic products on one axis and the fee structure on the other axis. While more structured products and specialized services can be worthy of higher fees, a whole host of basic products fall into the plain vanilla category. (more…)
Caveat Emptor
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 25th, 2009 8:49 AM |
The equity markets across all sectors have gotten off to a very rocky start for 2009 (down 15% on average). In the midst of that, a lot of institutions and individuals have fled to the safety of short term government funds, money market funds that now benefit from a government backstop, and other cash alternatives. On average, these investments pay Wall Street and fund managers perhaps anywhere from .1% to .3% of the assets being managed. Those fees will not make the managers rich anytime soon. How do they respond? Welcome to the world of “principal protected notes.”
These structured notes are marketed to track an underlying index (say the S&P 500) while guaranteeing no loss of principal. Wow. Sounds like a great product. Where do I sign? Well, hold on just a second. I am not stating that structured notes do not have some degree of merit, but one needs to be very cautious in fully understanding how these notes work before purchasing. (more…)
Breaking News…Citi “National Bank??”
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 22nd, 2009 10:24 PM |
UPDATED from late last night . . .
I just proposed on LD’s Dollars and Sense the idea that the markets would force Citigroup into the government’s hands. I thought it would occur within a month. In just checking the WSJ newswire it appears that executives from Citi are negotiating with the government as I write this. The fact that Citi is looking to broker a transaction currently is effectively an admisson on their part that they are technically insolvent. While the U.S. Eyes Large Stake in Citi, the common shareholders in Citi would be seriously diluted. How would creditors be treated? At this stage I would guess that creditors will be untouched. I would imagine that if this transaction occurs, other banking shares will trade down in sympathy.
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Tune In to Larry Doyle’s “Dollars and Sense” on No Quarter Radio
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 22nd, 2009 5:22 PM |
Please join us this evening from 8:00 to 9:00 p.m. ET on No Quarter Radio for LD’s Dollars and Sense. These are truly historic times in the global economy. Let’s “navigate the economic landscape” without the pandering or nonsense found elsewhere!
We have two very interesting guests joining us. Lynn Marshall has one of the most unique backgrounds in the world of finance today. How does one develop a background that includes senior level experience in investment banking, agriculture, and community banking? Think Lynn has some amazing perspectives on the economy and markets? Don’t miss him.
Additionally, in light of the developments at Stanford Financial, we are very happy to have John Moynihan return to our show to discuss the dynamics in the world of offshore banking. Find out more than you could ever imagine by talking to these enlightened experts on LD’s Dollars and Sense, starting at 8 p.m. ET.
What are your questions and comments for me? Please share your questions and thoughts by calling in to (347) 677-0792, and also join our live chat room, which I’ll start up about 10 minutes before the show begins!
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Leading Wall Street Analyst Speaks
Posted by Larry Doyle on February 22nd, 2009 4:29 PM |
I worked in the mortgage business on Wall Street for 23 years. During that time period I had the good fortune of developing relationships with some of the finest minds in this sector. While I do not know Laurie Goodman personally, I can tell you that there is no one individual in the market today whom investors follow more closely when it comes to developments in this space. While Ms. Goodman does work in a business that is actively engaged with investors, I have always appreciated her perspectives as being untainted by bias and merely reflecting an extremely professional and honest outlook.
What does Ms. Goodman think about President Obama’s plans for housing? It would appear that there may be all sorts of unintended consequences and misaligned incentives in this proposal. Regrettably plans that are well intended often do not necessarily achieve their desired results. I strongly recommend you read Mortgage Plan Aids Liars About Income to gain a fuller appreciation of this proposal.
LD
