Posted by Larry Doyle on April 22nd, 2010 2:44 PM |
I have become a huge fan of Rick Davis of the Consumer Metrics Institute, the Colorado-based effort that tracks real-time consumer purchases to project future economic growth. Recall that during my March 28th conversation with Rick on No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle, Rick projected that 2nd quarter 2010 GDP would register a -1.5% (yes, that is a negative GDP for 2nd quarter 2010). You can read a recap of my interview with Rick here.
What does Rick see lately? Let’s navigate. Rick wrote yesterday:
Speaking of what we do, our Contraction Watch (see top chart below) continues to show a contraction event that has not yet formed a clear bottom. The contraction has, however, extended long enough that the likelihood of the dreaded ‘double dip’ has become very real. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 29th, 2010 7:17 AM |
If the American consumer represents 70% of our economy, shouldn’t economists study consumer spending as much as possible? Well, one individual, and he is not a trained economist,–he is actually a physicist by trade– has done and is doing just that. Who is this visionary? Richard C. Davis of the Consumer Metrics Institute.
I hosted Richard on my radio show, No Quarter Radio’s Sense on Cents with Larry Doyle Welcomes Rick Davis, last evening. If you have any interest in the economy (and if the economy is even peripherally linked to the markets), you MUST listen to this interview. Those who follow my work know I am not one taken to hyperbole, but last evening’s show was as good as it gets in terms of cutting edge analysis on the economy focused specifically on the consumer. (more…)
Posted by Larry Doyle on October 9th, 2009 11:30 AM |
High five to a good friend for sharing with us tremendous insights just released by Credit Suisse. While individuals can and should develop opinions on the economy and markets, the global flow of capital from investors (obviously central banks now count as investors given massive quantitative easing programs) will determine overall market levels. Let’s navigate and assess how Credit Suisse’s client base has positioned themselves and decipher what it all means.
Credit Suisse research analysts report the following:
We are close to finishing our marketing trip in the US and Continental Europe—and take a look at the main issues our clients are focused on at the moment.
1. Caveated bullishness: Hedge funds appear optimistic (focusing on Q3 earnings as the next catalyst). Long-only funds seem cautious, while retail investors are buying bonds rather than equity. We feel there is enough scepticism to leave us bullish.
LD’s comment: CS means bullish on equities.
2. Many asset allocators still prefer credit (bonds) to equity, so there is switching potential.
LD’s comment: Asset allocators are money managers, investment advisors, et al. This comment translates into the fact that money which has been allocated to the bond market could move into equities causing a move higher in equities and a move down in bonds.
3. Investors’ main dilemma: Why have margins stabilised at such high levels? Most feel the reason is cyclical (leaving limited upside in earnings), but we suspect it could be more structural.
LD’s comment: Margins refer to corporate profit margins. The fact that CS believes that profit margins are being supported by structural developments in companies and the economy is a VERY positive assessment as it indicates a change in the foundation of the global economy which would drive equities higher.
4. Economy: Very few clients are positioning themselves aggressively on a macro view. There is little confidence on final demand given the level of excess household leverage. A third of investors are bearish on US housing (too many, in our view). Clients still see inflation, not deflation, as the main risk.
LD’s comment: investors would appear to be more cautious than optimistic with concerns that there is excess liquidity from central banks which will ultimately lead to inflation.
5. Consensus catalyst for next leg down is severe dollar weakness (LD’s highlight), leading to a US bond funding crisis or government tightening fiscal policy too early. Two areas of worrying consensus: 99% of investors appear to be dollar bears and nearly everyone believes the Fed will be very slow to raise rates.
LD’s comment: if 99% of investors are dollar bears and are positioning themselves that way in one way, shape or form, then the dollar will find support. Why? When too many people are on one side of a boat, that boat tips. If the dollar does rally, then many ‘dollar carry trades’ may enter the ‘pain chamber’ and risk-based assets would likely sell off.
6. Regions: Strong consensus to be long of emerging markets (NJA is felt to have large upside potential if US retail sales recover and the dollar remains weak). Clients are more positive on Europe than they have been for the past two years. Investors have quickly capitulated on a tactically positive call on Japan. Renewed focus on domestic plays in dollar-linked countries (especially the Middle East).
LD’s comment: NJA is non-Japan Asia
7. Sectors: We believe most clients have a bar-bell type strategy. Consensus longs are tech and commodities/gold. We found far too many oil bulls for our liking. There is a huge variance of views on banks. Sectors where there is still doubt: life companies (too opaque), media, telecoms, steel and pharma. There were very few questions on defensives.
8. Style: Clients are looking for quality growth, shifting away from the credit-related plays.
Overall, I view this report as decidedly constructive on the economy and markets, albeit with plenty of reasons for caution.
Thoughts, comments, questions always appreciated.
Posted by Larry Doyle on March 13th, 2009 6:30 PM |
I am pleased to relaunch our weekly departure from “Central Station” on Saturday mornings. This endeavor here at Sense on Cents is a few hours of written Q/A with your resident host. I like to utilize the theme of a ride on the rails, so please allow me to expound.
With so many cross currents at play in the markets, economy, and world of global finance, where can one go to develop a framework of understanding, enjoy the company of friends, and make sense of the madness? Welcome to Sense on Cents “Central Station.” Our ride departs Saturday morning at 9 a.m. with an expected return at 12 noon. While we traverse the curves along our track, we can address a wide range of issues, including: Obama’s economic plans, Secretary Geithner’s outlook, the market performance this week, month, and year to date, developments overseas, the outlook for our financial regulatory structure, issues of personal finance, or anything else on your mind.
Our ride is most productive with as many people participating as possible. Please bring not only your questions, but also your views. Invite friends, neighbors, and colleagues along for the ride as well.
Your conductor is not a professional financial planner. I recommend that you consult with a licensed, qualified professional before making any investment decisions. I am merely a Wall Street veteran looking to help you navigate the economic landscape!!
Come on back tomorrow morning at 9, submit your questions in the comments section, and away we go.. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaall Aboard!!