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HomeDon’t Try This at Home
Posted by Larry Doyle on April 18th, 2009 5:08 PM |
Have you ever watched a stuntman spin a sports car in a sharp 180 degree maneuver? Many stunts come with the advance warning: Don’t Try This at Home.
Not that the current actions of both the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve are stunts, but their maneuvers also come with a serious warning signal . . . and it reads: INFLATION!!
Given the doubling in size of the Fed’s balance sheet, if and when the economy catches, the multiplier effect on our domestic money supply will be akin to throwing lighter fluid and a match on a field full of hay. That inferno can create a scenario worse than our current economic predicament.
The WSJ reports:
“The key to preventing inflation will be reversing the programs, reducing reserves, and raising interest rates in a timely fashion,” he (Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn) said.
Reversing the programs? With all due respect, if people think the Fed or anybody else is uniquely qualified to drain trillions in liquidity from our markets in a precise manner prior to inflation running rampant, then they are sadly mistaken. Please remember that one of the biggest factors in determining the rate of inflation is the mere expectation of inflation itself. In so many words, our economy may start to experience inflation prior to changes in certain fundamentals in the economy.
While the WSJ reports, Fed’s No. 2 Allays Worries About Stimulus, please remember that any medication that is overused, if not unintentionally abused, can be very dangerous if not fatal. We need look no further than the use of CDS (credit default swaps). CDS used properly provide a valid means of hedging risk. Similarly, increasing the money supply via an increase in the use of the Fed’s balance sheet and assorted Treasury programs can be an appropriate medication.
However, have you ever heard a patient indicate an exact point in time when they knew they were using medication inappropriately, if not in an abusive fashion? Have you ever witnessed a patient who has misused medication to be able to turn his life around on a dime?
I appreciate Mr. Kohn’s confidence in the Fed’s abilities, but neither he nor the Fed have experience in dealing with a situation like this.
Don’t think for a second that the cure can’t be worse than the disease.
LD
Is the Party REALLY Over?
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 27th, 2009 11:58 AM |
There is NO doubt that our financial markets and financial firms will experience significant changes in regulation on a going forward basis. Turbo-Tim Geithner laid out those plans this week. President Obama is hosting the heads of the major banks at noon today to lay the groundwork for the universal acceptance of the new rules, amongst other topics.
Over the next few weeks and months, new regulations will be defined and a new division of responsibilities will be outlined amongst the various bodies (Fed, Treasury, SEC, FDIC, FINRA, CME). Rest assured, there will be some power grabs by the heads of these agencies and regulatory bodies in the process.
We have clearly just come through an ENORMOUS party on Wall Street, leaving our entire economy with a MASSIVE hangover. Do not forget, though, as with any good party, we need to review who was working the door, who got let in, who got the discount cover, who brought some attractive friends, and who was taking a little something on the side. I won’t dare venture as to who left together. (more…)
FDIC . . . For Doing It Correctly
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 19th, 2009 2:41 PM |
Sense on Cents is very judicious in selecting our Economic All-Stars (highlighted in the left sidebar). These individuals continually display a level of professionalism, maturity, consistency, and integrity which are not commonly found in our financial or political spectrum. I deeply appreciate their insights and perspectives and enjoy sharing them with our audience at Sense on Cents and No Quarter USA.
I thank Susan and Andy for tipping me off to remarks made earlier today in which Sheila Bair Says “Too Big to Fail” Strategy for Financial Institutions Must End. The administration and other political pundits are trying to make the case that the Federal Reserve should serve as the systemic risk regulator. In my opinion, Sheila Bair should occupy that role. There is a major political battle developing over this turf. Make no mistake that how this battle plays out will have deep and longstanding implications for our financial system as a whole and for individual consumers. (more…)
The Fed Levers Up
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 18th, 2009 6:30 PM |
When the economy experiences a massive delevering process, the void in the economy needs to be filled. There has been and will continue to be ongoing debate about the effectiveness of the stimulus plan, Obama’s proposed budget, ongoing government bailouts of a variety of industries, and moves made by the Treasury and Federal Reserve. Has enough been done? Is too much being done? Are our global partners pulling their weight? Are protectionist measures likely to exacerbate our economic problems? The answers to these questions will not be known for years.
Today’s action, Fed’s New Steps Shake Up Markets, is a sign that as everybody is delevering (selling assets purchased with borrowed money), the Federal Reserve is levering up. The Fed has indicated they will purchase billions more than previously advertised in U.S Treasury securities, mortgages, and consumer related assets. Why? By making these purchases, the Fed will attempt to drive the rates for these products lower and reignite consumer and institutional demand for credit. The market responded in startling fashion as 10yr government rates dropped an unprecedented .50% !! Equity markets responded by moving higher by 1-2%. (more…)
Market Fades on the Close
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 16th, 2009 6:30 PM |
Monday’s price action in the equity markets was particularly interesting. The market opened firm, up approximately 1%, and continued to trade with a very firm tone all day. What precipitated the strong tone? Fed chair Ben Bernanke was interviewed on 60 Minutes last evening. On that show, Bernanke Defends Recovery Efforts in Rare TV Interview.
First and foremost, it is very uncharacteristic for anybody from the Fed to consent to an interview targeted at a general audience. I view this as Bernanke trying to make the case for himself, the Fed, and the economy during these challenging times. In fairly short order, Bernanke has gained significantly greater credibility than his colleague, Secretary Geithner. Bernanke also spoke well of the economy turning around later this year IF the financial system recovers. That is a mighty big IF!! (more…)
Lessons from Bear Stearns
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 16th, 2009 10:37 AM |
It was one year ago that the Federal Reserve and Treasury delivered Bear Stearns into the hands of JP Morgan for $2 a share. Bear Stearns stock had traded above $170 a share in 2006. With the passage of time, what are some of the lessons learned and what questions remain unanswered.
1. Although Bear Stearns employees and shareholders may not qualify a price of $2 a share (revised to $10 a few weeks later) as being saved, would the financial system have been better off letting Bear totally fail? Why? If Bear had failed, many people do not believe we would have had the breakdowns in our financial systems that occurred because of Lehman’s failure.
2. Did Dick Fuld, CEO of Lehman, assume that the Fed and Treasury would save Lehman much as they did Bear? Was he less aggressive in pursuing increased capital injections during the Summer 2008 as a result? Many people believe this to be the case. (more…)
Fed Releases Names of AIG’s Creditors
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 6th, 2009 9:03 PM |
Under pressure from Congress this week to release the names of AIG’s creditors, the Federal Reserve’s Vice Chairman Donald Kohn clearly got the message. The Fed has acquiesced in releasing that Top U.S., European Banks Got $50 Billion in AIG AID.
My immediate reaction to this news is how interesting that the bulk of these institutions are European. What does that tell me? These European banks were getting plowed by Wall Street with a lot of sub-prime backed CDOs and when the dam was breaking they wanted to hedge their position. Market speculation is that European institutions own twice the amount of toxic assets as U.S. based institutions. That exposure on top of their delinquent loans in eastern Europe is crushing a number of western European banks. Who are they? Start by looking at the list, included in the above-referenced article, of AIG creditors.
In providing the hedge – which is the insurance – AIG received a fat premium but has been paying for it ever since. Actually, AIG only truly paid for it up until last September . . . the American taxpayer has been and will continue to be paying for it for a long time. Where were the regulators when we really needed them?
LD
Dead Cat Bounce
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 4th, 2009 3:00 PM |
The equity markets are up almost 3% today. Did we just put in a bottom? Can we at long last expect better price performance? Are we seeing a turnaround in the economy? Well, in Wall Street parlance today’s price action is known as a “dead cat bounce.” I had mentioned a day or two ago that a short term RSI (relative strength index) had fallen below 30%. Anytime that index gets that low, the market is susceptible to a bounce to force some short covering.
The Federal Reserve released a report, known as the Beige Book, and highlighted that they expect No Turnaround Soon in the economy.
Additionally, even though the major market averages are up 3%, why is it that the major capital providers are down significantly on the day? Look at the price changes for the following: (more…)
The All Powerful Federal Reserve
Posted by Larry Doyle on June 12th, 2009 8:10 AM |
What would our founding fathers think about the omnipotence of the Federal Reserve?
Is there any doubt that the true greatness of our Constitution is found in the balance of power amongst the executive, legislative, and judicial branches. Where in that mix is the power centered in the financial branch? Who controls the financial branch? Welcome to the kingdom of the Federal Reserve.
To whom does the Fed answer? How transparent is the Fed? Can the Fed be too powerful? Is the Fed “too big to fail?” How skilled is the Fed? Is it infallible? Does the Fed get involved in our political process? So many questions. Such limited clarity.
As our Brave New World of the Uncle Sam Economy evolves, the Fed has never been more influential in our economic and political process. Is the Fed too powerful? Let’s navigate the landscape of the Fed and see what we learn.
Rather than my regurgitating answers to frequently asked questions of the Fed, please allow me to link to the Fed’s own site for these “frequently asked questions.”
Let’s dig deeper. I want to specifically address, two specific aspects which fall under, What are the Federal Reserve’s responsibilities?
-supervising and regulating banking institutions to ensure the safety and soundness of the nation’s banking and financial system and to protect the credit rights of consumers
-maintaining the stability of the financial system and containing systemic risk that may arise in financial markets
Looking back over the course of the last ten years, how could any self-respecting central banker, politician, financial executive, market analyst, or financial blogger give the Fed anything other than a failing grade in these realms. Does that failing grade deserve to be assigned more to former Fed chair Alan Greenspan than Ben Bernanke? Perhaps, but the Fed as a whole failed miserably on these critically important initiatives.
As we move forward on our economic landscape, how will our “political leaders” within the executive and legislative branches address the allocation of responsibilities within the financial system? (more…)
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Posted in Federal Reserve, General | 8 Comments »